FanShot

Giant Killing in the Midwest

4

More piling-on by ESPN: BEST BET No. 6 Tennessee (23.1 vulnerability rating) vs. No. 11 San Diego State (67.0 Giant Killer rating) UPSET CHANCE: 15.5 percent The Vols don't score from outside (just 17.6 points from 3-pointers per game, on 31.3 percent shooting, 282nd in the NCAA). And they don't hit the offensive glass (32.2 percent offensive rebounding percentage, 195th in the country). Of course, with their defense (eighth-most efficient in the nation), they often don't need to do any better in those categories. But in a Giant-Killing scenario, those weaknesses are harbingers of doom. Meanwhile, the Aztecs aren't your everyday pesky Killer -- they're tall, just average at generating turnovers and weak from long distance. But San Diego State is dominant on the boards, grabbing offensive rebounds on 40 percent of missed shots (ninth in the country, and best among potential Killers). Combined with outstanding shooting inside the arc, that makes them efficient on offense. (San Diego State is terrible from the free throw line, but, contrary to popular opinion, that's OK; Killers need to seek points elsewhere to be successful.) The Aztecs' propensity for blocking shots (22nd in the country) helps limit opponents to just 43.4 percent shooting on 2-point FGs, making them efficient on defense, too. And they played one of the strongest schedules among Killers. A year after getting snubbed by the NCAA, San Diego State could be real trouble this time around. (the chance of upset at 15.5% is only 0.3% better than Houston's shot at upsetting Maryland, and is about the same chance they give Sam Houston State of upsetting Baylor. Of course, don't expect anyone on ESPN to consider that upset a foregone conclusion like they consider ours.)

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