SEC Power Poll Draft: Insanity Reigns

by David Hooper on Oct 10, 2010 12:54 PM EDT in College Football

This week, we're doing the Power Poll draft before the BlogPoll draft because the SBN BlogPoll ballot entering-thingy isn't up as early as it used to be in the past. Rather than re-edit the post for the shiny ballot widget, I just prefer to do it once. Here's the draft, which is a straight rundown of the computer rankings:

SEC	Team	WL	SOS	PED	RD	3DO	TD	PEO	OPPG	TO	3DD	SCORE
1	LSU	1.678	0.987	0.799	1.579	0.363	1.873	-1.089	1.212	-0.690	0.609	112.612
2	Alabama	0.995	0.748	1.217	1.086	0.792	1.070	1.648	1.443	0.864	1.254	104.284
3	Auburn	1.678	-0.178	-0.158	1.240	1.018	0.432	2.187	0.439	1.404	0.478	101.604
4	Arkansas	0.858	0.001	1.006	0.361	-0.408	0.958	1.541	1.233	1.115	0.779	67.889
5	South Carolina	0.858	0.832	-0.840	0.921	1.904	-0.058	1.292	0.756	-0.147	-0.341	67.831
6	Florida	0.312	0.520	1.016	0.740	0.325	0.888	-0.519	0.584	-0.871	0.478	43.344
7	Mississippi St.	0.312	0.030	0.111	0.845	1.303	0.540	0.275	0.919	0.459	0.163	43.177
8	Mississippi	0.038	-0.628	-0.758	0.790	-0.261	-0.012	1.075	-0.976	0.553	0.712	-4.041
9	Kentucky	-0.372	0.008	0.579	-0.897	0.301	0.291	0.804	-0.671	0.704	0.136	-6.947
10	Georgia	-1.055	1.102	-1.148	0.894	0.061	0.751	0.917	0.564	-0.209	-0.653	-16.864
11	Vanderbilt	-0.781	0.243	0.546	-0.749	-1.827	0.263	-0.217	0.354	-0.492	0.954	-41.179
12	Tennessee	-1.055	0.874	0.387	-0.065	-1.704	-0.317	-0.324	-0.336	-0.897	0.107	-47.025

As always, my thoughts follow after the jump. Also as always, we'll finalize revisions tomorrow night since the final version is due Tuesday night.

LSU

Ok, let's back the train up a bit and look at this one. LSU is ahead of Auburn because of SOS and defensive metrics. But Auburn is far and away the better team on offense. Still, numbers are numbers.

But I want to look at LSU's defensive numbers first. They are tops in the league in both run defense and total defense (Woo Chavis!), but the last two SEC teams they've faced are Tennessee and Florida, who are effectively tied as the worst to offensive teams in the league. (And with Demps out, Florida's run offense has suffered.) North Carolina is also a bad offensive team this year, and West Virginia is only slightly above average. That leaves Vanderbilt, who is 4th worst in conference in offense (behind Tennessee, Florida, and LSU in order). In short, while LSU's defense looks good, it hasn't played a strong offensive squad yet either, so it's hard to tell exactly how reliable the numbers are right now.

What I'm saying is this: I think there's reason to bump Auburn above LSU, if you think such an action is in order. I'll leave things alone until I have feedback on that, but I can see a strong argument for it.

Arkansas/South Carolina

They're tied. Which order do you prefer? Also, we now have that pesky Arkansas / South Carolina / Alabama beatpath. I don't care much which game was most recent, though I can note that Alabama was on the road in both contests. Still, what's the thought here? [EDIT 1:22 PM EST: The beatpath argument is invalid. SoCar lost to Auburn, not Arkansas. The SoCar/Arky game hasn't happened yet. That'll teach me to comment without validating.]

Florida / Mississippi State

Also tied.

Mississippi / Kentucky

Also tied.

Vanderbilt / Tennessee

Also tied [sniffle]. Yet Vandy has won a conference game while Tennessee has not yet had a bye (and therefore has that win percentage thing working against them).

For funsies and self-loathing

If Tennessee had beaten LSU (basically, just change the records and see the W/L difference), LSU would be a solid third in the list (87.3) and Tennessee would be a solid ... 11th at -21.7.

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Comments

One man's opinion:

Auburn and LSU have to be 1-2 as the lone undefeateds – I’m biased against LSU because of last week, but I think Auburn gets the nod at #1. South Carolina has to go at #3 because they were clearly better than Alabama straight up. I think you go Auburn, LSU, Carolina, Alabama top four.

Then, if the computer thinks Arkansas is that much better than Florida, I’m fine with them at #5. Florida over Mississippi State (this’ll resolve itself on Saturday), then Ole Miss over UK (head-to-head). I think Georgia is becoming the hardest team to place.

Are we the worst team in the SEC? Are our close losses worth more than Vandy’s win over Ole Miss?

Rocky Top Talk

by Will Shelton on Oct 10, 2010 1:09 PM EDT reply actions

I can go with that.

By the way, I was totally wrong on that beatpath argument, as SoCar and Arky have not yet played. It was Auburn that beat South Carolina, so the argument for Carolina above Alabama is totally reasonable.

by David Hooper on Oct 10, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Agree with all of this

Except I’d put LSU over Auburn. First of all, I expect LSU to win that game head-to-head, as I think they’re a bad matchup for Auburn. Second of all, LSU has won two games at neutral/away sites and has a pretty impressive road pelt. Auburn has Kentucky.

by Incipient_Senescence on Oct 10, 2010 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

and South Carolina

Rocky Top Talk

by Will Shelton on Oct 10, 2010 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions

oh, you mean on the road

you mean you weren’t impressed with that Thursday night display in Starkville?

Rocky Top Talk

by Will Shelton on Oct 10, 2010 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions

I can't comprehend that. At all.

Not saying you’re wrong. I just can’t comprehend a reality where LSU is the best team in the SEC.

Simulated Gameday Experience - just like the real thing, only we have smoke machines.

by Chris Pendley on Oct 10, 2010 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Just because it might be the case doesn't make it fall under peras

Case in point: anything involving Les Miles.

by Incipient_Senescence on Oct 10, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't think LSU is a bad matchup for Auburn

We (Auburn) have weakness in the secondary and a great rush defense. LSU is definitely a running football team. Our offense will be the best LSU has faced, and the game is in Jordan-Hare. The only thing worrying me about that game is the fact that there is some force in the universe that prevents Les Miles from losing football games.

We play Arkansas next week. That will be a team which is a bad matchup. I hope we sell out the blitz and hit Mallett early and often. If we let him sit back in the pocket he’ll pick our weak secondary apart.

All of that said, I’d probably put LSU ahead of Auburn, because winning in the Swamp is still probably more impressive than anything Auburn’s done this season (although the SC win looks great right now).

Do you remember that spelling bee you won in the first grade? Rock? "R-O-K"?

by jd is legend on Oct 10, 2010 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions

My biggest fear of LSU: their passing offense.

They’re worst in the SEC in passing by a full half-standard deviation over Florida. They’re totally one-dimensional on offense. While I like LSU’s defense a lot more than Auburn’s, at least Auburn can run and pass.

I’d like a resolution on this point before deciding the top two. But yes, the Tigers should be there.

Oh, and I could always vote them as a tie for number 1. (Seriously.) ;-)

by David Hooper on Oct 10, 2010 1:48 PM EDT reply actions