Volunteers vs. Crimson Tide Game Preview: Brought to you by Prius Nightmare Synergy

A weekly look at our upcoming opponent's recent history, with animated drive charts, links to SB Nation game pages, and statistical comparisons. Caveats.

Sketchy Conclusions

• This is going to be a tough game for UT, and not tough in the sense of it being difficult to win. It's going to be hard on morale, so keep it if you can.
• LSU's schedule appears to be a bit stronger than Alabama's to date. They've both played and beaten Florida. Alabama's beaten Arkansas, and LSU's beaten Oregon. The difference is LSU's win over West Virginia as compared to 'Bama's win over Penn State. Still, the difference is marginal, and the Tide's numbers are still better in most departments.
• If there's a soft spot on this Alabama team, it's in the passing game when they have the ball. They are still efficient, but they're not putting up a lot of passing yards. Then again, they don't have to because Trent Richardson is a ball hog.
• I'm not prone to hyperbole, but this may be the best defense we've seen in a decade. Best in the nation against the run, top five against the pass. Averaging a single TD per game.
• Part of what makes the Tide such a difficult opponent is that they are truly a team. Apart from Richardson, no one else really stands out. It's like that frightening commercial where a bunch of people fit together to make a big, freaky looking clump of stuff that sorta looks like a giant body but makes you go, "WHAT IS THAT THING? I NEVER WANT A PRIUS BECAUSE OF THIS COMMERCIAL!" Call it Nightmare Synergy.

Predictions

• Alabama 41, Tennessee 7.

Schedule and Animated Drive Charts

Alabama's averaging nearly 40 points per game while giving up only 7. The win against the Razorbacks is the Tide's best pelt, with Penn State contributing a bit, but it doesn't look like the schedule's been quite as tough as has LSU's.

As with LSU, Florida is the only common opponent between Alabama and Tennessee, so here are those drive charts:

Draw from those what you will. Florida scored 33 against us and 10 against the Tide. We managed 23 against Florida's D, and Alabama got 38. I'm sure there's good news in there somewhere, but it's not like I have all day, you know? There do seem to be a lot of punts for 'Bama against the Gators, but there are still those pesky 38 points.

National Unit Rankings

Offensive observations. Oh, look, they're worse than your average bear at passing yardage. Oh, look, it doesn't matter because they score almost 40 points every game. Oh, look, they're vulnerable to sacks. Oh, right. We don't believe in sacks.

Defensive observations. This is where you either run screaming back into the poppy field or stand there trembling and hope that Toto saves the day with the big reveal that it's all just a small man with buttons and levers and smoke and mirrors.

Special teams and turnovers observations. This is where we hope that Devrin Young is our Toto.

Players to Watch

This is where you slap your knee at my awesome joke.

Offensive Observations. Summary: Trent Richardson is awesome and A.J. McCarron is efficient. Seriously, Bill Connely is right. You load up to try to stop Richardson and take your chances in the passing game. So expect Tennessee's safeties to crowd the line again and the corners to be tested in single coverage. Best shot, even if the corners get beat again and it doesn't work all game.

Defense. I wonder what it is about these guys because apart from senior LB Courtney Upshaw, no individual is really standing out nationally on a defense that is, as a unit, best in the nation. Equal distribution of wealth, perhaps? Is Nick Saban really a communist?

Special teams. I was fixing to say that it really wasn't fair to have Richardson returning kicks, too, but he's only attempted two all year. Marquis Maze is dangerous returning punts, but it's not like we're 110th in net punting or anything. We just have to not punt is all.

Head to Head Comparisons

			Comps	Result Against Comps	Prediction
UT rush v. Alabama rush defense	89 (#114)	38.14 (#1)	LSU (75.14) (#6)	111	70
UT pass v. Alabama pass defense	294 (#25)	146 (#5)	Florida (168.43) (#10)	288	150
Alabama rush v. UT rush defense	159.67 (#69)	241.57 (#12)	LSU (194.43) (#29)	260	260
Alabama pass v. UT pass defense	190.67 (#24)	219 (#72)	Cincinnati (208) (#82)	230	220
UT scoring offense v. Alabama scoring defense	28.33 (#62)	7 (#1)	LSU (11.71) (7)	7	7
Alabama scoring offense v. UT scoring defense	23.33 (#44)	39.71 (#14)	LSU (38.43) (20)	38	41

As always, these are informed guesses rather than mathematical calculations, and the general analytical framework is this: We are averaging X in a certain category. The opponent averages Y against that, which is most closely comparable to some identified previous opponent, against whom we did Z. All of that leads to an informed guess labeled as Prediction. The less data you have, the more sketchy the guess, and the guesses range from ALL CAPS SKETCHY WITH EXCLAMATION POINTS at the beginning of the season to merely lower case sketchy for the last game.

This week's example: On average, we're running for 89 yards per game. Alabama is holding opponents to less than half that. The closest comp is LSU, which is holding opponents to 75.14. Against the Tigers, Tennessee got 111, which was perhaps a result of a stronger focus on the running game with Matt Simms at QB. So with all of that, our informed guess is 70 rushing yards for the Vols. Expecting a team ranked 114th nationally to get more on the ground than the #1 team is allowing may be foolhardy, but I think it's our only shot, and that last week is more an indicator of who we are now than were the previous weeks. So yeah, 70 yards rushing, best guess.

And yeah, I'm guessing Tennessee's total yards is roughly equal to Alabama's passing yards and less than their rushing yards.

Sketchy Conclusions

• This is going to be a tough game for UT, and not tough in the sense of it being difficult to win. It's going to be hard on morale, so keep it if you can.
• LSU's schedule appears to be a bit stronger than Alabama's to date. They've both played and beaten Florida. Alabama's beaten Arkansas, and LSU's beaten Oregon. The difference is LSU's win over West Virginia as compared to 'Bama's win over Penn State. Still, the difference is marginal, and the Tide's numbers are still better in most departments.
• If there's a soft spot on this Alabama team, it's in the passing game when they have the ball. They are still efficient, but they're not putting up a lot of passing yards. Then again, they don't have to because Trent Richardson is a ball hog.
• I'm not prone to hyperbole, but this may be the best defense we've seen in a decade. Best in the nation against the run, top five against the pass. Averaging a single TD per game.
• Part of what makes the Tide such a difficult opponent is that they are truly a team. Apart from Richardson, no one else really stands out. It's like that frightening Prius commercial where a bunch of people fit together to make a big, freaky looking clump of stuff that sorta looks like a giant body but makes you go, "WHAT IS THAT THING? I NEVER WANT A PRIUS BECAUSE OF THIS COMMERCIAL!" Call it Nightmare Synergy.

Predictions

• Alabama 41, Tennessee 7.