No. 6 Tennessee (23.1) vs. No. 14 Ohio (31.3)
UPSET CHANCE: 7.2 percent
The Bobcats shot an incredible 58 percent against Georgetown in the first round; that will be tough to repeat against the Vols' efficient defense, which ranks eighth in the NCAA. And our model doesn't see Ohio as particularly able to maximize possessions: The Bobcats are adept at minimizing turnovers, but Tennessee is even better at generating them, and while Tennessee is weak on the offensive boards, Ohio is even weaker on the defensive boards. The Vols probably won't be able to shoot well from the outside (31.8 percent 3-point FG shooting, 267th in the country, versus Ohio's 29th-ranked defense). But that probably won't matter unless the Bobcats can grab some steals and turnovers and keep the Vols' big men cold for long stretches.
Tennessee is #3 on their list of potential upsets behind Butler and Baylor. They can't effectively evaluate the Villanova game, but that might actually rank ahead of Tennessee for likely upsets.