Selection Sunday Preview: How High Could Tennessee Climb?
by Joel Hollingsworth on Mar 11, 2011 12:00 PM EST
in Tennessee Volunteer Basketball
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The Tennessee Volunteers' win over the Arkansas Razorbacks last night likely put all of that nasty bubble talk to bed for the season. The question for Bruce Pearl and the Vols now is one of seeding.
According to the 2011 Bracket Project Matrix, most bracketologists are predicting somewhere between 7-12, with the composite being the last-listed 9. There are two sites that don't seed the Vols at all. One is RealTimeRPI, whose entire above-the-fold area is overwhelmed by a giant AdSense ad and which lists Tennessee as a "Dropout this week." The time stamp is "2011-03-10 10::50," which could be last night soon after our game but before the rest of the day's games had ended but is more likely yesterday morning. The other is a site called Sports Measures, which was last updated on 3/7/11.
The Matrix has Florida as the first SEC team in with a 3 seed. Next is Kentucky with a 4, Vanderbilt with a 6, and Georgia with a 10, making it five SEC teams. Alabama is one of the First Four Out.
Regions and opponent, like the seeds, are all over the place, and it's changing daily now. SBNation's Chris Dobbertean had Tennessee as a 9 against 8 seed George Mason in Tulsa with 1 seed Kansas waiting yesterday. Today, he has UT as an 8 against 9 seed Gonzaga in Cleveland (hello, Cleveland! #mandatoryspinaltapjoke) with 1 seed Ohio State waiting.
ESPN's Joe Lunardi yesterday had Tennessee as a 10 against 7 seed UNLV, also in Tulsa, with 2 seed Texas waiting. Today? 10 (thanks, Joe!) against 7 seed Temple in Charlotte with 2 seed Duke looming.
CBSSports' Jerry Palm's bracket has me very confused, but if I'm reading it correctly, it had Tennessee as a 10 against 7 seed Old Dominion with 2 seed Syracuse waiting in the weeds yesterday. Today, we're a 10 (nobody loves Arkansas) against 7 seed Arizona in a bracket with 2 seed Purdue.
Tennessee's resume is still strong. According to Live-RPI.com, the Vols are currently at RPI 30. They have wins over Pitt (RPI 10), Vanderbilt (RPI 27), Memphis (RPI 33), Villanova (RPI 37), Georgia (RPI 39), Missouri State (RPI 40), VCU (RPI 50), and Belmont, who is out of the top 50 (53), but is a 33-win team that nearly doubled the score of its opponent in the Atlantic Sun Tournament. This, plus all of the good teams UT's played but not beaten, all puts the Vols second in the nation in strength of schedule.
So how much can the Vols improve with a solid run through the SECT? They'll have a chance to get the attention of folks like Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm by playing RPI 9 Florida tonight. If they win, and assuming Vanderbilt gets by Mississippi State, UT would play Vandy (RPI 27, as noted above) tomorrow. Best case, the Vols beat Vandy and advance to play Kentucky (RIP (typo, but I like it) 11) on Sunday. If they have the good fortune of winning out, they'll likely have added another three wins against RPI top 50 teams.
Yes, we have to concede that that's unlikely to happen. But just for fun, how many seeds do you think one can you buy with three more RPI top 50 wins?
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Six would be the goal
and, if we’ve got a committee that really, really values quality wins, if we win the SEC Tournament I think a 5 is still within reason – we’d be 22-13 with a resume very similar to St. John’s, who Dobbertean currently has as a 5.
But I’d take six with a smile.
I don't know how much weight is put on conference tournaments
But winning the thing would have to bring us to 7 at least, and 6 is the best we could reasonably hope for. I’d love to get out of that 8/9 matchup, but it’s not happening with just a win over Florida. We need to be playing on Sunday. At least. But first, let’s beat Florida. K?
by Incipient_Senescence on Mar 11, 2011 12:37 PM EST reply actions
I agree
I think a 5 is out of reach. But to be a 6 seed would be phenomenal.
by golfballs03 on Mar 11, 2011 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
Take whatever you think is the best seed we could attain...
then subtract two from it, because the committee traditionally gives TN the shaft, and the Pearl stuff isn’t going to help. Not fair, but since when is life fair?
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
and we've been paying for it ever since
Hopefully that run last year has ended all that.
by Incipient_Senescence on Mar 11, 2011 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
yeah...
What I.S. said.
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
Lunard's math doesn't make sense
he has 3 teams highlighted as having odds 85 percent or better: Washington, Tennessee and BUTLER. I’m pretty sure that Butler just won their conference tournament…. so wouldn’t that make their odds at 100%?
Also, Tennessee actually moved down one spot on his S-curve from yesterday. So we are no more likely of making the tournament even after beating Arkansas. I find that strange.
I don't find the latter point strange at all
Beating Arkansas is not much different than not playing at all. Losing to Arkansas, on the other hand, might’ve put us in hot water.
by Incipient_Senescence on Mar 11, 2011 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
eh...
the win moved us up ~5 spots in the RPI… beating a top 150 RPI team is certainly better than not playing
beating anybody is better than not playing
Except maybe LSU. Just don’t expect it to move you around relative to the field. That’s where I was coming from. Losing will move you down. Beating a good team will move you up. Not playing and beating a bad team won’t move you much.
by Incipient_Senescence on Mar 11, 2011 2:10 PM EST up reply actions
beating Arkansas
has to increase our chances of getting in the tournament. Because the chance of losing to them was eliminated.
this is definitely true
However, if the bracket is done as if the season ended today, there may not be much change in our chances, because the bracket done as if the season ended before yesterday’s game would not have included a loss to Arkansas. If the bracket includes probabilities of future results, then there should be an improvement.
by Incipient_Senescence on Mar 11, 2011 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
Do you hear that? No?
It’s the sound of UGA choking.
______________________________________________
That's (333333jorkland)^2 and $$$$$$$$immons to you, chump.
Bama has turned into a pretty decent little team
Didn’t watch the game though.
by Incipient_Senescence on Mar 11, 2011 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
Tough, tough call
I’d lean towards Alabama being in and Georgia being out, but they could both be in.
by Incipient_Senescence on Mar 11, 2011 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
Dear god...
Auburn just won the Fulmer Cup…
4 players charged with
5 counts Class A Felony armed robbery
1 count felony burglary
1 count felony theft of property
28 points per player x 4 =
112 points, and that’s before any bonus points
Quadruple Word Score!
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
I guess it would be better for UK to win over Ole Miss....
but Ole Miss winning would be fun and exciting!
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
also
Were we to win tonight and Ole Miss to win, tickets for the Saturday games would be dirt cheap.
by Incipient_Senescence on Mar 11, 2011 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
hmmmm....
It’s only a 3.5 hour drive for me…..
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
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