BlogPoll Ballot Week 12:

by David Hooper on Nov 21, 2010 3:00 PM EST in College Football

Here's the draft in Excel 07 form. We have a new #1 in the computers, and Auburn still struggles to get binary respect.

The Top

This is getting repetitive. As far as the top 5-10 teams go, Auburn has bad defensive metrics. Defense is weighted 2:1 over offense in the computer. This hurts Auburn. They'll get their weekly bump to atone for it, but this is a systemic flaw that will be addressed in the offseason. Also, I may flip TCU and Oregon, and I want to put Stanford above Ohio State.

(Side note: I bet that a lot of manual overrides will center around the offense / defense balance.)

The Big Ten and Big 12

Take a look over these and see what you think. There's a lot of clustering in these conferences, so the opportunity for manual overrides is pretty rich. Rivalry weekend will help a lot, but we're not there yet.

Nevada

10-1 but the weakest SoS in the top 20. They're a toughie; they drilled California, who then played Oregon tight, but that whole variance of performance thing gets in the way.

Big East / ACC

I want to move WVU down, especially below VTech. Some backup thoughts would be nice.

Head to Head

I'll let Will fill us in on that stuff. He's already figured it out, I'm sure.

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Comments

Aside from fully supporting Oregon over TCU and Stanford over the Buckeyes:

LSU still has to be above Alabama. Also, with Virginia Tech, they’re not going to get any real bump with UVA this week and potentially not against NC State or FSU either. I’d put them above WVA on relative conference strength alone, but you can make an argument for every other team that’s in front of them except Nevada, and we’ll figure out all we need to know about them on Saturday.

Rocky Top Talk

by Will Shelton on Nov 21, 2010 3:20 PM EST reply actions

Sorry I jumped the gun on SDSU last night. Such a great start too

*Definitely Stanford over Ohio State. I’d move Wisconsin over Ohio State as well. Head to head win, and their (very early) loss is becoming more and more distant as they play better and better.

*Nevada is probably a bit overranked, but they’ll get spiked after this weekend.

*Five Big XII teams in the ballot, and they’ve all lost to each other. TAMU has 3 losses, OSU has 1. The rest have 2. Here are their records against their top 25 brethren, which I think is probably the best way to sort them:
Nebraska 2-1 (wins: Mizzou and Okie St; loss: Texas A&M)
Missouri: 2-1 (wins: Texas A&M and OU; loss: Nebraska)
Texas A&M 2-2 (wins: Nebraska and OU; losses: Okie St. and Mizzou)
Okie State 1-1 (win: Texas A&M; loss: Nebraska)
Oklahoma 0-2 (losses: Mizzou, Texas A&M). OU has a non-conference win over Florida St.
It looks like Oklahoma clearly has the worst resume of the bunch. The other four can be sorted in a number of ways, but I’d put Oklahoma State 4th because their win over Texas A&M was before the Aggies changed QBs; OSU relied on 4 INTs to win by 3 at home. Texas A&M, out of interest, is undefeated since the QB change.

*Are UConn and ‘Cuse as bad as James Madison? Probably. Do either WVU or VT have any impressive wins? Not really. But VT’s weekly level of competition is higher. Which really says something about the Big East.

*Leave NIU in this time. ;-)

by Incipient_Senescence on Nov 21, 2010 3:21 PM EST reply actions