Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores: Game Preview

A weekly look at our upcoming opponent's recent history, with animated drive charts, links to SB Nation game pages, and statistical comparisons. Caveats.

Sketchy Conclusions

• Vanderbilt has had nearly the same misfortune of schedule that Tennessee has had, playing both Alabama and Arkansas from the West. Trade their Kentucky for our LSU, and we trade records.
• The 2011 Tennessee Volunteers are not necessarily any better than a Salted Caramel Mocha Frappuccino®.
• Vandy's offensive numbers are woeful, and their biggest threat is the running game, and Tennessee's defense has done an admirable job (for a half) when it can focus on stopping the run.
• The Commodores again have a solid defense. But see Tennessee's offense. Will Tyler Bray return? Will it matter?

Predictions

• Tennessee 14, Vanderbilt 10

Schedule and Animated Drive Charts

Games against South Carolina and Alabama ended similarly for both Vanderbilt and Tennessee. The Georgia game looks better for the Commodores, although Georgia scored more on them, as does the Arkansas game, which looks better for the 'Dores on both sides of the ball, but both of those games were at home. Florida was so long ago for us that I don't think it matters. Bottom line, the resumes for both teams are depressing, and you can point to either to support whatever argument you like. Let's try it. Premise: The Salted Caramel Mocha Frappuccino® from Starbucks tastes like liquid pretzel. Vandy 2011 has learned to Jump Around but is still Vandy. Tennessee is struggling this year. Therefore, the Vols are better than salted pretzels. Okay, so maybe it doesn't work for any argument.

Measuring sticks:

Looking at those two drive charts against a common opponent, it certainly looks like Vandy is much more capable than the Vols. Of course, it also serves as evidence that Vandy is as Vandy does. I mean, yikes, that had to be a heartbreaking game for them, what with the fumble for the TD, the follow up fumble, the two subsequent punts, and the missed short field goal to lose the game. We're not is as we do yet, are we?

National Unit Rankings

Offensive observations. Oh, good. Can't pass. Runs only moderately well. As Dooley said in his post-practice on-field session yesterday, the team does pretty well when they can reduce the space. It's why they've been able to sort of survive the running games, at least at times, of superpowers like Alabama and LSU. We should be able to get back to having the defense focus on one dimension, and that one dimension isn't all that great anyway. Be prepared for a couple of big passing plays resulting from overcommitment to the run, but Vandy's passing numbers suggest that that isn't a huge threat, either.

Defensive observations. This is a bit twitchy for Vol fans. Vandy's usually pretty stout defensively, and this year is no exception. They're basicallly top quartile in most things that matter, and they've played many of the same teams that Tennessee has, including both Alabama and Arkansas from the west. With our offensive #challenges, this could spell trouble. Good thing that Derek Dooley said that Tyler Bray's thumb has magically turned into gold upon emerging from the cast and that he's going to be AWESOME.

Special teams and turnovers observations. Eh.

Players to Watch

Offensive Observations. Redshirt junior Jordan Rodgers is Zach Rodgers' little brother and has recently lost a hundred pounds in five languages. Ba-dump bump crash. If there's anything to be particularly concerned about here, it's the fact that Rodgers is getting 30 yards per game rushing. We did okay against Zach Collaros but not so well against Jordan Jefferson. The guy for our secondary to focus on is Jordan Matthews, and Chris Boyd gets about half what Matthews gets. Zac Stacy seems serviceable.

Defense. Vandy has two guys nationally ranked for interceptions, including Casey Hayward, who's tied for 8th. He gets one every two games, but he hasn't had one for the last four games. Is he due or done? Senior defensive lineman Tim Fugger could be a foce to contend with. And yes, Vandy has a football player named Archibald Barnes. Are you surprised?

Special teams. Eh again.

Head to Head Comparisons

			Comps	Result Against Comps	Prediction
UT rush v. Vanderbilt rush defense	91.90 (#116)	122.90 (#32)	South Carolina (132) (#44)	35	25
UT pass v. Vanderbilt pass defense	250.70 (#41)	204.70 (#39)	Arkansas (203) (#35)	238	250
Vanderbilt rush v. UT rush defense	166.00 (#68)	162.40 (#59)	MTSU (159.89) (#62)	97	100
Vanderbilt pass v. UT pass defense	192.60 (#23)	172.50 (#100)	LSU/South Carolina (173.90/170.20) (#99/#102)	146/87	115
UT scoring offense v. Vanderbilt scoring defense	21.00 (#102)	21.60 (#31)	Arkansas (21.50) (#30)	7	14
Vanderbilt scoring offense v. UT scoring defense	24.00 (#50)	26.10 (#68)	MTSU (24.78) (#81)	0	10

As always, these are informed guesses rather than mathematical calculations, and the general analytical framework is this: We are averaging X in a certain category. The opponent averages Y against that, which is most closely comparable to some identified previous opponent, against whom we did Z. All of that leads to an informed guess labeled as Prediction. The less data you have, the more sketchy the guess, and the guesses range from ALL CAPS SKETCHY WITH EXCLAMATION POINTS at the beginning of the season to merely lower case sketchy for the last game.

This week's example: We're averaging about 90 yards per game on the ground while Vandy's opponents average about 123. The closest comp is South Carolina, against whom we rushed for 35 Fulmerized yards. I'm guessing we get 25, and the sad part is that that may be optimistic.

Should we do alternate predictions depending on whether Tyler Bray plays? I don't think so. Dooley's right. If he plays, he's not going to be the same guy he was against Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Montana. His presence may lend some much-needed confidence to the offense, but him floudering or failing could have the opposite effect. I think that if he plays, the team does better this week but doesn't set the world on fire.

Sketchy Conclusions

• Vanderbilt has had nearly the same misfortune of schedule that Tennessee has had, playing both Alabama and Arkansas from the West. Trade their Kentucky for our LSU, and we trade records.
• The 2011 Tennessee Volunteers are not necessarily any better than a Salted Caramel Mocha Frappuccino®.
• Vandy's offensive numbers are woeful, and their biggest threat is the running game, and Tennessee's defense has done an admirable job (for a half) when it can focus on stopping the run.
• The Commodores again have a solid defense. But see Tennessee's offense. Will Tyler Bray return? Will it matter?

Predictions

• Tennessee 14, Vanderbilt 10