Tennessee vs South Carolina Preview - The People Are Starving

by Will Shelton on Oct 28, 2011 8:01 AM EDT in Tennessee Volunteer Football

A team with the depth and experience problems of three coaches in four years, plus four of its five best players injured or off the team, faces its third Top 15 opponent and Top 10 defense in a row. They'll do so with a true freshman quarterback who has thrown exactly zero passes in college.

Same problem, same result, right?

Or does this one feel a little different?

Maybe it's the fact that it's simply not LSU or Alabama. Maybe it's the fact that we're still not used to treating South Carolina as an equal (or close to it). Maybe it's the spark created by Justin Worley's presence. Maybe it's the absence of Stephen Garcia and Marcus Lattimore.

Maybe it's all of those things and then some. Maybe it's been so long since we won a big game, we know how good it would feel to break through and can sense it coming.

Sooner or later, we have to win one of these. Derek Dooley knows it. Knows it doesn't have to be this year with all the injuries, but at some point you have to stop being close, and at some point you have to man up and play football in the second half. Sooner or later.

But man, sooner would be such a relief. A release.

Here's how Tennessee can do it Saturday night against #14 South Carolina.

Is South Carolina's defense overrated?

It's been a significant storyline all week for Tennessee: after facing Alabama (first) and LSU (third), two of the nation's best in total defense, here comes South Carolina (seventh).

Butbutbut...look how they got there:

East Carolina: 345 yards (260 pass - 85 rush)
Georgia: 436 yards (248 pass - 188 rush)
Navy: 335 yards (61 pass - 274 rush)
Vanderbilt: 77 yards (73 pass - 4 rush)
Auburn: 358 yards (112 pass - 246 rush)
Kentucky: 96 yards (17 pass - 79 rush)
Mississippi State: 296 yards (165 pass - 131 rush)

Are you a good defense...or have you played Vanderbilt and Kentucky?

The Brayless Vols aren't a dynamic offense, unless Justin Worley is as good as we all want him to be right away. Yards still won't be free...but it won't be the last two weeks either.

I'm done trying to guess what Jim Chaney is going to do, how much we'll run with Tauren Poole (who needs to make sure he's in the same bad mood he brought to Tuscaloosa last week) or how many chances we'll take with Worley downfield. I just know it should be easier than it has been against an inflated defense.

But here's a fun stat for you: South Carolina leads the SEC in takeaways and is second in giveaways.

The Vols are tenth in turnover margin in the conference at -4. Carolina is tied for second at +6 (behind the incredibly insane +15 for LSU). But the Gamecocks have also been lucky, recovering 10 fumbles. You say it's not luck? Look, Memphis has recovered 10 fumbles.

Is it more likely that this game comes down to not who's better, Connor Shaw or Justin Worley...but who hurts his team least?

Shaw isn't as interception friendly as Garcia, which is unfortunate. And the concern with him has been holding the ball too long...which would be more of a problem if the Vols could generate any real pass rush. And of course, Worley is a true freshman in his very first start - he's automatically more likely to make mistakes.

Still, if our primary concern last week was the last maxim, this game could be about the first one: the team that makes the fewest mistakes will win. Many expect an ugly football game. But a victory of any kind would be the prettiest thing we've seen in Knoxville in a long, long time.

Is this the week it happens? Don't know. How will Worley look? No idea. I think Carolina's defense is statistically overrated, and the Vols will play better simply because it's not LSU or Alabama on the other sideline.

Will it be enough? Maybe. We'll need the sixty minute performance that has escaped Dooley's grasp. We'll need Worley to not get us beat. We'll need luck to balance out a little more. And we'll need our defense to carry the fight - shut down whatever their run game looks like without Lattimore, and don't let Shaw beat you on his own.

Tennessee fans are dying for a big win. Is this the one?

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Comments

While we're mitigating the turnover margin,

remember all those fumble we had early in the season that didn’t go to the other team? Tennessee’s been lucky too, and we’re still at -4.

by David Hooper on Oct 28, 2011 9:33 AM EDT reply actions

Two picks in seven games

we have to be on pace for some sort of passing-game-era record for futility

Rocky Top Talk

by Will Shelton on Oct 28, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Austin Johnson's pick against Bama was one

What was the other one?

by Ben Miller on Oct 28, 2011 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions

I believe Art Evans had one

Maybe a pick six, seems like ages ago.

by phil g on Oct 28, 2011 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Against Montana

So we’d gone 5 games without one until Bama.

Tennessee fans roll their eyes when I talk about Vandy, Vandy fans become ill when I talk about Tennessee.

by VolnVA on Oct 28, 2011 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions

You're right.

Wow that does seem like ages ago.

by Ben Miller on Oct 28, 2011 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions

I can't remember who it was against right now, but.....

didn’t A.J. Johnson have one, too? Or was it overturned?

GBO!!!

by PEEK-A-BOO on Oct 29, 2011 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions

AJ Johnson had a fumble recovery against Florida

where he just pulled the ball out when the RB was in a pile struggling to stay up

Heel for school, Vol for life!

Bolts, Preds, Canes (childhood team, home state team, hometown team). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity!

by Incipient_Senescence on Oct 29, 2011 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Yep.

That’s right. I knew I remembered seeing him run with the ball. Don’t know why, but I was thinking it was an INT.

GBO!!!

by PEEK-A-BOO on Oct 29, 2011 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions

At the very least...

…we are the bottom of Division 1 football this year. I checked the other day. I think we were last but I could be mis-remembering. There might be one team below us. Or we could be last.

No homer.

by kidbourbon on Oct 28, 2011 10:43 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

We're tied for 114th

with this lovely company: New Mexico, SMU, Kansas, Buffalo, Akron. Utah State stands alone at 120 with one interception this season. In the SEC, the Gators (4) are the only other team with less than 7.

But again, our pass defense has been pretty decent considering.

Rocky Top Talk

by Will Shelton on Oct 28, 2011 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions

New Mexico doesn't get a lot of interceptions?

Weird? You would think a juggernaut football program like that would constantly be putting teams in third and long situations and that their highly athletic and well-coached defensive backs would be swooping in left and right like prowling velociraptors but with thumbs, and just snagging tons of picks.

[New Mexico is the worst team in the FBS by a growing margin. They were also the worst team last year (I believe…definitely one of the worst three). You would think such putridity would be difficult to sustain. But Mike Locksley pulls it off. They deserve to be ridiculed…by everybody.]

No homer.

by kidbourbon on Oct 28, 2011 11:27 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

although to be fair, I think Locksley's replacement has been worse so far

Heel for school, Vol for life!

Bolts, Preds, Canes (childhood team, home state team, hometown team). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity!

by Incipient_Senescence on Oct 28, 2011 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions

Oh right...Locksley got fired

I forgot.

No homer.

by kidbourbon on Oct 28, 2011 3:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Did y'all know that velociraptors are like 2 feet tall

And roughly 35 pounds.

I mean, creative liberties are one thing. But a 35 pound pseudo-bird isn’t scaring anybody…I don’t care if he’s got a claw.

No homer.

by kidbourbon on Oct 28, 2011 3:48 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Heh. Yeah.

Dinosaur museum up in Wyoming has raptor skeletons from various species. Cute little things.

by David Hooper on Oct 28, 2011 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions

I think our lack of picks is at leasty partly due to weakness in the secondary.

Paging Teague on line two…

by David Hooper on Oct 28, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions

And partly due to scheme (i.e. worrying more about run than pass).

Recovering fumbles may not be a statistically significant skill, but causing them is. Interceptions are also a measurable skill, albeit one that is influenced by scheme. While South Carolina may have recovered a ton of fumbles, I don’t know off the top of my head how good they are at causing them. I do know we’re not good at causing interceptions, partly due to scheme and partly due to having a secondary that’s just not all that good at it.

What I’m getting at is that I just don’t see any room for some karmic equalization of their and our turnover numbers – even if such a thing existed. I do think SC is stronger at creating turnovers than UT. I also think that turnovers are such a high-variance stat that it’s entirely possible for UT to own the turnover margin in this next game. But SC’s not “due” for a letdown here, and we’re not “due” for a reprieve.

We just have to keep protecting the football (two hands, Lane!) and look for our opportunities as they may come. Hopefully without Lattimore, their RBs are more prone to turnovers than normal.

by David Hooper on Oct 28, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions

The scheme is a good point

In the last 3 games, at least, we’ve sold out to stop the run and left our corners on an island. Even if they were better than they were, one-on-one coverage isn’t the ideal situation for creating interceptions.

With Lattimore, I expect we’d see a lot of the same though with perhaps a tad more emphasis put on trying to cover Jeffrey. Without Lattimore, we should be able to put more people in coverage, possibly putting us in better situations to create some interceptions. As you point, out though, not because we’re “due,” just because the scheme might put us in a more favorable position.

Tennessee fans roll their eyes when I talk about Vandy, Vandy fans become ill when I talk about Tennessee.

by VolnVA on Oct 28, 2011 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions

This is true. I would think we'd try to stop the pass first this time around and see how it goes.

If so, we should be in better position for interceptions.

by David Hooper on Oct 28, 2011 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions

Karmic equalization of turnovers

I know it kinda sounds like karmic equalization of landing on black in roulette (which definitely does not exist), but there is ample evidence of something akin to a “karmic equalizaion” effect vis a vis turnovers. And, really, it is less showing karmic equalization, and more showing that excellent turnover margins is not something that can be sustained. I’m repeating myself a bit from a comment below this one, but there is enough fluke involved in turnover margins that a team never continually excels in that category like they might in a pure skill category like yards per play, or #3 and outs, etc.

No homer.

by kidbourbon on Oct 28, 2011 11:21 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Absolutely.

It’s wildly variant. And I think it gets amplified early on because of all the OOC mismatches that occur. As the weeks progress, conference play forces a higher rate of more equal matchups and the numbers settle down somewhat.

by David Hooper on Oct 28, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions

The Plexiglass Principle, localized.

Formerly 'snail. You get used to it after a while.

by Chris Pendley on Oct 28, 2011 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions

What is this principle of which you speak?

No homer.

by kidbourbon on Oct 28, 2011 3:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Regression back to the mean

Thanks Wikipedia.

And, yes, I think it can work in a localized fashion as well.

No homer.

by kidbourbon on Oct 28, 2011 3:51 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Right now just don't have any expectations

I’m just interested to see how Worley does and how the team responds to him. I’d like to see the run game take another step and the D to play a full game. I’m just not allowing myself to get all hyped and emotional for this game or this season. I’m just letting this season play out and looking forward to better days ahead.

by phil g on Oct 28, 2011 10:10 AM EDT reply actions

Wait am I the only one who thinks Worley sets all time passing records in his first game?

In all seriousness though. I would like to see the run game instill a little bit of confidence in me, and for the defense to cause some turnovers, since I think we’ve had like three all year.

by Ben Miller on Oct 28, 2011 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions

"I’m just letting this season play out and looking forward to better days ahead."

There sure were a LOT of us Vol fdans, myselfy included, who were saying that very thing last year. And the year before that. I’m getting sick of it. I want to start winning some games. Dooley is the man for the job. He needs to start doing his job. As good as we played Alabama for 30 minutes. Why can NO Tennessee coach seem to put together a full 60 minute football game? If they could do that, I think we’d be alright. I think we could play with most anybody in the nation. That doesn’t mean we could beat them, but that we could stay with them, and be in a position, hopefully, at the end of the game, where a win could be forseeable. GO VOLS!!!

GBO!!!

by PEEK-A-BOO on Oct 29, 2011 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions

we put 60 minutes together against Cincy

or at least 55 or so

Heel for school, Vol for life!

Bolts, Preds, Canes (childhood team, home state team, hometown team). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity!

by Incipient_Senescence on Oct 29, 2011 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions

True, but.......

once in 3 years? Once every 2 years? Once a year? What’s the difference? Tennessee is one of the most prestigious programs in the nation. Even with what we’re going through right now. It’s about time we started reminding people of that.

GBO!!!

by PEEK-A-BOO on Oct 29, 2011 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions

At least with Garcia starting...

…we would know that if we lost, it wouldn’t be by any more than four points.

#justsayin

No homer.

by kidbourbon on Oct 28, 2011 10:46 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

man.....

You just did such a great job of hitting on all of my self-doubts. This is really frustrating agreeing with a lot of what you say. We did give up some big numbers to UGA, ECU, Navy etc. And this is only the 4th Start for Connor Shaw. I expect Tennessee to be much more difficult than Miss State was for the Sophomore QB.

But I also feel like the Defense performed better against ECU and UGA than those numbers would indicate. It’s probably because of the big plays and the turnovers that I feel better about those games. And while we gave up a lot of yards to Auburn, we still held them to less than 20 points. I would expect us to do the same to Tennessee.

Good stat on the turnover margin, now imagine if Garcia hadn’t thrown NINE interceptions. Losing Lattimore hurt, but getting Connor Shaw in there seems to be a blessing. I like South Carolina to win despite the history between USC and UT. I only hope that USC fans are classier this year than they were in 2009. I worked with a guy who has been a UT season ticket holder for more than 10 years, much longer actually, had a drink spilled on him by a Carolina fan, had obscenities directed at his wife. Awful display.

There’s some in every crowd, I hope that Carolina fans are on good behavior this weekend. Best of luck.

- FOW

by skandrewj62j on Oct 28, 2011 11:10 AM EDT reply actions

Good thoughts

thanks for that

Rocky Top Talk

by Will Shelton on Oct 28, 2011 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Good sportsmanship.

Good luck to you guys, too.

GBO!!!

by PEEK-A-BOO on Oct 29, 2011 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Turnovers

(1) Fumbles are flukier than interceptions.

(2) Forcing fumbles cannot be completely divorced from skill, but there is certainly an element of luck or flukiness involved.

(2a) For example, find me a terrible defense (and use a statistic independent of turnovers as your guide to finding that terrible defense. Yards per play, perhaps. Believe me, it won’t be hard to find a terrible defense) that has forced a lot of fumbles. Good luck in your search, because you won’t find one.

(2b) On the flipside of that point, ask me to find you a really good defense that has NOT forced a lot of fumbles, and I’ll be able to find you one….and then a couple more if you ask really nicely.

(3) One the ball has been fumbled, one of the two teams will recover the fumble. It will not be because of skill. Recovering fumbles is completely luck — random chance — and there is much data to support this. I believe by Football Outsiders.

(4) There is probably some element of flukiness involved in getting interceptions. Well, there is DEFINITELY some element of flukiness…but intuitively it seems like it would be a small factor. I don’t know how to appropriately divide the interception pie into skill vs. luck sections. But if that pie happens to taste anything like a pumpkin pie, then I just called dibs on the “skill” part of the pie.

(5) In view of all of the above, it shouldn’t be surprising that teams with high turnover margins (either in the bad or good variety) in a given year tend to regress back to the mean the following year. Phil Steele has devoted many many many pages of non-eloquent prose to this phenomenon.

No homer.

by kidbourbon on Oct 28, 2011 11:13 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

?Forcing fumbles cannot be completely divorced from skill, but there is certainly an element of luck or flukiness involved."

In practice, we were always told to tackle the ball. You tackle the ball, and either the carrier goes down to save possession, or you come away with it. If the guy is stronger than you, and you can’t take him down, you’ll at least hold him up enough to allow someone to get over there and help you. Dooley should try that.

We were also told that if you can’t get to where the position where the carrier is carrying the ball, then grab ahold of him and fall down. Either he’ll go down, or carrying your dead weight will, again, hold him up enough to allow someone to get over there to help. Coach should try this one, too. Both are win-win situations.

GBO!!!

by PEEK-A-BOO on Oct 29, 2011 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions