Tennessee Volunteers vs. MTSU Blue Raiders Game Preview

A weekly look at our upcoming opponent's recent history, with animated drive charts, links to SB Nation game pages, and statistical comparisons. Caveats.

Sketchy Conclusions

• The respective schedules of Tennessee and MTSU make statistical comparisons problematic. The Blue Raiders have compiled theirs against a poor slate with a good team or two while the Vols have built their resume against the mirror image of that.
• Believe it or not, MTSU's passing attack may be the best that the Vols have faced all season. According to the national rankings, the closest comparison is Georgia, who ranks 54th to the Blue Raiders' 21st. At least Tennessee's not vulnerable there. Gulp. And at least we haven't lost yet another guy back there. Big Gulp.
• MTSU's defense is terrrible and provides a good game for Justin Worley to shake off last week and start his ascent to Volunteer stardom.

Predictions

• Tennessee 31, MTSU 17.

Schedules

Nothing to see or compare here, really. Similar records -- 2-5 theirs to 3-5 ours -- but their loss column includes Troy, Western Kentucky, and a very different team from Louisiana. No common opponents, so no drive charts. Faux sad face.

National Unit Rankings

Offensive observations. Here's where we emphasize the key caveat again. MTSU has compiled its stats against weak competition, okay? Okay. With that in mind, they appear to be middle of the pack in most things except that they're top quartile in total offense primarily due to their passing game. In fact, as you'll see later on, the Blue Raiders have, on paper, the best passing attack the Vols have faced all season, and it's not even close. The next best passing team in the rankings is Georgia, and they're way down at #54. Add to that the fact that we lost Brent Brewer last week, and this is the Uh-Oh stat of the week. Oh, and they don't allow sacks, so we shouldn't expect any from a defense not very good at getting them.

Defensive observations. Here's good news. MTSU's defense is terrible, pretty much across the board. This appears to be the perfect game to get Worley on track and feeling good about himself.

Special teams and turnovers observations. Nothing much to see here, either.

Players to Watch

Offensive Observations. That chart is busting at the seams, but not particularly with quality. Sophomore QB Logan Kilgore is ranked 26th in the nation in total offense, and his primary target appears to be senior WR Malcolm Beyah. He spreads it around pretty well, though. This is the game where Tennessee fans get frustrated with their defense, but if it happens it may be just because MTSU actually has a good passing attack, and we have problems in the secondary that have mostly been masked except for a big play here and there. Justin Wilcox may roll out an entirely new strategy this week, though, so we'll see.

Defense. Freshman LB Leighton Gasque is the producer on defense, getting pressure in the backfield. Other than that, though, there doesn't appear to be any real concern.

Special teams. Eh.

Head to Head Comparisons

			Comps	Result Against Comps	Prediction
UT rush v. MTSU rush defense	82.63 (#119)	218.00 (#112)	Buffalo ( 200.89) (#102)	199	200
UT pass v. MTSU pass defense	247.25 (#45)	222.29 (#60)	Buffalo ( 200.33) (#33)	342	200
MTSU rush v. UT rush defense	163.63 (#69)	172.86 (#47)	Georgia ( 165.25) (#52)	139	140
MTSU pass v. UT pass defense	193.50 (#24)	289.57 (#21)	Georgia ( 238.75) (#54)	227	250
UT scoring offense v. MTSU scoring defense	22.38 (#96)	34.29 (#107)	Buffalo ( 30.11) (#84)	41	31
MTSU scoring offense v. UT scoring defense	23.88 (#46)	29.86 (#51)	South Carolina (30.13) (#49)	14	17

As always, these are informed guesses rather than mathematical calculations, and the general analytical framework is this: We are averaging X in a certain category. The opponent averages Y against that, which is most closely comparable to some identified previous opponent, against whom we did Z. All of that leads to an informed guess labeled as Prediction. The less data you have, the more sketchy the guess, and the guesses range from ALL CAPS SKETCHY WITH EXCLAMATION POINTS at the beginning of the season to merely lower case sketchy for the last game.

If it wasn't for MTSU's passing game, this wouldn't even be close, I don't think. Even with that, though, I'm guessing it should be a comfortable win for the Vols.

Sketchy Conclusions

• The respective schedules of Tennessee and MTSU make statistical comparisons problematic. The Blue Raiders have compiled theirs against a poor slate with a good team or two while the Vols have built their resume against the mirror image of that.
• Believe it or not, MTSU's passing attack may be the best that the Vols have faced all season. According to the national rankings, the closest comparison is Georgia, who ranks 54th to the Blue Raiders' 21st. At least Tennessee's not vulnerable there. Gulp. And at least we haven't lost yet another guy back there. Big Gulp.
• MTSU's defense is terrrible and provides a good game for Justin Worley to shake off last week and start his ascent to Volunteer stardom.

Predictions

• Tennessee 31, MTSU 17.