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College Football BlogPoll: Let's Get Started

In a short (but not short enough) while, we'll be back in the full swing of football season.  With football returns the BlogPoll which, to my understanding, will remain at its home on CBS for another year.

I had hoped to spend the summer working on some new algorithms for ranking teams, but have been far too busy to even think about it.  So we'll continue with the guidance from our tried-and-semitrue computer ranking system from previous years.  It's transparent, easy to decipher, and I can always hand over the spreadsheet to anybody who wants to mess around with the number.  Best of all, I can easily see why it ranks the teams the way it does, which makes it easier to override the rankings when necessary.

My biggest difficulties with the poll, however, always come early in the season.  For one, the data is too sparse for reliable ranking (hello, Arizona State of last year).  For two, I give preseason polls almost zero credence.  (WARNING!!  TANGENT AHEAD!)  I don't like the idea of preseason rankings and, to be honest, I wouldn't even have any rankings prior to about week 6 if I had my way.  People get far too caught up in defending prior rankings rather than letting bodies of work speak for themselves.  (My favorite idea is to not allow a team to be ranked until it is bowl-eligible with 6 wins.  That idea has its own issues, but now I'm on a tangent within a tangent.)

Anyhow, the point is this:  I don't agree with the idea of preseason rankings, but that's a dissension of opinion, certainly not of any moral or ethical stance.  So I have no problem contributing to a preseason ranking*, and I always hope to do my best with it.

That's where I need help:

Star-divide

For the preseason and first week, I'll need significant feedback for Rocky Top Talk's ballot.  I'm looking for reasonable and I'm not worried about accurate.  So to simplify the problem, let's attack the rankings this way:

Which teams would you expect to beat most/all of any of the other teams on opening day?

Let's say that you think that San Jose State would beat every other team on opening weekend.  That'd be your number one team.  Then if you think that Hawaii would beat everybody except SJSU, they'd be #2.  Etc.  (I use the absurd to avoid making suggestions.)   So here's how the preseason ballot will go.

Discussion  In this thread, give me some input as to which teams should be considered for the top 25.  I'm not worried about getting it figured out quite yet - just a start.

Slots 1 through 10  After a bit, we'll have a discussion thread to hammer down the top 10.  If that's too many, we'll start with a top 5.  Either way, we'll break down the poll a bit.  This will also give us a chance to talk about the upcoming season some more.

Slots 11 through you get the idea  Lather, rinse, repeat.

Let's face it; preseason polls are a deficiency of mine.  That's why I need some learnin' here.  This should also help speed the time until we're talking about actual football rather than right-brained fantasy land football.

 

* For the record, the BlogPoll doesn't require any contributions prior to week 3.  This satisfies those who insist on resume ranking (like me) to the point that they can't relax and move away from the resumes (not like me).  And since I consider RTT's ballot to be inclusive of the opinions of our clan, I feel we ought to participate in the early ballots despite me.

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I'll take a stab

An extremely faint-hearted attempt at a top 25
1. Bama
2. Ohio State
3. UF
4. Stoops
5. Texas
6. USC
7. Boise
8. Oregon
9. Miami
10. Auburn
11. Va. Tech
12. UGA
13. FSU
14. Nebraska
15. TCU
16. Pitt
17. TAMU
18. LSU
19. Washington
20. Clemson
21. Spurrier
22. Georgia Tech
23. UNC (The ACC is impossible to predict this year…I"m just kinda tossing these in there)
24. Arky
25. Wiscy

others that merit consideration:
Penn State
WVU
Mizzou
Oregon State
Utah
Iowa
Tennessee (I actually think we’re going to be better than predicted. I don’t think top 25 is totally unreasonable).
Arizona

...just apologize for not thanking me.

by kidbourbon on Aug 3, 2010 10:55 AM EDT reply actions  

[Edit]

I should have included Uconn in the “other that merit consideration”. And possible Notre Dame. And if you’re gonna put a gun to my head for two more mid-majors, I’ll go Houston and BYU.

Some teams I’m not buying this year:
-Ole Miss
-BC
-Mich. State
-Stanford
-Texas Tech
-Cal
-Cincy

Wildcard team
-I have no idea what this team is going to do. None whatsoever. Very little would surprise me. This team is Michigan.

And because my typing fingers are getting nice and lubricated now, here is my vote for the worst 15 BCS teams:
Maryland
Wake
NC State
Kentucky
Arizona State (full disclosure: I don’t know much about this team…I just heard they suck).
Fighting Zookers
Vandy
UVA
Washington St.
Louisville
Indiana
Syracuse

...just apologize for not thanking me.

by kidbourbon on Aug 3, 2010 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

I only put down 12 teams...oops

Add these to the dregs
-Minnesota
-K St.
-Okla St. (controversial perhaps, but this team is going to suck mightily).

...just apologize for not thanking me.

by kidbourbon on Aug 3, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Maryland's still going to figure out a way to go 6-6.

They’ll be outgained by 250 yards per game and end up -15 in turnovers, but they’re gonna go 6-6.

I hate that team so much.

Simulated Gameday Experience - just like the real thing, only we have smoke machines.

by Chris Pendley on Aug 3, 2010 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Love your patriotism on the Vols and hope you are right but Top 25? Really?

That’d mean 8-4. I just don’t see it.

The COEXIST bumper sticker is ridiculous. How are people supposed to get along when one side is flying planes into tall buildings or wearing sweater vests full of C4 and nails? The faiths are MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE.

by memphispete on Aug 4, 2010 8:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

It's tough to see

It’s like one of those pictures that you have to stare at for a couple minutes with unfocused eyes before the main object finally jumps out at you. What are those pictures called?

Anyway, I’m not saying the Vols will be ranked top 25 at season’s end. Frankly, I didn’t even give that any consideration.

There is one and only one sensible way to rank teams — one and only one guiding principle. “The Neutral Field Test”. Team A plays Team B tomorrow on a neutral field. I think Team A will win. Team A therefore gets a higher ranking. That is the only question I ask.

Using that test, I have Tennessee just outside the top 25.

...just apologize for not thanking me.

by kidbourbon on Aug 4, 2010 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Teams I think should be considered:

ACC: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia Tech
Big East: Cincinnati, UConn, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Big Ten: Iowa, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech
Pac 10: Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, USC (if they’re included)
SEC: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU
Other: Boise State, Houston, TCU, Utah

That’s 32 right there – my own personal dark horses include Texas A&M, Washington, and Navy. As such, there are a number of other teams you can make an argument for in the last five in.

by Will Shelton on Aug 3, 2010 11:16 AM EDT reply actions  

My first thought is to figure out the top 2 in each conference.

SEC: Bama/Florida
Big 10: OSU/ ? (Penn St.?)
Big 12: Texas/Nebraska
PAC 10: Oregon/ ?? (USC if included? Stanford if not?)
ACC: VTech/?
Big East: Pitt/WVU

MWC: TCU/Utah
WAC: Boise/Nevada
Indie: Navy (What about Notre Dame?)

Many holes. So many holes.

by David Hooper on Aug 3, 2010 12:06 PM EDT reply actions  

Iowa

They bring back a lot from a team that was second in the Big 10 last year and throttled Tech in the Orange Bowl. I thought it was smoke and mirrors last year, but the bowl and the returning starters make them a preseason top 10 pick.

by Incipient_Senescence on Aug 3, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

I disagree on Iowa

Even if they’re better than last year, they’re still just better than a team that nearly lost to Northern Iowa and Arkansas State. And won 4-5 other games by less than a handful of points. This team had a good record last year. But they were not a good team.

The Tech win was nice for them, but is actually rather inconsistent with their entire body of work over the course of the season.

Where do I have Iowa ranked? Oh, I don’t have them ranked. Well, I wouldn’t argue with them being ranked in the top 25. But I think putting them in the top ten would be imprudent at best.

Now this doesn’t mean that a lot of publications haven’t ranked this team that high. I myself try not to be influenced by preseason general consensus (see: Ole Miss ’09).

...just apologize for not thanking me.

by kidbourbon on Aug 3, 2010 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

I thought this all of last season

But they just kept winning. And then ended as a top 10-12 team, and have gotten better this year. Maybe they’ll crash and burn, but if this year’s team has the character of last year’s, they deserve preseason top 10.

by Incipient_Senescence on Aug 4, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Couple thoughts

For the ACC:
I would scrap the idea of figuring out a clear top 2 in the ACC. The teams are essentially indiscernible. Not much easier for the Big 10.

On your Big 12 ranking:
Nebraska was totally reliant on their defense last year and lost the most dominant defensive player in the country. Oklahoma and Nebraska don’t play unless they play in the championship game. If they do, I have a hunch Oklahoma will win this game. They can score.

Pac-10:
I think Stanford will see a drop-off now that Gerhart is gone.

...just apologize for not thanking me.

by kidbourbon on Aug 3, 2010 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Totally spaced out on Oklahoma.

And good point on Stanford.

As far as the ACC, maybe I’ll just pencil the whole league in for 7-5.

by David Hooper on Aug 3, 2010 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Haha

Sounds about right on the ACC.

None of those teams is running the table.

...just apologize for not thanking me.

by kidbourbon on Aug 4, 2010 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Top 8, in no order

Alabama
Florida
Ohio State
Iowa
Texas
Oklahoma
Boise State
TCU

I don’t know who fills out the top 10. VT and Oregon? Penn State? Miami?

by Incipient_Senescence on Aug 3, 2010 1:49 PM EDT reply actions  

No Oregon? Must be counting on the Vols the game you are going to see...

(Yes this is a cheap allusion to the ticket e-mail…)

The COEXIST bumper sticker is ridiculous. How are people supposed to get along when one side is flying planes into tall buildings or wearing sweater vests full of C4 and nails? The faiths are MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE.

by memphispete on Aug 4, 2010 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

That should read Must be counting on the Vols TO WIN the game you are going to see

The COEXIST bumper sticker is ridiculous. How are people supposed to get along when one side is flying planes into tall buildings or wearing sweater vests full of C4 and nails? The faiths are MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE.

by memphispete on Aug 4, 2010 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

I had them in the top 10, not just 8

And I haven’t forgotten about you. I’ll send an email when the check is in the mail.

by Incipient_Senescence on Aug 4, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

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