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College Football BlogPoll Week 10 Draft

At  first blush, I don't think our computers will require too much in the way of overrides, but there are a few out there.  The Excel '07 sheet is here, and the list follows.

  1. TCU Horned Frogs
  2. Boise St. Broncos
  3. Oregon Ducks
  4. Ohio St. Buckeyes
  5. Auburn Tigers
  6. Stanford Cardinal
  7. Iowa Hawkeyes
  8. Alabama Crimson Tide
  9. Nebraska Cornhuskers
  10. Nevada Wolf Pack
  11. Utah Utes
  12. LSU Tigers
  13. Arizona Wildcats
  14. Wisconsin Badgers
  15. Michigan St. Spartans
  16. Oklahoma St. Cowboys
  17. Central Florida Knights
  18. Arkansas Razorbacks
  19. Oklahoma Sooners
  20. Mississippi St. Bulldogs
  21. Texas A&M Aggies
  22. Florida St. Seminoles
  23. Virginia Tech Hokies
  24. Miami Hurricanes
  25. Florida Gators

Top_25_scores_week_10_medium

Star-divide

The Top

At this point, I feel there are three teams with legit claim to the top two slots: TCU, Boise, and Oregon.  I don't mind much of any order of the three, so let me know if you'd prefer them to be switched a bit.  I do think Auburn is the #4 in line because their defensive metrics don't hold up (this is why Ohio State actually jumps them in our computer).  I'll manually bump Auburn over Ohio St. in deference to the unbeaten record, but I'd need a good argument to move them up further.  (And no, 'SEC Pride' is not a good argument.)

Upper Middle

After the first four, you can get really creative in the order.  There are a few obvious moves, like putting LSU ahead of Alabama (looking at you, Will).  Some are more difficult, like what to do with Nevada and Utah.  I'm inclined to leave Nevada ahead; their SoS is slightly worse than Utah's, but they also didn't get absolutely embarrassed on their own field and their one loss was @ Hawaii, with the '@' being a rather important qualifier in this case.  Outside of that, talk to me.

Central Florida

Good record, weak SoS, good defense.  Probably should be ranked, but where?

The Bottom

Miami and Florida?  What about San Diego St., Missouri, and might Northern Illinois?

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Oregon ahead of Boise due to SoS. SDSU should be ahead of Florida imo. They’ve lost two games by a combined six points to pretty quality opponents.

Florida Sucks!

by Orange Swarm on Nov 7, 2010 2:53 PM EST reply actions  

And SDSU lost both of those games in large part to officiating errors.

In the Mizzou loss, the Tigers scored on the play that the refs later admitted to failing to call a block in the back. (It was obvious, too.) In the BYU loss, the MWC conference ended up with emergency rules changes on who is allowed to be in the replay booth because an obvious fumble was not awarded to SDSU, thanks to the BYU employees who failed to give the head replay official the correct view. (It didn’t guarantee the win for BYU, but it certainly helped.)

So even though they’re losses, I’m very sympathetic to SDSU as they could very well be undefeated right now. I like bumping SDSU, but I do appreciate having other people feel the same way.

by David Hooper on Nov 7, 2010 3:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Honestly

I think each of the top four become more impressive this week. TCU dominated a top ten team on the road, Boise dominated a top 25ish team at home, and Auburn’s signature win suddenly became impressive, as LSU now has a signature win of its own. Oh, and Oregon? They just keep doing their thing. I’ve wanted Auburn #4 for a while, but I think any order will suit me now. Still think Aubie is most likely to go down.

Some other thoughts:

*Love seeing the Cardinal at 6, might even be inclined to bump them to 5. They’re one impressive bunch this year. May well be the best one loss team out there. They certainly have the highest quality of loss (@Oregon).

*We still have a Big Ten beatpath, and I think last week’s order (Wisconsin, OSU, MSU, Iowa) still has a strong case. Arizona, being 7-2, can still slide in one spot ahead of Iowa (as Will will point out).

*LSU over Alabama. Possibly Nebraska over Bama as well, although last week was uninspiring.

*Oklahoma State looks good. Elsewhere in the Big XII, TAMU has validated itself, and the Sooners have done the opposite. Why are they still in the poll? What’s their big win? Florida State? Air Force? Are those enough to keep them around? Because Texas sure ain’t.

*Speaking of FSU, didn’t we plan to spike all ACC teams after this week? VT looked awful. FSU looked awful (and lost). Why does the computer still like them again? NC State, (who also lost), still has a head to head and identical record to FSU. On the subject of teams looking awful, Miami looked awful and FSU has the identical record plus head to head. So NCSU > FSU > Miami. And VT is better than them all. And VT sucks.

*For all the expectation-relative fail that is the Gators, they still haven’t lost to a team outside the top 25. Maybe they can stay.

*UCF continues to be 0-2 against medicore teams from BCS conferences. But they have beaten everybody else. Whatever else we say, their resume is below SDSU, who has the same record against a much better schedule.

*So I’ve advocated booting four teams (three ACC + OU). Now we must determine whether there are four teams worth moving up to take their places. Baylor, Illinois, and NCSU all choked away chances to make statements on the road. Grand. SDSU is worth a bump. There’s one. Missouri looked awful, but they still have wins over OU (who will be spiked, we hope) and TAMU, who is in the poll. So maybe there’s two. Pitt (losses @Utah, vs. Miami, @ ND) and WVU (consecutive losses vs. ‘Cuse and UConn) are recommended by the computer and rejected. Penn State is 6-3 but has done nothing of note. Nope. UNC is 6-3 and has beaten FSU, but they got crushed by Miami to form an ACC beatpath. Nope. NIU is 0-2 against mediocre BCS teams (and 1-0 against awful ones), so maybe they can come hang with UCF. One spot left? Air Force? Lost to Oklahoma, so they can’t come in to replace OU. Who’s left? South Carolina. Bad loss to Arkansas, but they are 6-3, and they do have a signature win. It’s them, VT, or OU for #25. I say USC, but it’s your call.

by Incipient_Senescence on Nov 7, 2010 3:03 PM EST reply actions  

The reputation of The Head to Head Police Department precedes me

Also, is TCU so good that they’re literally off the grid?

Aside from what you guys have already made clear, I think TAMU has to go above OU if you’re leaving OU in the poll. If Florida State comes out, Miami absolutely has to as well…I do still think Virginia Tech is one of the 25 best teams in college football though, they should stay.

by Will Shelton on Nov 7, 2010 3:13 PM EST reply actions  

I did say the FSU/Miami thing

But there’s actually a full beatpath of 6-3 teams in the ACC, so it’s perhaps less clear than that. UNC beat FSU, who throttled Miami, who destroyed UNC. Still, I don’t think any of them are poll worthy. VT is the only ACC team with a shot, and after seeing them live, I’m not totally convinced that they’re better than South Carolina.

by Incipient_Senescence on Nov 7, 2010 3:19 PM EST up reply actions  

SC and VT are both inconsistent..

…but I’d say the ceiling looks a lot higher for SC, when they’re on.

by _trey_ on Nov 7, 2010 3:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Oops, yes.

TCU is at 178. And to think that I had already expanded the range to accommodate them last week.

by David Hooper on Nov 7, 2010 3:29 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd say

+Oregon, TCU, Boise, Auburn, Stanford, all pretty purely on SoS
+Ohio St. is about 5 slots too high, Wisconsin about 5 too low
+LSU over Bama
+Agree with spiking the ACC- Incipient said it well enough.

by _trey_ on Nov 7, 2010 3:15 PM EST reply actions  

I'd have Oregon at #1, but I'm slightly biased.

"(Kelly's) got a veteran team that is the favorite to win the Pac-10. His choice of Thomas reflects only one belief: He’s our best QB today."-Ted Miller

by TennesseeQuackAttack8 on Nov 7, 2010 9:44 PM EST reply actions  

Heh.

No problem with that sentiment at all. I’m likely to leave TCU there, but the Oregon argument is obvious.

by David Hooper on Nov 7, 2010 11:32 PM EST up reply actions  

my $.02

A couple quick points:
- Have yall seen Iowa play? They suck. I would recommend bumping them down at least 5 spots
-Ok St. is better than represented
- I wanted to show some love for Northern Illinois. They are quite the juggernaut in the MAC. I would have no problem with them in the top 25, especially if it was between them and, say, a Big East team.
-I agree with the arguments that there should be only one ACC team in the top 25. That being Va Tech.
-Central Florida is good. I would keep them in for sure.

1-3: do as you see fit. all three teams are forces of nature.
4. aub
-— in the below cluster, this order looked best to me --
5. Stanford
6. Nebraska
7. tOSU
-——- arguments start to get hairyer (is that how you spell that?) -
8. Ok. St. (this is really good team. they can score).
9. LSU (can’t put ‘em any lower)
10. Bama (H2H police made me)
11. Utah
12. Zona
13. Wiscy
14. Arky
15. TAMU
16. Florida (they’re starting to look better)
17. Nevada
18. Iowa (only because of social pressure. they are trash)
19. SDSU
20. Mich St. (The Big 10 is just so blah this year)
21. UCF
22. Va Tech
23. Miss St.
24. Mizzou
25. Northern Illinois (why not?)

...just apologize for not thanking me.

by kidbourbon on Nov 8, 2010 1:26 AM EST reply actions  

Crap, I forgot south carolina

I gotta amend my above version.
Put SC in Va. Tech’s spot, move Va. Tech to Mizzou’s spot, and then move Mizzou to the local trash dispenser. Northern Illinois shall stay.

That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

Note: these are not orders I’m giving to you as far as how you do your final poll, but rather orders to a hypothetical person amending my above post with instructions from this post.

...just apologize for not thanking me.

by kidbourbon on Nov 8, 2010 1:34 AM EST up reply actions  

Thinking outside box

For fun, my own personal “power ranking” that ignores resume and asks who would be favored by Vegas if they played today. There might actually be a “vegas poll” out there that asks this same question but answers it more definitively than me. I feel like I’’ve seen something like that before. Whatever, here is how I think something like that would look. It gets a lot SEC heavier when you do it this way. Think about it. How many SEC teams would be giving points to, say, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan St., Mizzou, ’Zona. etc.? If Georgia played Michigan State, for instance, they would definitely be favored.

1. Oregon
2. Boise
3. TCU
4. Alabama
5. Auburn
6. Nebraska
7. tOSU
8. Stanford
9. Oklahoma State
10. LSU
11. South Carolina
12. Arkansas
13. Utah
14. Florida
15. Arizona
16. Va Tech
17. Georgia
18. Oklahoma
19. Nevada
20. Iowa
21. Wisconsin
22. TAMU (I might could move them up)
23. Miss St.
24. Hawaii
25. Mich St.

That was at least a good mental exercise for myself. It arguably didn’t benefit society a whole lot. Oh well.

...just apologize for not thanking me.

by kidbourbon on Nov 8, 2010 1:52 AM EST reply actions  

Oh hey

What do I notice about the six teams we lost to? They’re all in the top 17. What a lovely schedule.

by Incipient_Senescence on Nov 8, 2010 4:39 PM EST reply actions  

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