Post-Police Blotter Hoops: What do we look like?
by memphispete on Jan 2, 2010 1:13 PM EST
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PrintBruce is doing the right thing by indefinitely suspending all 4 players. No waffling or delays. Bam. I love him for that.
The Kansas game goes from being a potentially-competitive upset to a painfully-outmatched blowout. And, it may be even more painful to watch the losses pile up against lesser teams. But Bruce has my full support - now more than ever.
Post - Wayne Chism (10.9/5.8/21min) and Kenny Hall (3.0/2.2/8min) have to pick up the slack created by Brian Williams absence. Can we replace his 5.9/5.4/17 min? If Wayne can be persuaded to stay under the basket and get a double-double every night while staying out of foul trouble and if Kenny Hall matures sooner rather than later. Since that will happen less frequently than it needs to, the answer is 'probably not'.
Point Guard - Bobby Maze has to keep his 2.7 A/TO ratio in tact as he logs IronMan-style minutes and the competition steps up. Can Josh Bone be a PG/SG combo? Now we really wish Hubert hadn't blown out his knee. Losing Melvin's 22 minutes is as big as his 6 ppg.
Shooting Guard - Scotty has to man up to replace Cam Tatum and become tougher. We lose 8.7/2.4 and an important 20 min with Cam's absence. Can Orlando make good decisions, play decent defense, get a couple more rebounds and hit key shots? Probably not, but he'll have to. Scotty has the talent. Does he have the mental toughness? He's the one guy who could start to replace...
The Glue Guy - Tyler Smith is worth a whole lot more than his 11.7/4.7/27. His A/TO is among the best in the nation at 2.8. He is a leader and the guy who can create his shot (except in the USC game). He's irreplaceable. Yet someone has to step up.
Recruiting class impact. Will all the guys still come? Will others sniff opportunity if some of the dismissals are permanent (and surely a couple will be)?
SEC East - This definitely puts us behind Kentucky and Florida and Vandy. We look a lot more like South Carolina and Georgia now.
NCAA - Could we still make the NCAA's? Highly improbable, but if Pearl pulls it off then it would be his best coaching job yet. Even if he doesn't pull it off, he still has my full support. To everyone still left on the team - Go Vols.
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I think we will too
We still have four starters remaining, and our starters are pretty good. Depth will be an issue, as Maze especially will have to play a lot of minutes. But I’ve seen Chism and Prince step up when Tyler gets in foul trouble. Now they just need to do it when he’s not playing at all. I think they can. Keep your fingers crossed.
by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 2, 2010 7:29 PM EST up reply actions
Let's pick the 18 games remaining (assuming the 4 lost players) just for fun:
We are # 19 now. Let’s assume this costs us 35 ranking slots and puts us at #54. That’s roughly in the Maryland, Northwestern, Gonzaga class (e.g. Bubble teams?). And, let’s assume we’d win straight up based on kenpom ratings (which isn’t the way it works).
That’d be 9-9 over the whole stretch. We’d end up 8-8 in conference and 19-11 overall, heading into the tournament. We’d also have lost 3 of the last four heading into the tournament – not a hot team. And, we’d have no real “resume” wins – except Memphis.
Is that enough to get us in? Probably not.
TEAM KenPom W/L
Charlotte 96 W
Kansas 3 L
Aub H 140 W
Miss H 29 L
Bama A 86 W
GA A 117 W
Vandy H 49 L
FL H 50 L
LSU A 157 W
SC H 79 W
Vandy A 49 L
KY A 14 L
GA H 117 W
SC A 79 W
FL A 50 L
KY H 14 L
Ark H 203 W
MSU A 15 L
Let’s pick the 18 games remaining (assuming the 4 lost players) just for fun:
uh….That really wasn’t much fun. :-(
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
Consistency will be the key.
Assuming our starting lineup looks something like:
PG – Maze
SG – Hopson
SF – Prince
PF – Woolridge/Hall
C – Chism
This is still a decent lineup, with McBee also in the mix. Unfortunately all these players suffer from horribly inconsistent play.
Prince could be a great glue guy if he would play every game like we’re playing Memphis. He is a great replacement for Tyler when he plays with intensity. He can get to the rim at will, when he really wants too (which is a bit of a redundant statement), and very disruptive defensively.
I’d also like to see Woolridge toughen up a little and learn a couple post moves. He’s too tall and athletic to hang out at the 3-point line all game. With his size and shooting ability, if he had a post up game, he could be a match-up nightmare for a lot of teams.
I don’t quite know what to expect from Hall, but he seems to have some toughness to him and could provide some quality post minutes. I’m sure we’ll see a little more of Steven Pearl there too.
Most of all, I think this is going to be the time for Hopson and Chism to show the pro scouts what they can do. Both have shown the ability to take over games, but neither has shown the ability to do it day in and day out. This next stretch of games could really make those guys a lot of money if they can seize the opportunity.
I would also assume that we won’t see much pressing in the near future. Though I can’t remember them using it at all against Memphis.
Great comments
Our real problem will be depth. Who are the guys behind the starters?
I’d suggest that Maze will be fine at the point, but there’s no one to spell him. Bone might be the guy at point, but I thought he was more of a shooting guard than a true PG. Also, JP is supposedly going to play point but his decision-making is flaky, even when he’s interested in playing someone. He also lacks the desire to play consistent defense – as you said, consistency is the key. Imagine JP the Matador against John Wall.
Hopson would be fine, if he’d toughen up and continue to play hard when someone plays him physically. He disappears when he is pushed around. Without Tyler, he’s going to be pushed around a lot. Skyler is a good wide-open, spot-up shooter but he’s a huge liability on defense and cannot create his shot. Love his hustle though.
I agree completely with your thoughts on Swiper. I did see him actually hit a 3 pointer against Memphis, which was stunning after the bricks and airballs I’d seen earlier. If I saw him make a couple of steals and box out for rebounds, I might pass out. Hall could be the answer but he’s got a freshman body amongst the SEC senior studs. More time in the weight room is likely the only answer for him.
Pearl is fine – just do not let him think he can shoot the ball or create a shot. He does many of the little things and plays hard. He makes a lot out of his limited ability.
Chism can dominate entire games, but – as you said – he disappears inexplicably in the next because he lacks consistency.
All that sounds really negative but we are way ahead of where we were when Buzz was here. The recruiting class is full of studs. Our team would have made the NCAA and likely made it to the Sweet 16 but no further – before the problems. I do think 19-11 down 4 players would be a monumental achievement and leave us “solidly” on the tournament bubble.
What if depth was hurting us?
Here’s a crazy thought: what if our depth was hurting us in a way? We have so many scoring options, that no one ever feels they have to carry the team. Maybe it’s better if Hopson and Chism feel like they need to carry the team.
JaJuan was a very streaky player when he was here, but maybe him knowing that he and Lofton were carrying the team scoring-wise was what helped him never lose intensity.
This is my hope
The only way anything good can come out of this is if Hopson/Chism/Prince realize that they have to carry the team from now on. Because I have full confidence that those three can carry the team if they play consistently and to their ability.
by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 4, 2010 8:06 PM EST up reply actions
Perhaps the lack of depth did but we are truly hurting now.
6 schollies and 3 walkons.
Chism did well for one game. JP’s decisions weren’t the best but Charlotte wasn’t as good as advertised. Scotty was streaky until Bruce got in his face. I loved Kenny Hall’s emotion. Imagine a post player with a nasty streak who likes to dunk on someone. Yes!!!
Kansas has the potential to be really, really ugly. Let’s hope they pull a Cornell.
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