What's the worst that can happen in an eight point loss?

by Will Shelton on Oct 10, 2011 7:03 AM EDT in Tennessee Volunteer Football

Because I would submit Saturday night as the answer.

The distance between the way we felt at halftime and the way we feel now is, uh, far. And what makes it worse for all involved is the way Tennessee looked against Cincinnati just four weeks ago.

I'm sure that sentence says a lot about where we are as a program - "Man, remember when we beat Cincinnati? Those were good times." - but there's some real truth in there. The only thing worse than watching your team struggle and then knowing it's going to get worse due to injury is doing both of those things after having gotten just a small taste of what your team could've been.

But, to use the phrase everyone loves the most, it is what it is. Injuries are a part of football. You can subscribe to that whole, "Woe is us, we're cursed, how much longer must we suffer" thing, but honestly, I'm tired of it.

So let's deal with what's worth being upset about, what's not, and where we go from here.

Hit The Reset Button

Forget the SEC East. Forget 8-4. This season just became last season.

In August, I felt like 8-4 was a realistic goal. In September, I thought we were going to beat Florida. And at halftime last night, I thought we were going to be in the hunt for Atlanta.

But before all of that, if you'd asked me what I thought our record would be without Tyler Bray, Justin Hunter, Herman Lathers, and Janzen Jackson, I would've said 5-7.

Thankfully, we already beat Cincinnati. But now with Matt Simms under center, the goals return to what they were the last time he started: get bowl eligible. Is this Tennessee team, led by Simms, good enough to beat MTSU, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky, and get back to Christmas in Nashville (because you're crazy if you think the Music City Bowl will ever pass up Tennessee the way they sold tickets last year)?

I feel like the answer to that isn't definitely yes, but exists somewhere in the maybe-to-probably range. No Tennessee team in our lifetimes has been expected to lose to Vandy or Kentucky or a Sun Belt school, and this one shouldn't be the exception. Get to 6-6, get back to a bowl game, and hopefully win it with Tyler Bray's thumb. And if Matt Simms is able to pull off any other victory along the way, God bless that young man. We'll be pulling for him.

We just ripped the band-aid off our expectations for this season. And it hurt something awful last night. Maybe the Vols would've gone 6-6 with a healthy Tyler Bray. But there's no way to know now, and absolutely no point in speculating on it. Matt Simms is the present. Embrace it.

This is the part where I also want to write, "You can't hold anything that happens this year against Dooley." And starting next week, that's probably true - I'm not sure what coach in America could pull off an upset with the team that currently exists. You can't judge Dooley on what he does without four of his best five players - and you tell me if that's an exaggeration or not - and since it was also unfair to judge him based on what he did last season, you've got an incredibly small sample size left to work with.

But see, here's the one thing that really bothers me. In any other year, if we lost our starting quarterback, we'd all just say, "Okay, we'll just run more." This year?

The Questions We'll Be Asking For The Next Eleven Months

These are the fundamental problems with Tennessee's football team, and they are really bad problems to have in the SEC:

The Vols can't run the ball against any defense of any merit
The Vols can't get any pressure on any quarterback of merit with just the front four

The second problem isn't new; Fulmer and Kiffin also knew it well. I would submit to you that the problem with Georgia's deep balls last night wasn't the secondary's sole responsibility; Tennessee played aggressive against the run with their safeties up much of the night, and it worked - Isaiah Crowell had just 51 yards, and Georgia was held to 3.7 yards per carry. But when you do that, you leave yourself open to the deep ball. Aaron Murray isn't an idiot, and he wasn't throwing to guys who run a five flat. When the Vols couldn't even make Murray sweat in the pocket? He did what good quarterbacks will continue to do to UT's defense.

How is that problem going to get better? Don't know.

The run game is atrocious, and any defense of what we've seen against Florida and Georgia is really, really a stretch. I don't know if it's Poole or the line or both. I just know it's awful to begin with, and then we made it worse with ill-advised toss sweeps and snaps over the quarterbacks head.

How is that problem going to get better? Don't know. Marlin Lane had seven carries for eight yards. He's not the magic wand.

Unless something incredibly drastic and unexpected happens the rest of this season in the run game, we're going to spend the entire offseason wondering. As much as we all want to believe in the mythical 2012 team - and as much as we've seen from Bray and Rogers and Hunter (and Mychal Rivera, whose performance against Georgia will get overshadowed, and that's unfortunate) - if Tennessee continues to literally go backward in the ground game against SEC competition this year, there's nothing tangible we'll see between now and next fall to make us believe it's going to be any different. We'll do the idiot optimist stuff and convince ourselves it's going to be better. But in the back of our minds, we'll be left to wonder.

Who are the new faces on the offensive or defensive lines that are going to change this? Don't know.

Those two issues are worth being upset about.

What's not worth being upset about

Not going for it on 4th and 15 with eight minutes left. 4th and 1? Sure. 4th and 5? Sure. 4th and 15? Give me a break. Punting the ball was the absolute right call.
Matt Simms' play. Simms has played before and isn't immune to criticism - if he struggles going forward, we'll have the right to say so. But don't kill the guy for what he did in two minutes on the fly - which included getting us in the end zone. Simms ain't Crompton. He can manage.
The defense as a whole. The "our defense sucks!" stuff is overreaction today, and people need to remember that as the week goes along. That was Georgia's lowest point total of the season. The big plays are frustrating, and the inability to sack the quarterback is very concerning. But this defense doesn't suck. Not even close. Are they good enough to carry an offense that's just become the greatest concern? We'll find out.
Special teams AS A WHOLE. Believe me, last night in Neyland Stadium I did this. You get an extra point blocked, we all go, "Here we go again!" and use words like "unacceptable". But today, I've also thought about Devrin Young, and the punt we downed at the three yard line, and the fact that Palardy hit a big field goal at the end of the first half, and the one he missed was from 51 yards. And most importantly, our kick coverage, which is 12th in the nation. Our special teams play is frustrating because we do one stupid thing per game with alarming accuracy. But there has been improvement in that phase...it's just hard to see.

Put Derek Dooley's chair back in the freezer. Now.

Here's the worst that can happen from last night: this ridiculous notion that our head coach is on a seat that could be described with any degree of warmth.

My problem isn't so much with what the media say. They're going to write stories that generate attention. Even among a number of local media who are UT alums or are self-professing UT fans, when you work in the media, it's your job to be unbiased (or at least less biased). It's also your job to get people to read and/or listen to what you have to say. Some will antagonize. Others will use it as a conversation starter. That's their job. It's your choice to read.

What I do have a problem with is the number of UT fans who might agree with this idea.

You know who left first last night? The section that was quickest to empty out? To no surprise, it was the lower level sideline behind UT's bench: the big money donors (and if you sit there and you stayed, well done, and I'm definitely not addressing you). It drives me absolutely insane that those who have the most power and influence among the fanbase are almost always the quickest to bail out. The Vols were never down more than 14 points last night and Georgia never took a knee. It was a situation that UT fans never, ever would've left early under in any previous year. I'm not talking about getting beat by 20+ against great teams. I'm talking about a game where the outcome was technically in doubt on every single play.

And yet, they left. They'll be the first to bail on Cuonzo Martin too, just wait.

And so when we start with this, "Uh oh, UT fans are apathetic again, we have to do something!" nonsense? How about instead we call these people on their inability to support their team. If you left midway through the fourth quarter last night, shame on you. Tennessee deserves better.

My favorite tweet of the last 24 hours was this one from Jayson Swain - his part is only two words, but is this what it's coming to for some of us? You want Urban Meyer(s)? Hey, I'd love Vince Lombardi.

If you're out there campaigning for someone else to be our head coach right now - and I don't care who it is - I question what you've learned in the last four years. Because that's the answer, right? Four coaches in five years? Let's judge the guy who walked into Kiffin's mess in 2010 then lost four of his five best players to injury in 2011 - which is FIVE GAMES old - and say he can't get it done. That sounds reasonable.

There. Are. No. Quick. Fixes.

Look, I'm the most optimistic UT fan you know. And even I would tell you that the reason we thought UT could get to Atlanta this year is because the East was down, not because the Vols would suddenly return to their late 90s selves. It cannot be about getting back. It's always about moving forward...and if you look between the injuries, I believe this team is still doing that right now.

You think Dooley's on the hot seat? Stop being part of the problem. Start being part of the solution. Get behind Derek Dooley, and get used to it. Because unless we've all gone completely insane - and at this point, I wouldn't rule it out - he's going to be around here awhile. At least long enough to fairly figure out what he can actually do on a reasonable timetable. And we're not going to get that answer this season.

What are we going to get the rest of this season? I have no idea...but I'll be there Saturday to find out.

Go Vols.

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I’ve been getting into a twitter war with a formerly reasonable fan on the state of both the program and Coach Dooley (he holds these two positions simultaneously: first, UT is doomed to being a bottom-tier team from here on out, and 6 win seasons are to be celebrated; second, Dooley is in over his head and should be fired. How one can have both these beliefs, despite Dooley having a 6 win season, is beyond me). It’s extremely frustrating. I’m seriously thinking about writing up an analysis of expectations based on Vegas lines and comparing the last five years. I think it will come out to a (hopefully unnecessary) defense of Dooley. Will probably make it a Fan Post tonight or tomorrow.

But the point about expectations is spot on. I think everyone gets that 8-4 is out the window, but there’s an overriding feeling that it’s somehow the fault of our coaching. Your line about how you would’ve expected 5-7 knowing about these injuries in advance is exactly what people need to understand.

Heel for school, Vol for life!

Bolts, Preds, Canes (childhood team, home state team, hometown team). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity!

by Incipient_Senescence on Oct 9, 2011 8:33 PM EDT reply actions

I look forward to that prospective piece.

Looks like an interesting idea.

If I hit a hole-in-one on this grand slam the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.

by jasonkylebates on Oct 9, 2011 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions

hope it lives up to expectations

I have a tendency towards verbosity

Heel for school, Vol for life!

Bolts, Preds, Canes (childhood team, home state team, hometown team). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity!

by Incipient_Senescence on Oct 9, 2011 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions

You'll clearly have a hard time fitting in here

Rocky Top Talk

by Will Shelton on Oct 9, 2011 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I know, right?

one line comment here = irony

Heel for school, Vol for life!

Bolts, Preds, Canes (childhood team, home state team, hometown team). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity!

by Incipient_Senescence on Oct 9, 2011 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions

That's my boy.

by GhostDance on Oct 9, 2011 8:37 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Our problems last night...

…were in the trenches. O-Line couldn’t effectively block, D-Line couldn’t effectively generate pressure.

Anyone calling for Dooley’s job is a moron. Period.

If I hit a hole-in-one on this grand slam the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.

by jasonkylebates on Oct 9, 2011 8:40 PM EDT reply actions

DL is great at gap control, terrible at penetration

is that Wilcox doing a good job covering a weakness, or is it a failure to coach pass rushing?

Heel for school, Vol for life!

Bolts, Preds, Canes (childhood team, home state team, hometown team). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity!

by Incipient_Senescence on Oct 9, 2011 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions

I think its just the line being young, not having 2-3 years of college weight training.

They have good technique/discipline but don’t have the strength yet to get significant push off the ball. I think thats also the reason why our o-line is pretty good at pass protection but can’t generate a push when we run the ball.

Bring it across, shape it down

by Getoffmyvols on Oct 9, 2011 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions

And a change in SC coaching to boot.

This is just their second year under the current guy.

by David Hooper on Oct 9, 2011 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions

This is actually their first year under the current guy

Benny Wiley split after last year.

Bring it across, shape it down

by Getoffmyvols on Oct 9, 2011 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions

hive'd

Heel for school, Vol for life!

Bolts, Preds, Canes (childhood team, home state team, hometown team). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity!

by Incipient_Senescence on Oct 9, 2011 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Right.

Typing without thinking again. I associate him with Kiffin.

by David Hooper on Oct 10, 2011 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions

first*

Heel for school, Vol for life!

Bolts, Preds, Canes (childhood team, home state team, hometown team). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity!

by Incipient_Senescence on Oct 9, 2011 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions

This was the piece I couldn't figure out how to write last night.

Thanks, Will.

Formerly 'snail. You get used to it after a while.

by Chris Pendley on Oct 9, 2011 8:51 PM EDT reply actions

Hell

Thank you both for keeping us in perspective. :)

BloodSpite
"Gentlemen, it is better to have died as a small boy than to fumble this football." -John Heisman

"Nobody despises to lose more than I do. That's got me into trouble over the years, but it also made a man of mediocre ability into a pretty good coach". -Woody Hayes

by Joseph Stanley on Oct 9, 2011 8:58 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

You speak the truth.

sweet. mother. of. breadsticks.

by RockyTopinKY on Oct 9, 2011 8:57 PM EDT reply actions

Congrats on a hard gought game Vols...

…hate to see Bray’s injury. Stuff happens…You guys played it out to the end. Good luck the rest of the season

Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the Dawgs of war; - Julius Caesar, Act III, Scene 1

by Vietnam Dog on Oct 9, 2011 9:13 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks

Rocky Top Talk

by Will Shelton on Oct 9, 2011 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions

What a load of crap!

Kidding… great article. For whatever reason we continue to be snakebitten in some way every season lately, but things will either get better or they wont. Our recruiting is doing well enough that either way we’ll have enough talent to succeed sooner rather than later, so even pseudo-failure wouldn’t literally kill our program.

I do have some concerns over position coaching, but I’m not enough of an expert to really figure out that sort of stuff from watching film. You are right though, it’s incredibly frustrating when you only get these guys for a handful of years… and those years only consist of a handful of games when they start getting hurt. I don’t look at it as Hunter being out until next season, I look at it as potentially 10 games where I don’t get to enjoy seeing Hunter play in orange. That sucks.

by Caban on Oct 9, 2011 9:27 PM EDT reply actions

Good job. Thank you for a little perspective.

'Without change something sleeps inside us, and seldom awakens. The sleeper must awaken.' -Frank Herbert

by chuckiepoo on Oct 9, 2011 9:37 PM EDT reply actions

A "pants-worthy" article

Watching on our TV from 3000 miles away, RTT community keeps us involved while keepin it classy. Bleedin orange in the northwest where the cheering will never stop. LSU? Alambama? Bring ’em on. Put on your big boy pants and support this team and Coach DD. Go Vols!

by orangegal on Oct 9, 2011 9:45 PM EDT reply actions

Just the perfect article

It’s everything I’ve been wanting to say since I got home at 3 a.m. last night and all the time I was watching my 1-year-old play in the pumpkin patch today.

Get bowl eligible. Win the Whatever Bowl. Finish 7-6. Take a step forward. Enjoy next season.

Holdin' it down on enemy grounds.

Anti-Snail on offense; Give me a slobberknocker, or give me death!

by Brad Shepard on Oct 9, 2011 10:36 PM EDT reply actions

I feel better now

Thank you Will for once again a great article. I think it’s completely ridiculous to be calling for Dooley’s job..if you’re not willing to give him AT LEAST 3 years then you’re just dumb. However, maybe a coordinator or two may need to be examined at the end of the year…I’m just saying..

I can take losing to Georgia (well, sort of..) and if we end up 6-6 that’s fine by me at this point..but the bad luck is what sucks. You can complain all you want and it’ll never get you anywhere though. Let’s back Dooley, let’s back Simms and let’s back our Vols…hey, LSU and Alabama..you better be ready…you never know when we might just shock the world!

by Solid Orange on Oct 9, 2011 10:56 PM EDT reply actions

How is it possible...

that almost everythng you write is EXACTLY how I feel? We must be, as Anne of Green Gables would say, “kindred spirits”.

"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti

by sddbaker on Oct 9, 2011 11:18 PM EDT reply actions

Great Article, Will

I feel a little better.

I was embarrassed last night at the fanbase bailing on the team in the fourth quarter. I hear all the time from opposing fanbases about how Tennessee fans bail so quickly when the game appears in doubt. I always figured it was exaggerated but now I’m starting to believe we might have the worst fans in the SEC. This team needs us more than ever now and they deserve our support. We could learn something from the South Carolina fanbase as sad as that sounds.

I’ll be there this Saturday screaming my head off (and hoping that Mathieu doesn’t rip Simms’ heart out and show it to him in front of 100,000 people).

by Pandemonium Reigns on Oct 9, 2011 11:21 PM EDT reply actions

I'll be there as well

first game since Montana. I think we should open up with a flea flicker to Da’Rick and follow it with an 81 yard bomb from the small cannon hidden in Simms’ helmet to Justin Hunter, who will make a one-handed grab while using the other to balance himself on his crutches.

Heel for school, Vol for life!

Bolts, Preds, Canes (childhood team, home state team, hometown team). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity!

by Incipient_Senescence on Oct 9, 2011 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

We have to go all out...

open up with an onside kick if you have to… go for it on 4th and short. For us to have any chance whatsoever of an upset, we’re going to need to steal some points and possessions.

by Caban on Oct 9, 2011 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I liked that Dooley was aggressive against them last year

after the LaMarcus Thompson end zone INT, we came out throwing and it almost won us the game

Rocky Top Talk

by Will Shelton on Oct 9, 2011 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions

We used to have great fans...

loud, stuck around until the end, and were incredibly polite to visiting fans.

Instead we became so spoiled by the 90s, that the failures of the last half of the 2000s completely ruined us. I also blame the increased admission standards a bit… 4.0 students aren’t generally the biggest sports fans in the world. First time I was at UT, people would talk about football all the time. By the time I got back, I don’t think I had a football discussion more than once a week.

by Caban on Oct 9, 2011 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions

May have mentioned this on here before

the Arkansas game in 2007 was the first one that really made me step back. That was a truly meaningful game against a team with a marquee player – the 12:21 kickoff may not have helped, but man, there were all kinds of empty seats there. I think a certain percentage had already soured on us by then, and it certainly hasn’t gotten any better in the last four years.

Rocky Top Talk

by Will Shelton on Oct 9, 2011 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions

There was a vocal crowd...

Calling for Fulmer’s head as early as 99 after the Arkansas game… most folks gave him the benefit of the doubt in 2000 because of the new QBs, but by the end of 2002 it was building pretty fast.

Honestly, there were folks calling for his head before 1998 too… but that’s the only offseason I can remember where there was relative peace and quiet.

I really believe some folks just got sick of the stress of being so invested, and are sort of taking a wait and see attitude now. Certainly explains how we can go from 300,000+ trying to get tickets to the UF game in 1998 to a stadium half full of Bama fans in ten years.

by Caban on Oct 9, 2011 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions

hey!

Signed,

A 4.0 student (okay, until I got two A-’s in grad school) with 25,000 SBNation posts in the last two years

Heel for school, Vol for life!

Bolts, Preds, Canes (childhood team, home state team, hometown team). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity!

by Incipient_Senescence on Oct 9, 2011 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions

"...and Mychal Rivera, whose performance against Georgia will get overshadowed, and that's unfortunate".....

Not that my opinion matter the least little bit or anything, but I actually texted Brad during the game and something along the lines of “This game is Rivera’s for the taking, if he wants it”. Incredibly impressive performance.

GBO!!!

by PEEK-A-BOO on Oct 10, 2011 7:54 PM EDT reply actions