College Football BlogPoll Week 3 Draft: Clutch-Grinding Time!

After three weeks, we are finally at the point where each team has played at least two games.  That's significant to me because it seems that the second game really stabilizes our computer rankings; like any resume system, they're still wildly variant, but at least the results make a little bit of sense.  From here forward, our BlogPoll ballot will being with the computer rankings.  We'll then investigate the results and see where any adjustments need to be made.

I always love starting with the computer for two reasons.  One is that it's quite impossible to fairly judge this many teams by eyesight alone, and having numbers helps put things in a bit of perspective.  The other is that numbers help reveal human bias, such as the kind of bias that causes the coaches poll to leave Nevada out of the top 25.  (How can coaches evaluate 120 teams when they spend all day focusing on their own game?  Heck, even we couch-potatoes can't even manage that!)

The computer methodology is the same as what we used last year, so this post will suffice as explanation.  The weights are different (and are open to revision), so I'll include the weights in the post below the rankings.  For now, here is the computer's top 25 exactly as the computer spits them out.  This is a draft, remember, and we will tweak things until Wednesday morning when I turn in our actual ballot.

DISCUSSION

For readability, I'll make a few observations here first, then include the data at the end.

The Top

I am comfortable with Oregon at the top.  They're a very scary team to play and have come out of the gate at full speed.  I could bump somebody else there, but it'll take quite an argument to convince me to do so.  From what I saw of them, Stanford has also played brilliantly and should be top 10.  I don't mind them at 3, but I'm all ears.  Boise is farther down than anticipated, and if I were a little more Bayesian about this they'd be higher.  Should they stay at #8 or move up?  They've only had two games; one against a Wyoming team that fell apart during their tribute game to Ruben Narcisse's death two weeks ago, and one against a Virginia Tech team that played far worse after the Boise game than during.  I can see them anywhere from #3 to #10 and am again all ears.

The SEC

I want to move Florida down, South Carolina up, LSU and Auburn down, and Arkansas up.  Again: talk to me here.  Kentucky is a mystery; they've played very well, but they've played against weak teams.  I haven't seen a single play from their games, so I don't know what to do with them.

Others

Northwestern?  Michigan?  Air Force?  Anybody else look odd?  Oh, and Southern Cal will be removed from the final list, as is our policy this year (so that we have 25 bowl-eligible teams in the ranking).  For now, leaving them in the draft makes it easier to see what the computer thinks of them.

THE DATA

The weights in this list are: 

Weight Type Raw Normalized
WL 30 37.037
SOS 10 12.346
PED 9 11.111
RD 8 9.877
3DO 7 8.642
TD 6 7.407
PEO 5 6.173
OPPG 3 3.704
TO 2 2.469
3DD 1 1.235
Sum 81 100

 

The Normalized weights are simply the Raw weights re-weighted to sum to 100 and are the ones actually used in the computer.  This maintains the same total point allocation from week to week, regardless of weight proportions.  (Note to the statsy types: I'm interested in re-balancing the weights throughout this year.  Feedback appreciated.)

Here is the list of all 1-A teams, including all scores:

Rank Team WL SOS PED RD 3DO TD PEO OPPG TO 3DD SCORE
1 Oregon 1.218 -0.711 2.574 0.949 1.543 2.028 0.505 1.994 2.805 2.664 123.393
2 Alabama 1.218 0.274 2.058 0.456 0.567 1.255 2.217 1.788 1.942 0.945 116.335
3 Stanford 1.218 -0.176 2.022 0.145 1.461 1.586 2.090 1.032 1.116 0.773 111.650
4 TCU 1.218 -0.168 0.368 1.053 2.041 1.650 1.156 1.135 1.269 0.800 102.855
5 Arizona 1.218 -0.220 0.692 1.083 1.272 1.680 1.269 1.238 0.898 0.301 99.239
6 Utah 1.218 -0.285 0.893 1.120 0.833 1.019 1.836 0.792 0.064 -0.063 91.676
7 Nebraska 1.218 -0.475 1.767 0.139 1.148 0.981 0.935 0.792 1.587 0.915 91.195
8 Boise St. 1.218 0.833 -0.826 1.683 0.217 1.627 0.950 0.586 1.614 1.268 90.357
9 Texas 1.218 0.317 0.499 1.857 0.090 1.856 -0.601 1.135 -0.320 1.204 88.633
10 Texas A&M 1.218 -1.218 1.396 1.400 1.085 1.225 0.221 0.964 1.438 1.360 88.042
11 Florida 1.218 0.504 1.491 0.973 0.022 0.955 -0.106 0.964 -0.820 1.020 86.942
12 South Carolina 1.218 0.246 -0.124 1.570 1.659 0.302 0.328 1.135 0.088 0.061 85.385
13 Ohio St. 1.218 -0.360 1.425 1.199 -0.717 1.474 0.655 1.135 0.935 0.444 84.174
14 LSU 1.218 0.750 0.133 1.193 0.710 0.916 -0.758 1.273 -0.770 0.664 79.511
15 Auburn 1.218 0.161 0.414 0.547 0.257 0.113 2.405 0.244 0.926 0.511 78.840
16 Arkansas 1.218 -0.891 0.349 0.626 0.351 1.225 1.832 1.273 1.220 0.818 76.335
17 Kentucky 1.218 -1.791 1.561 -0.044 0.977 1.199 1.886 0.586 1.389 1.087 75.840
18 West Virginia 1.218 -0.826 -0.594 1.515 1.278 1.225 0.678 1.135 0.753 1.569 75.596
19 Nevada 1.218 -0.547 0.376 -0.172 2.847 -0.660 1.453 0.347 2.169 -0.570 75.467
20 Northwestern 1.218 -0.277 0.957 0.407 0.009 -0.084 2.195 1.170 0.390 0.369 75.109
21 Wisconsin 1.218 -0.418 -0.007 0.614 0.977 0.637 0.953 0.586 0.670 0.617 69.566
22 Fresno St. 1.218 -0.258 0.650 0.651 -0.798 1.008 1.413 0.483 -0.591 -0.215 64.946
23 Southern California 1.218 0.585 -0.201 0.456 0.833 -0.784 1.022 0.003 0.435 -0.305 63.010
24 North Carolina St. 1.218 -0.518 -0.508 1.101 0.358 0.732 0.365 0.826 0.225 1.398 60.070
25 Missouri 1.218 -0.662 1.708 -0.476 0.009 0.371 -0.222 0.964 0.419 0.004 57.290
26 Michigan 1.218 0.268 0.105 -0.440 0.977 -1.136 1.041 0.003 1.546 0.363 55.982
27 Oklahoma St. 1.218 -0.581 -0.265 0.151 0.257 -0.303 2.221 -0.409 2.611 -0.253 54.795
28 Oklahoma 1.218 0.796 0.530 -0.714 0.434 -0.737 0.227 0.209 0.456 -0.551 54.696
29 Kansas St. 1.218 -0.592 0.920 -0.568 0.217 -0.003 0.883 0.175 0.344 0.238 51.525
30 Boston College 1.218 -1.756 0.635 1.674 -0.798 0.744 0.610 0.741 -0.337 -0.215 51.062
31 California 0.175 -0.012 1.114 0.194 1.120 1.002 1.097 0.312 0.906 -0.359 47.457
32 Iowa 0.175 -0.383 0.449 1.406 0.697 1.092 1.278 0.792 0.270 0.520 46.886
33 Michigan St. 1.218 -0.571 0.037 1.308 -1.304 -0.140 0.659 0.312 0.708 -0.138 45.903
34 Air Force 0.175 0.267 0.586 0.248 1.642 0.281 0.593 0.312 1.632 -0.586 43.152
35 Rutgers 1.218 -1.908 0.765 0.989 -1.192 1.182 -0.536 1.719 -1.092 2.553 41.803
36 Indiana 1.218 -2.198 0.679 -0.729 1.461 0.139 1.055 0.483 0.344 0.444 41.675
37 Temple 1.218 -0.164 0.203 0.090 -0.524 0.040 -0.063 0.723 -0.877 -0.629 41.357
38 Navy 0.175 -0.225 0.559 -0.312 0.977 1.144 1.189 0.826 0.159 1.576 36.494
39 Central Mich. 0.175 -1.580 1.076 1.205 0.470 1.290 0.470 1.513 0.563 0.238 34.646
40 Florida St. 0.175 0.532 -0.211 1.162 0.170 0.319 0.330 0.278 0.402 -0.138 29.908
41 Texas Tech 0.175 0.727 0.506 0.839 0.148 -0.119 -0.084 0.106 -0.489 0.444 29.001
42 UCF 0.175 -0.448 1.473 0.309 -0.144 1.148 -0.238 0.895 -0.361 0.061 28.681
43 Southern Miss. 0.175 -0.310 0.521 0.060 1.805 0.508 -0.322 0.244 0.291 -0.081 27.935
44 Colorado 0.175 -0.088 -0.549 1.351 1.095 0.491 -0.363 0.106 -0.642 1.413 24.068
45 Arizona St. 0.175 -0.683 0.317 0.772 0.137 0.508 0.273 0.758 0.939 0.818 21.981
46 Houston 0.175 -0.739 0.690 -0.665 2.159 -0.419 1.095 -0.409 1.475 -1.519 21.037
47 Penn St. 0.175 -0.265 -0.524 0.754 1.366 0.650 -0.856 1.135 -0.494 1.268 20.740
48 Miami (FL) -0.346 0.385 0.570 0.532 0.764 1.144 -0.132 0.586 -0.083 0.650 20.542
49 Georgia Tech 0.175 -0.043 -0.002 -0.154 0.977 0.465 -0.664 0.312 0.344 -0.063 14.151
50 Syracuse 0.175 -1.518 0.159 0.858 0.051 0.963 0.584 0.450 -0.209 0.310 10.701
51 San Diego St. 0.175 -2.066 0.701 0.943 0.410 0.487 -0.627 0.792 1.562 1.492 10.018
52 Virginia -0.346 1.241 0.452 0.185 -0.308 0.255 -0.554 0.895 0.357 0.444 9.898
53 Toledo 0.175 0.143 -0.296 1.662 -0.269 -0.277 -0.832 -0.237 -2.033 -0.529 5.309
54 Idaho 0.175 -0.949 1.171 -0.793 -0.144 0.534 -0.327 0.895 0.010 0.632 4.774
55 SMU 0.175 -0.338 -0.545 1.162 -0.696 0.045 -0.220 0.278 0.051 0.224 2.142
56 Illinois 0.175 -1.025 -0.228 0.791 0.567 0.229 -1.139 0.792 -0.324 -0.129 0.659
57 Miami (OH) 0.175 -1.137 -0.303 1.650 -0.696 0.912 -0.460 0.209 -1.237 -0.498 0.394
58 Mississippi St. -0.867 1.348 0.079 0.236 0.444 0.873 -0.201 0.620 -0.300 0.363 -1.197
59 Virginia Tech -0.867 1.592 -0.402 0.273 0.267 0.315 1.395 -0.340 -0.130 -0.359 -3.025
60 Georgia -0.867 1.271 -0.686 1.101 -0.138 0.590 0.454 0.553 -0.551 -0.027 -6.539
61 Pittsburgh -0.346 0.643 -0.215 0.879 -0.798 -0.009 0.008 0.226 -0.368 -1.044 -6.857
62 Purdue 0.175 -0.956 -0.271 0.084 0.184 0.139 -0.641 0.483 -0.118 -0.317 -7.713
63 Maryland 0.175 0.156 0.730 -1.299 -1.598 0.058 0.422 0.792 -1.224 -0.808 -8.162
64 Army 0.175 -1.801 0.002 0.285 0.605 0.783 -1.217 0.450 -0.564 -0.586 -9.838
65 UTEP 0.175 -2.512 0.211 -0.263 2.091 -0.763 0.193 -0.100 1.001 -1.807 -11.286
66 South Fla. -0.346 0.291 0.908 -0.976 -0.620 0.126 -0.295 -0.237 0.759 0.855 -12.962
67 Baylor 0.175 -1.169 0.767 -0.635 -1.304 -0.110 -0.354 0.586 0.262 1.492 -15.291
68 Utah St. -0.867 0.718 0.686 -0.227 0.217 -0.101 -0.182 -0.615 0.489 0.163 -18.751
69 Kent St. -0.867 0.480 -0.025 1.540 -0.717 0.740 -0.836 0.381 -1.282 0.108 -18.757
70 Cincinnati -0.867 0.731 -1.129 0.833 0.009 0.049 0.483 0.209 -0.593 0.444 -24.137
71 Tennessee -0.867 1.462 0.704 -0.087 -2.118 0.629 -0.717 -0.271 0.010 0.291 -25.804
72 Kansas -0.867 0.586 0.481 -0.787 -0.218 0.513 -0.624 0.312 -1.109 0.357 -30.406
73 Fla. Atlantic -0.346 0.551 0.604 -2.548 -0.544 -0.576 0.704 -0.701 -0.758 2.256 -30.766
74 Clemson 0.175 -1.815 -0.199 -0.714 -1.304 -0.483 0.932 0.450 0.390 -0.633 -32.424
75 Buffalo -0.867 -0.567 0.906 0.267 -0.456 0.276 -1.287 0.450 -0.337 0.260 -35.108
76 Wake Forest 0.175 -0.399 -1.107 -0.397 0.217 -1.424 -0.948 -1.988 0.563 -0.263 -35.472
77 Notre Dame -0.867 1.040 -0.181 -0.952 -0.144 -1.196 0.015 -0.100 0.819 0.971 -37.869
78 Tulsa -0.867 1.027 -1.971 0.565 1.954 -2.192 0.291 -2.228 1.641 -0.462 -38.098
79 Troy -0.867 0.313 -0.275 -0.026 0.283 -1.432 0.371 -1.061 1.059 -1.204 -40.252
80 Connecticut -0.867 0.471 0.030 -0.379 -0.717 0.233 -1.152 0.278 0.088 -0.467 -40.627
81 Oregon St. -0.346 1.226 0.108 -1.387 -1.304 -1.316 -0.417 -0.546 -1.216 -1.821 -41.042
82 East Carolina 0.175 0.181 -2.364 -0.568 0.009 -1.664 0.282 -1.851 0.695 -1.872 -41.098
83 Louisville -0.867 0.280 -0.011 -0.379 -0.886 0.161 -0.704 0.003 0.010 1.067 -41.996
84 La.-Lafayette -0.346 0.280 -0.956 0.815 -1.215 -0.846 -1.034 -1.628 -1.265 0.550 -43.551
85 Mississippi -0.867 -0.698 -0.274 0.078 -0.710 0.367 0.557 -0.649 0.340 0.604 -43.815
86 Iowa St. -0.867 0.775 0.814 -1.561 -0.324 -0.179 -1.404 -0.031 -0.762 -0.105 -43.846
87 Bowling Green -0.867 0.094 0.767 -0.885 0.283 -1.480 -0.530 -0.683 -0.539 -0.435 -47.372
88 Northern Ill. -0.867 -0.310 0.075 -0.531 0.068 -0.316 -1.092 -0.031 -0.027 -0.169 -49.260
89 Middle Tenn. -0.867 -1.477 0.767 -0.769 0.385 -0.058 -0.400 -0.340 0.543 -0.719 -49.818
90 Minnesota -0.867 -0.266 -1.658 -0.105 0.723 -0.505 0.472 -0.649 0.183 0.114 -51.260
91 Washington -0.867 0.966 -0.284 -1.244 -0.269 -0.964 -0.382 -0.958 -0.200 -0.081 -51.617
92 Tulane -0.346 -2.268 -0.911 1.235 -1.070 0.397 -0.725 -0.031 -1.278 0.576 -52.083
93 Western Mich. -0.867 -0.976 -0.555 -0.409 0.191 0.259 -0.166 -0.615 0.278 0.877 -52.342
94 Rice -0.867 0.745 -0.649 -0.172 -0.589 -0.805 -0.911 -0.821 -0.861 -0.586 -54.419
95 Ohio -0.867 -0.074 0.019 -0.263 -1.093 0.779 -1.827 -0.065 -1.996 0.593 -54.823
96 Vanderbilt -0.867 1.314 0.006 -1.104 -1.950 -0.385 -1.302 0.244 -1.191 0.163 -56.323
97 Wyoming -0.867 1.921 -0.616 -1.195 -1.528 -1.583 0.476 -1.164 -1.687 -0.859 -58.581
98 UCLA -0.867 1.265 0.160 -1.189 -1.443 -0.200 -2.460 -0.271 -1.009 -1.304 -60.717
99 BYU -0.867 1.704 0.148 -2.304 -0.874 -1.055 -1.599 -0.512 -1.022 -0.678 -62.695
100 San Jose St. -0.867 1.576 -0.416 -0.678 -2.331 -1.183 -0.639 -0.512 -1.748 -0.956 -64.238
101 Duke -0.867 0.901 -1.232 -1.415 0.755 -2.059 -0.040 -2.469 0.724 -0.332 -65.401
102 FIU -1.910 0.934 1.589 0.084 -2.286 0.835 -1.800 0.072 -1.036 1.542 -65.809
103 UAB -0.867 -0.010 -0.972 -0.306 -0.710 -1.209 -0.627 -0.752 0.266 -0.002 -67.167
104 Memphis -0.867 0.357 -1.475 0.072 -0.949 -1.102 -0.069 -1.507 -0.902 -0.859 -69.052
105 Ball St. -0.867 -1.482 -0.390 -0.062 -0.424 0.075 -1.225 0.347 -0.964 -1.723 -69.275
106 Washington St. -0.867 0.518 -1.079 -0.714 -1.106 -1.368 0.019 -1.748 -0.683 0.357 -72.062
107 Hawaii -0.867 0.915 -2.691 -1.896 0.351 -0.994 0.787 -1.267 0.505 -2.048 -74.896
108 Louisiana Tech -0.867 -0.178 -1.315 -1.086 -1.241 -1.239 -0.899 -0.683 -0.601 -1.094 -90.468
109 Arkansas St. -0.867 -0.053 -1.795 -1.695 -0.653 -1.651 0.109 -1.095 0.580 -1.083 -90.628
110 UNLV -1.910 1.558 -1.102 -0.574 -0.411 -0.398 -1.245 -1.301 -1.786 -0.803 -93.828
111 North Texas -1.910 -0.141 0.039 -1.262 -0.047 -0.247 -0.768 -0.683 -0.300 0.145 -94.594
112 La.-Monroe -1.910 1.027 -1.101 -0.382 -0.009 -1.748 -0.710 -0.907 -1.185 -1.363 -99.462
113 North Carolina -1.910 2.105 -2.339 -2.219 -0.798 -0.383 0.969 -0.649 0.109 -1.006 -99.789
114 Marshall -1.910 1.635 -1.351 -0.592 -0.798 -1.454 -1.444 -1.439 -0.894 -0.586 -106.260
115 Colorado St. -1.910 1.011 -1.933 -0.744 -1.152 -0.793 -0.868 -1.198 -1.373 -1.723 -118.247
116 Eastern Mich. -1.910 -0.364 -0.819 -1.963 0.110 -0.814 -0.518 -1.370 -0.659 -1.628 -120.722
117 New Mexico -1.910 2.317 -1.767 -1.610 -0.870 -2.394 -1.668 -3.739 -1.592 -1.973 -133.443
118 Western Ky. -1.910 1.430 -2.672 -0.964 -0.798 -1.853 -0.740 -2.709 -1.175 -3.151 -134.314
119 Akron -1.910 -0.486 -1.021 -0.952 -1.034 -1.346 -1.981 -1.473 -1.769 -1.204 -139.936
120 New Mexico St. -1.910 -0.362 -0.758 -1.844 -0.442 -2.295 -1.156 -1.834 -0.906 -1.653 -140.879
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