SEC Power Poll, Week 4 Draft Ballot

by David Hooper on Sep 27, 2010 5:00 PM EDT in College Football

Our draft ballot uses the same computer ranking system that our BlogPoll ballot uses. Here is the list, and my thoughts follow after the jump:

SEC	Team	WL	SOS	PED	RD	3DO	TD	PEO	OPPG	TO	3DD	SCORE
1	Alabama	1.381	0.640	1.580	0.827	1.075	0.842	1.703	1.571	1.654	1.267	122.261
2	Florida	1.381	0.514	1.475	1.083	0.608	0.838	0.010	1.070	-0.381	0.947	100.297
3	LSU	1.381	1.336	0.511	1.478	0.085	1.429	-1.494	1.321	-1.112	1.177	93.588
4	Auburn	1.381	0.738	-0.011	0.827	0.718	0.052	2.257	0.124	1.084	0.463	92.531
5	South Carolina	0.520	0.665	-0.418	0.381	1.695	-0.200	0.743	0.625	0.069	-0.426	46.295
6	Arkansas	0.520	-0.382	0.274	0.135	-0.250	0.817	1.457	1.042	1.084	0.206	38.598
7	Kentucky	0.520	-0.774	0.978	-0.168	0.589	0.636	0.977	-0.182	0.992	0.385	36.997
8	Mississippi St.	-0.340	1.250	-0.155	0.391	0.745	0.646	-0.098	0.848	-0.466	0.061	17.637
9	Mississippi	-0.340	-0.467	-1.078	0.683	-0.221	0.109	0.960	-0.905	0.901	0.598	-19.169
10	Georgia	-1.201	1.277	-0.788	0.781	0.070	0.671	0.448	0.458	-0.427	-0.426	-21.307
11	Tennessee	-0.340	0.336	0.563	0.109	-2.544	-0.115	-0.413	-0.349	-0.309	0.189	-28.342
12	Vanderbilt	-0.914	1.615	0.081	-1.214	-2.132	-0.374	-1.380	0.282	-1.252	0.211	-56.502

In graphical form:

Alabama: clearly number one.

Florida/LSU/Auburn: all close enough to be effectively tied. They've all had rough spots this year, but I think I'll leave Florida up front for sheer talent. Auburn and LSU are wholly interchangeable. Got any logic for them?

South Carolina/Arkansas/Kentucky: I like this order because South Carolina is the best balanced of the three and Arkansas has more talent than Kentucky.

Mississippi St. is probably right where they should be.

Mississippi/Georgia/Tennessee: Oy. Mississippi's convincing win over Fresno made the difference here, as they're the only ones with a reasonable pelt. But ... Jacksonville St. Normally I'd move Tennessee above both of them, but last weekend should give us pause and realize that we're just as vulnerable as the other two. The difference is that it feels like Tennessee is moving in the right direction while Georgia and Mississippi are moving backwards. *sigh*

Vandy: Yep.

All in all, I am comfortable with the existing order. I can see making a couple adjustments, but only where the scores are already close. Unlike the BlogPoll, the teams in the Power Poll tend to have good separation and make sense early on. As for the numbers...

Cam Newton has the best efficiency numbers in the conference right now, particularly since Mallet has just run the Alabama gauntlet. If Auburn ever figures out this 'defense' thing, the Iron Bowl just might be huge again this year.

Yes, Tennessee's Third Down Offense is that bad. But they're NOT the worst in the nation. San Jose St. scores a -2.852 to our -2.544, which is significant and, to be crude about it, is like prostitutes debating who has more purity.

BUT, look who's on the schedule. Both of the worst Third Down Defenses are SEC East teams (South Carolina and Georgia). They're still better at 3DD than Tennessee is at 3DO, but I'll take anything I can get.

And no, that is not a typo. LSU is a positive 1.177 on 3DD. That's good for them, not for us.

All in all, having Georgia and Tennessee in the tank this early is hurting the SEC as a whole. This may very well be a year where a different conference is stronger overall, and will be worth keeping an eye on.

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Comments

In My Opinion

Auburn has looked much more impressive than LSU so far. The only reason LSU is undefeated is because of outstanding defense and special teams which I give them credit for but their offense has looked inept most of the time.

Florida Sucks!

by Orange Swarm on Sep 27, 2010 5:41 PM EDT reply actions

Wow, the three worst teams are in the SEC East

I still feel like Vandy should be ahead of Ole Miss due to the head to head win on the road that wasn’t particularly close. But since they’re three spots apart, that’s kinda hard. The question is: has Ole Miss turned the corner or was that a fluke?

by Incipient_Senescence on Sep 27, 2010 7:35 PM EDT reply actions

Which also tells us that this weekend is more important for Alabama than for Florida.

Florida’s season appears to come down to the South Carolina game; if the Gators win, they’re basically in the SECCG, even if they stub their toe on the way.

by David Hooper on Sep 27, 2010 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions

That’s what I’m telling myself; after all, an East team can always lose once to the West so long as it takes care of business in division. (Which has basically been UF’s business plan the last couple of decades.)

by peachy rex on Sep 27, 2010 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions

That's every team's business plan before the season starts.

Mike Tyson’s one moment of wisdom: ‘Everyone has a plan until he gets hit.’

by David Hooper on Sep 27, 2010 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Heh. Take a gander at UF’s West/East splits sometime; pretty stark difference.

by peachy rex on Sep 28, 2010 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions

I see that too.

But I also suspect that Saturday’s game might have been a bit of a colonic craniumectomy for Ole Miss as well. There’s also a reasonable argument for reseeding the last four as UGA/UT/Vandy/Miss, and I don’t mind doing that.

by David Hooper on Sep 27, 2010 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Honestly

I don’t/can’t see Georgia as the last team in the SEC. If this is based on current projections, I think you should go Vandy/Georgia/Tennessee/Ole Miss. Beating Fresno State at home doesn’t cancel out losing to an FCS team at home, especially in the fashion that they did, and as of today I think Ole Miss’s loss to Vandy is the worst performance I’ve seen. Vandy has beat a conference foe, so they go ahead, and Georgia has looked fairly good in their losses so far. I mean, they’ve been in all the games they’ve played and have shown that they have guns, even if they can’t shoot straight yet. UGA is also adding their best player back to their team, so I expect them to be much improved.

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I will give my North Carolina for Tennessee Today. Apparently.

by bobothevol on Sep 27, 2010 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Just in case I wasn't clear, I meant

number (9) UGA
number (10 UT …etc…

Not seeding UGA last. I don’t see that either.

I could see the Vandy … Miss order you mentioned. Something I realized and made mention to Will offline was that Vandy has only played three games so far. Early in the season, playing fewer games can do screwy things to teams in the rankings. This is probably one of those cases, so there’s a good reason to be a little more liberal with Vandy’s metrics than I would otherwise be.

by David Hooper on Sep 27, 2010 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I just think a conference win

As opposed to 3 conference losses (UGA) and a direct win in the only conference game for Ole Miss means Vandy goes ahead of them. And then tell me how to rank a team with 3 losses or a team with an FCS loss ahead of Tennessee.

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I will give my North Carolina for Tennessee Today. Apparently.

by bobothevol on Sep 28, 2010 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions