College BlogPoll: Week 1 Ballot
by Hooper on Sep 8, 2009 9:00 AM EDT
25 comments
Rocky Top Talk's week one ballot has been submitted to the College BlogPoll thusly:
 |
||
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida | |
| 2 | Texas |  1 |
| 3 | Southern Cal |  1 |
| 4 | Alabama | 1 |
| 5 | Penn State | 1 |
| 6 | California | 3 |
| 7 | Oklahoma State | 5 |
| 8 | Brigham Young | 9 |
| 9 | Boise State | 9 |
| 10 | Oklahoma | 6 |
| 11 | Georgia Tech | 3 |
| 12 | LSU | 4 |
| 13 | Mississippi | 3 |
| 14 | Ohio State | 7 |
| 15 | TCU | 1 |
| 16 | North Carolina | 3 |
| 17 | Virginia Tech | 6 |
| 18 | Kansas | 7 |
| 19 | Oregon State | 5 |
| 20 | Utah | 1 |
| 21 | Nebraska | 1 |
| 22 | Tennessee | |
| 23 | Georgia | 8 |
| 24 | Cincinnati | |
| 25 | Notre Dame | |
| Last week's ballot | ||
A few notes:
- Expect Volatility Early. I firmly believe that early season polls contain no meaningful data. Other than knowing that some teams should be really good, a bunch may be good, and some are pretty bad, 59 completely independent observations don't give you enough information to make 120 partitions. But hey, it's fun.
- Oklahoma. Despite losing Bradford, the Oklahoma game was still a close one, and the stadium was a new venue for both teams. They're still a really good team, but I'm not ready to call their season over quite yet.
- Mississippi. Maybe week 1 was just full of jitters for them. Teams like this are why volatility is a good thing; if they prove to be an elite over the next few weeks, I have no problem bumping them right back among the elites. But right now, the data doesn't give a lot of support to the theory.
- Ohio State. Navy could legitimately be on a top 25 ballot this early, given how close that game was. Since I didn't put them on mine, I can't defend having OSU any higher.
- Tennessee. I really want to wait on UT until after the UCLA game, just so we have something more than a cupcake to judge the Kiffin era by. The problem was that every edit I made caused Tennessee to float higher. I see nothing wrong with 22 at the moment, which in reality is saying "they might end in the top 10, but they might end 5-7" - and that applies to every team that could be on the ballot, really. But the fact is, Tennessee was a team that excelled in all the measurables that can be gleaned from a cupcake game. There is nothing in the available information to justify not considering them at the moment.
- Georgia. Sure, they were on the road and Oklahoma State is way up there. But I think the loss of Sturdivant is going to really hurt a passing game that was underwhelming in the first place. After week 1, their performance was rougher and shakier than Tennessee's; it doesn't mean they'll end up worse necessarily, but it does mean they should be ranked lower. For now.
- Teams not on the ballot. 59 teams have a win (FIU and TCU did not play). Of the 59 winners, plus TCU and FIU, perhaps 40 have reasonable arguments for the ballot. I wouldn't disagree with any of them.
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Tennessee
won’t be ranked in the top 25 by Florida unless we win vs UCLA pretty convincingly.
Kirk Herbstreit: And this years Heisman Trophy goes to .. TIM TEBOW, UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA!!!
[ Begin music]
Jim Ross: My.. My god, is that Eric Berry's music??!!
Kirk: I hope not ...
by bobo_the_vol on Sep 8, 2009 9:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So we should be ranked next week, you're saying?
Lou Brock loves Lamp.
by birdjam on Sep 8, 2009 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eactly ;-)
Kirk Herbstreit: And this years Heisman Trophy goes to .. TIM TEBOW, UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA!!!
[ Begin music]
Jim Ross: My.. My god, is that Eric Berry's music??!!
Kirk: I hope not ...
by bobo_the_vol on Sep 8, 2009 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK .........
I’ll be the first to say it. I know it’s only one game but MAN what a game ! I’m drink’n the Kiffin-Crompton Kool-aid and I’m liken it !!
Phil,GO VOLS !!!
by bulldurham on Sep 8, 2009 9:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Chris Low
has Tennessee ranked behind South Carolina. I almost threw up watching that game on Thursday
by golfballs03 on Sep 8, 2009 9:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I have to say
I really like this ballot. The only place I kind of disagree is with tOSU, and that will get settled after this week.
by Nashville on Sep 8, 2009 10:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Disagreement on tOSU
Higher up, or farther down? I know people who’d make a case for either ;-)
I got punk'd by UT's Athletic Department.
by bobo_the_vol on Sep 8, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
higher up
not in the top 10 necessarily, but maybe flip-flopped with LSU.
by Nashville on Sep 8, 2009 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My difficulty with OSU was Navy themselves.
Since I didn’t have Navy in the 25, I felt really odd having OSU any higher, considering how close they were to overtime. At home. Against a service academy.
I think that OSU would normally warrant a higher ranking, but with only one week to judge, any egg laid is still an egg.
by Hooper on Sep 8, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right.
I think your ranking is completely defensible – as your logic shows. it’s more my sense that tOSU got up by two touchdowns (I think it was 29-14) and then said, okay game over, and stopped worrying about Navy. All that said, TPryor really hasn’t shown the growth as a passer one might have expected by now, and that could become a real liability against an elite defense like USC. Next week, they might be a lot lower.
by Nashville on Sep 8, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If they lost next week,
the bump down might not be quite as severe since I’ve already taken huge chunks of real estate from them. It’ll depend, natch.
by Hooper on Sep 8, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If USC doesn't spank them like a disobedient child, then
USC is overrated. A 2pt interception return for a 2pt TD ?! Against Navy? C’mon. No way are they a top 10 program. Their schedule aside from 3 games should be ROMPer room, but they struggled against a sure win program.
I love the service academies but they are so undermanned against upper echelon D-1 schools because they just don’t have the athletes. They have great heart and execution, but c’mon… EGG
by memphispete on Sep 8, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Navy
has averaged over 8.5 wins for the past 6 years. They’re not a BCS caliber team, but they’ve been better than Notre Dame over that time span. I don’t think you’d be so dismissive if tOSU had beaten ND by the same score.
The thing to remember with Tressel too is that he plays pretty freaking conservatively. A 29-14 lead is way more than adequate for him in most games. I honestly think that he switched on cruise control, the defense fell asleep, and Pryor made a mistake.
I still think USC will win by 10+, but if they pull away before Q4, I’ll be very surprised.
by Nashville on Sep 8, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rebuttal
Navy has done that against what kind of schedule? They beat Towson (that’s in Baltimore for those unfamiliar), Rutgers, Wake Forest, Air Force, Army, SMU, Temple, and N Illinois. That’d be one good team (Wake, 7-5) and I’m rounding to get to a good team from last year.
How many of those wins were under the fellow who’s now at Georgia Tech, Paul Johnson, and to the earlier point how many were quality wins?
I agree the OSU defense fell asleep but letting someone from Navy get 50 yards after the catch and beat the “speedster” secondary into the end zone on an 85 yd bomb is a little ridiculous. No one could catch him?! It’s not like he has Florida speed… Coasting with a 14 pt lead is dangerous as we all know – excuse me, having a Fulmer/Chavis flashback, OK it’s gone.
I’d be pretty dismissive about someone beating ND as well. Their schedule should give them 10 wins, but that’s not a quality schedule. They are better than they have been, but they have been pretty abysmal. Now if they beat someone good – like Bama, Florida, etc – I’d give them their due. But since they haven’t beaten an SEC team in a while, that’s all academic.
A double digit win is nothing to sneeze at but it should be over before the 4th qtr rather than a tack on score when it’s basically over. Otherwise, USC isn’t in top form yet and is likely overrated.
by memphispete on Sep 8, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
First, Pitt, Ball St., and Rutgers were bowl teams on their schedule last year, in addition to the one you mentioned.
Second, we’re not trying to determine if Navy is a flash in the pan, like Vanderbilt last year or MissSt two years ago. Navy has sustained their success. There are a lot of major conference teams that have struggled to post 8 wins year-over-year with schedules that are almost as easy as Navy’s. You can pretty much pencil them in for 8 wins a year.
I don’t want to get too political here, but let’s suppose they played in a major conference, say the SEC, instead of playing as an independent. Let them play Kentucky’s 2008 schedule or Florida’s 2009 (not to suggest Florida would not beat the ever living crap out of them. They would).
You have 1 potentially difficult out-of-conference game and 3 gimmes. (UK: Louisville; Norfolk St, MTSU, WKU. UF: FSU; Charleston South, Troy, FIU). So, let’s look at Navy: Notre Dame; Towson, SMU, Temple.
Then you have 8 conference games. 5 against your division, and 3 against the other division. If you are Kentucky, you play, in theory, three tough division opponents (UF, UT, UGA) and two relative pushovers (Vandy, USC). In the other division, you play one permanent relative pushover, MissSt, and in 2008, one tough interdivision opponent and one easy one (Bama; Arky). If you are Florida, you play, in theory, two tough division opponents (UGA, UT), and three relative pushovers (UK, USC, Vandy). In the other division you play one permanent tough opponent, LSU, and in 2009, one tough – probably – interdivision opponent and one easy one (Arky; MissSt). To sum up then, 2008 UK gets probably 4 tough opponents and 4 easy ones. 2009 UF gets 4 tough opponents and 4 easy ones. Obviously I am basing this on traditional strength. 2009 Florida will probably only face challenges against Tennessee and FSU, and maybe LSU.
Let’s look at Navy. Tough opponents: Ball St., Pitt, Wake Forest, Rutgers. Easy opponents: Duke, Air Force, N. Illinois, Army.
Now I don’t see why that schedule is any less credible than the one played by 2008 Kentucky or 2009 Florida. We might be arguing about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin, here but the most credible storyline in my opinion is simply that tOSU got up 29-14 going into the Q4 against a good, but not great, Navy team, and fell asleep. Navy, never quitting, made them pay.
by Nashville on Sep 8, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There simply is no basis to believe Georgia is a Top 25 team
"Florida didnt win their first SEC title until 1991 and now they think they invented football."
-Ron Zook
by rustytanton on Sep 8, 2009 11:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Cincy needs to go higher.
If UT is 22nd for pasting a marginal D-1 at home, and leaving starters in up 42-7, then Cincy demolishing a Big-E favorite on the road has to be worth a good deal more.
You always forget that Nebraska is a state until they pop up in the news about some guy who has 25 kids buried in his backyard
-Ripped off from Deadspin
by Stuck in the Plains on Sep 8, 2009 11:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I probably should have, now that you mention it.
Putting Cincy at 22 would have helped me with my UT quandary as well.
by Hooper on Sep 8, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Everyone hit the panic switch on Cincy
b/c of the starters lost on D. But, the reason they had to rely on D so much was because of all of the starts lost on the offensive side. They appear to be the class of that conference.
You always forget that Nebraska is a state until they pop up in the news about some guy who has 25 kids buried in his backyard
-Ripped off from Deadspin
by Stuck in the Plains on Sep 8, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
At least SOMEBODY wants to be the class of the Big East.
by Hooper on Sep 8, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What else would you expect from Brian Kelly?
I also feel the need to note he ran a lot of empty-set against Rutgers, for those who said he’d be more of the same.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Graysnail on Sep 8, 2009 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vols go from 37th
to 34th in the “”http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings" >also receiving votes" race in the AP Poll
Will - Rocky Top Talk
by Will on Sep 8, 2009 12:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
37th to 34th ??
Now we know that the voters don’t really watch the games or dig through the box scores…
Maybe they’ll believe after UCLA…
by memphispete on Sep 8, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We are a 7.5 pt favorite (according to Caesar's) for those who care...
so my double digit win prediction requires no kool-aid.
and, just for the record, the 28-7 comment was a pure tweak to the Bruin fans because USC beat them last year by that score. I do think we will score about that many points. This is a great offensive scheme…
by memphispete on Sep 8, 2009 12:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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