Rocky Top Talk's week one ballot has been submitted to the College BlogPoll thusly:
|Last week's ballot|
A few notes:
- Expect Volatility Early. I firmly believe that early season polls contain no meaningful data. Other than knowing that some teams should be really good, a bunch may be good, and some are pretty bad, 59 completely independent observations don't give you enough information to make 120 partitions. But hey, it's fun.
- Oklahoma. Despite losing Bradford, the Oklahoma game was still a close one, and the stadium was a new venue for both teams. They're still a really good team, but I'm not ready to call their season over quite yet.
- Mississippi. Maybe week 1 was just full of jitters for them. Teams like this are why volatility is a good thing; if they prove to be an elite over the next few weeks, I have no problem bumping them right back among the elites. But right now, the data doesn't give a lot of support to the theory.
- Ohio State. Navy could legitimately be on a top 25 ballot this early, given how close that game was. Since I didn't put them on mine, I can't defend having OSU any higher.
Tennessee. I really want to wait on UT until after the UCLA game, just so we have something more than a cupcake to judge the Kiffin era by. The problem was that every edit I made caused Tennessee to float higher. I see nothing wrong with 22 at the moment, which in reality is saying "they might end in the top 10, but they might end 5-7" - and that applies to every team that could be on the ballot, really. But the fact is, Tennessee was a team that excelled in all the measurables that can be gleaned from a cupcake game. There is nothing in the available information to justify not considering them at the moment.
- Georgia. Sure, they were on the road and Oklahoma State is way up there. But I think the loss of Sturdivant is going to really hurt a passing game that was underwhelming in the first place. After week 1, their performance was rougher and shakier than Tennessee's; it doesn't mean they'll end up worse necessarily, but it does mean they should be ranked lower. For now.
- Teams not on the ballot. 59 teams have a win (FIU and TCU did not play). Of the 59 winners, plus TCU and FIU, perhaps 40 have reasonable arguments for the ballot. I wouldn't disagree with any of them.