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What do the Vols look like without Scotty Hopson and Tobias Harris?

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From day one, Cuonzo Martin's immediate success depended on how many of Scotty Hopson, Tobias Harris, Chris Jones, and Kevin Ware he could get to wear orange next season.  Go 4-4, and the Vols could go right back to their 2010, pre-Pearl-drama form.  Go 0-4, and you're officially rebuilding.  And any one would've made a difference.

But with Kevin Ware bouncing around in mid-major land and surrounded by recruiting scandals, Chris Jones headed to junior college, and Scotty and Tobias off to the NBA, the Tennessee Basketball program will be forced to adjust its expectations for at least one season, and probably more.

I don't think it's fair to blame Cuonzo for any of this - Ware looks like he was never worth the trouble, Jones is responsible for his own grades, Tobias appears to have made the right decision and Scotty appears to have made the only decision he's been planning on making for the last year.  But even if most agree not to blame Martin right now, if/when the 2011-12 season goes differently than the last six, you have to wonder how much patience the Vol Basketball fanbase will have.

But, we have to move forward.  Pending any additional late signees, the Vols will have seven returning scholarship players and three freshmen.  If Renaldo Woolridge is granted a redshirt for last season, Cameron Tatum will be the Vols' only senior.  It goes without saying that Martin has to do a good job with the class of 2012 in recruiting.  But it's also true that the future of Tennessee Basketball will start with the underclassmen on the current roster.

So without our two best players and any highly-touted freshmen, what will the Vols look like in Cuonzo's first season?  Here are a few key questions, for next year and beyond...as always, we welcome your thoughts on these as well...

Is Trae Golden the longterm answer at point guard?

The sophomore-to-be may not be a natural point guard, but he did have a 2.16 assist/turnover ratio as Melvin Goins' backup last season.  If Cuonzo Martin trusts Golden, he could run the show for the next three years; the Vols haven't had any longterm stability at point guard since C.J. Watson graduated in 2006.  Wes Washpun's signing suggests Skylar McBee may not be an option at the one again, which is probably for the best.

I didn't watch enough Missouri State Basketball to know this for sure, but statistically speaking Martin's teams made assists everyone's business, not just the point guard's.  And we know he'll emphasize not turning the ball over.  So can Trae Golden play that role well enough in Cuonzo's system, or will the Vols make point guard a primary emphasis in the next recruiting class (if Chris Jones never makes his way to campus)?

Star-divide

Does this team have a primary scorer?

This, of course, factors in to Golden's assist numbers.

Cameron Tatum has shown flashes of greatness and frustration in his career.  There was a time when he was outplaying J.P. Prince and everyone thought he should get more minutes.  And there was a more recent time when he suddenly couldn't throw it in the ocean and failed to become a third scoring option, let alone the primary one.  Though he is the team's leading returning scorer, there are also plenty of reasons to question his ability to carry that burden every night.

If defense is the emphasis, the Vols could ugly it up real good and hope to win games in the 50s.  If that's the case it's less important for one player to excel on the offensive end, but more important for everyone to contribute.  Either way, Tennessee is clearly going to have to have more points from Skylar McBee, Trae Golden, or their freshman equivalents.

Can Kenny Hall and/or Jordan McRae suddenly arrive?

They are the Vols' two most talented young players, and neither has seen the floor enough for us to make any real judgment on them.  Hall will have to play, and play a bunch of minutes (if the Vols don't sign another big man), so he'll certainly have an opportunity to play to his potential.  McRae couldn't find the floor this year, in part because of his defense - which Martin will also stress - but right now, if you were projecting a starting five, he'd probably be in it.  Even more than Hall, we have no idea what this kid can do, and it's exceptionally unfair to say things like, "Maybe he could be the primary scorer!"  So let's just say that any good we get from our redshirt freshman would be greatly appreciated.  Hall and McRae, to me, are the difference between the sort of rebuilding year where the Vols just get hammered, and the sort of rebuilding year where the Vols can still compete.

What becomes of Swiperboy?

He'll play, for sure.  But if the Vols don't bring in another body, he'll almost certainly be stuck playing the four, and that hasn't worked out well in the past.

We've seen much more of Woolridge than we have of Hall and McRae.  The Vols don't beat Kansas without him.  But he's a guy that has to pick a lane:  is he a shooter?  (probably not)  Is he going to post up on the block at the four?  Does he have enough offensive skill to create his own shot?

Everybody is dying to love Woolridge for something other than his music and his personality.  He'll get a chance to earn that love this season one way or another, I'm just not exactly sure what it's going to look like.

Can Jeronne Maymon stop fouling so much?

This is not a laughing matter.

Will these Vols buy in to Cuonzo?

Despite the lowered expectations that none of these guys came here to play for and the new coaching staff, I think these Vols will rely on so many new faces who couldn't, for whatever reason, find the floor under Pearl, that Cuonzo won't have a problem getting his guys to play hard.  And because the Vols are so young, you don't have to worry about a bunch of seniors quitting on the new coach.

I think Martin's Vols will play with heart and effort that we can and will appreciate.  And we should know how much fun it is to cheer for the underdog; against this schedule, that'll happen more often than not.

As fans, we've just experienced Derek Dooley's first team forcing us to redefine success - not forever, just as a first step in a process - and still found a way to be proud of that team, enjoy the wins they were able to accomplish, and view them as a good first step for Dooley's larger work.  The same dynamic will be at work here, only more difficult because Cuonzo Martin replaced Bruce Pearl, not Lane Kiffin.  But for our new basketball coach and his first team, I still think the NIT is a great goal.  Whatever they become, it'll be something new...and even without Scotty and Tobias, it can still become a good foundation for the future that Cuonzo Martin wants to build.

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Can Jeronne Maymon stop fouling so much?

How about can Kenny Hall stop fouling so much? I think he averaged a foul every 17 seconds or so. As you said, he’ll have to play serious minutes, and that’s tough in foul trouble.

There are still a lot of guys on our roster who were expected to be good out of high school, but none of them did a lot under Pearl. And unless all of them have a miraculous turnaround under CCM, this is going to be a long, long season. It’s really important that the fan base have patience. And the 2012 recruiting class is the most important in recent memory. There are at least two well respected big men in state, and we need them.

by Incipient_Senescence on May 8, 2011 1:57 PM EDT reply actions  

Scrolled down just to comment on Hall and found this

Agree with Incip up there. Hall is the biggest whistle magnet I have ever seen in 40 years of watching UT BB. He’s not a legitimate starter if this continues

by s1216 on May 8, 2011 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like to think I'm a fairly realistic fan

I have my bouts of unfounded optimism as well as my moments of abject pessimism, but I try to take an even-keeled approach.

When I step back and try to look at our situation objectively…I just don’t see how next year could be anything other than a tremendous struggle. Based on performance to date, I think it’s unlikely that we can expect to get 80 productive minutes out of Hall, Maymon, and Swipa at the 4/5 positions. You can hide those things if you can get hot from outside or have guys who can constantly get to the bucket…but I’m not sure we have those things, either. We’ve seen most of these players and I doubt we’re going to get huge jumps in productivity from everybody.

I could certainly be wrong (and would love for that to be the case). I didn’t think we’d accomplish anything in ‘05-’06, and that turned out to be a tremendous ride. However, I think we’d all do best to temper our expectations, applaud the heart and effort these guys put forth, and use this season as a foundation for the future.

by VolnVA on May 8, 2011 3:57 PM EDT reply actions  

Looks like we'll have a two-deep of something like:

Golden/Washpun
McRae/McBee[/Chievous]
Tatum/Richardson
Maymon/Woolridge
Hall/Hallagain

by Incipient_Senescence on May 8, 2011 5:11 PM EDT reply actions  

Remember when Dooley came in - light on talent, 6-6 was considered a very good year?

That should be Vols basketball next year.

With no size, I don’t think we’ll see ugly games in the 50’s. Low 70s has been Zo’s M.O. at MO State. I’d bet he has to pressure a bit more this year because we are guard heavy and no inside presence at all.

I think the Vol fans are understanding. Especially, if we feel like things are headed in the right direction with the character of the coach and the improving quality of what’s on the court (or that the guy is doing the best that he can with what he’s got).

Case in point on expectations… Almost all of us were OK with 6-7 last year and a bowl in football. Not so much with a first round exit from the NCAA that we shouldn’t have been playing in anyway. The difference? We got all we could out of the football team (and a decent break with the clock results in 7-6 or 8-5). We left a lot on the table with the basketball talent.

Hey, bad guys. Look up in the sky. See the UAV? Nope? We see you. "Don't laze me, bro'!"

by memphispete on May 8, 2011 7:49 PM EDT reply actions  

I really, really wish

There was a way to show my displeasure at Emperor Palpatine Chancellor Cheek that wouldn’t catch Cuonzo Martin as collateral damage.

by danmarcel on May 8, 2011 9:04 PM EDT reply actions  

At this point, the results of the hearing are moot

insofar as it regards my opinion of the leadership at UT.

by danmarcel on May 8, 2011 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

alright, fair enough

I’m not really sure what drives the anti-Cheek stuff (I totally understand the anti-Hamilton), so I’ll stand aside.

by Incipient_Senescence on May 9, 2011 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

it still is anti-Hamilton

they want someone to blame for him still being here.

by golfballs03 on May 9, 2011 8:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

ah

well, to that I say that firing him at any time in the last two months would’ve been idiotic. So. . . blame circumstances.

by Incipient_Senescence on May 9, 2011 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

next it will be

blaming whoever is above Cheek for him still being here. I wonder where it will stop.

by golfballs03 on May 9, 2011 8:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

He did a nice job with that first group of shooters (Lofton, JuJuan) who were sophomores when he came in

And Chism and Prince (perhaps even Williams, to a lesser degree) were huge by the time they graduated, but we were also quite frustrated at how slowly they developed. So there’s definitely room for improvement on this score.

by Incipient_Senescence on May 9, 2011 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

Pearl was a great motivator and tactician...

he could take kids’ strengths and get the most out of them…

but I don’t think some players progressed like they should have. It will be interesting to see how players like Hall and Woolridge progress under Martin.

by golfballs03 on May 9, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

agreed

the ones I pointed out were really the exceptions, and even Chism and Prince were slow exceptions.

by Incipient_Senescence on May 9, 2011 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

I was one of the seemingly few fans who liked Kevin O’Neil’s tenure at UT. He left the cupboard stocked fairly well when he left. I think we will see a similar style of play the first few years of CuonzoBall. Low scoring affairs with an emphasis on defense creating offense. Swiper looks like the best player on the team from a purely body-type angle. I hope he puts every effort into maximizing his potential.

by pound the rock on May 9, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Great Unknown

Coach Martin did a great job turning the players at his previous stop into winners. He has a track record leading me to believe he can do the same at UT.

There are going to be some major growing pains while the coaches get a feel for each player’s strengths and weaknesses. UT will trot out a lineup that should be smaller, on average, than most teams they face. I watched quite a few of Butler’s games this past year, and their offensive and defensive philosophies would fit UT’s current roster well. Butler is smaller than most of their opponents, and were frequently out-rebounded. Butler countered this by running an extremely efficient offense predicated on limiting their turnovers and using ball screens to take very good shots. I hope UT can emulate this strategy.

If Martin can convince the kids to play aggressive on-ball defense, perhaps UT can have success against the more talented teams they will face. Golden is a much better shooter than he showed last season, and he and McRae could grow into a potent 1-2 punch from the PG and SG positions. It will be a long season, but I have optimism that Martin can get these players to buy into his teaching and shock a few opponents along the way.

by pound the rock on May 9, 2011 2:51 PM EDT reply actions  

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