College BlogPoll: Week 1 Ballot

Rocky Top Talk's week one ballot has been submitted to the College BlogPoll thusly:

 

Dropped Out: Oregon (#13), Florida State (#20), Iowa (#23).

A few notes:

  • Expect Volatility Early.  I firmly believe that early season polls contain no meaningful data.  Other than knowing that some teams should be really good, a bunch may be good, and some are pretty bad, 59 completely independent observations don't give you enough information to make 120 partitions.  But hey, it's fun.
  • Oklahoma.  Despite losing Bradford, the Oklahoma game was still a close one, and the stadium was a new venue for both teams.  They're still a really good team, but I'm not ready to call their season over quite yet.
  • Mississippi.  Maybe week 1 was just full of jitters for them.  Teams like this are why volatility is a good thing; if they prove to be an elite over the next few weeks, I have no problem bumping them right back among the elites.  But right now, the data doesn't give a lot of support to the theory.
  • Ohio State.  Navy could legitimately be on a top 25 ballot this early, given how close that game was.  Since I didn't put them on mine, I can't defend having OSU any higher.
  • Tennessee.  I really want to wait on UT until after the UCLA game, just so we have something more than a cupcake to judge the Kiffin era by.  The problem was that every edit I made caused Tennessee to float higher.  I see nothing wrong with 22 at the moment, which in reality is saying "they might end in the top 10, but they might end 5-7" - and that applies to every team that could be on the ballot, really.  But the fact is, Tennessee was a team that excelled in all the measurables that can be gleaned from a cupcake game.  There is nothing in the available information to justify not considering them at the moment.
  • Georgia.  Sure, they were on the road and Oklahoma State is way up there.  But I think the loss of Sturdivant is going to really hurt a passing game that was underwhelming in the first place.  After week 1, their performance was rougher and shakier than Tennessee's; it doesn't mean they'll end up worse necessarily, but it does mean they should be ranked lower.  For now.
  • Teams not on the ballot.  59 teams have a win (FIU and TCU did not play).  Of the 59 winners, plus TCU and FIU, perhaps 40 have reasonable arguments for the ballot.  I wouldn't disagree with any of them.

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