FanPost

Statistical Odds to Win it All

Pomeroy has used his Log5 formula on this Pythag numbers to determine the odds that each team has at winning it all. His ranking isn't too kind to us in the first place, ranking us better than only St. Mary's and Cornell of the teams left in the tournament. Accordingly, he gives us a 1.2 percent chance of winning it all. He explains that Ohio State's chances at winning it all look pretty good because they merely have to navigate Tennessee and UNI/MSU in the Midwest. FWIW, before Wisconsin lost yesterday, they had been his #3 ranked team for several weeks (which I think was wacko). Jeff Sagarin has constructed a similar chart using a computer model that simluates the Sweet 16 100,000,000 times. He gives Tennesse about 30-to-1 odds at winning it all. Which is about the same as Xavier, and lands us as the 10th most likely team. Clearly they believe we are a big underdog to beat Ohio State. But at this point of the year, I think a lot of those statistical models can be thrown out the window, and what's more important is how well a team is playing right now, and, more importantly, how a team matches up with their opponent. Vegas has opened us up as a 4.5 point underdog to OSU. Both Accuscore and Pomeroy are giving us about a 28% chance to beat Ohio State. That seems low to me. Hopefully Tennessee will prove them wrong.(I think these things are pretty much pointless, but they are interesting to look it)

FanPosts are most often submitted by users. The views and opinions expressed in FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions held by the editorial staff of Rocky Top Talk or SB Nation.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Rocky Top Talk

You must be a member of Rocky Top Talk to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Rocky Top Talk. You should read them.

Join Rocky Top Talk

You must be a member of Rocky Top Talk to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Rocky Top Talk. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker