#OPPORTUNITYISNOWHERE: Tracking Tennessee Football's Opportunity for Improvement in 2011

by Joel Hollingsworth on Aug 31, 2011 8:01 AM EDT in Tennessee Volunteer Football

A few weeks into the season, we'll begin using this space and time to do a statsy preview of the upcoming game. Those things generally travel the continuum from completely unreliable early in the season to something approaching a decent guess by the time all of the games have been played. Before the season is played and based on last year's stats, it's totally not worth it, and that's true particularly where the opponents' resumes are compiled in two different college football subdivisions.

So instead, I thought I'd update our Monitoring Tennessee's Improvement series we did last year and re-brand it #opportunityisnowhere.

Last season, the things UT did well (as defined as those things in which it ranked as one of the nation's 30 best teams) mostly trended upward, and the team finished the season doing okay to fine in the following categories.

Categories In Which Tennessee Was In The Top Quarter in 2010
Category	2010
Kickoff Return Yardage Defense	9
Passes Intercepted	19
Turnovers Gained	23
Fewest Yards Penalized Per Game	30
Pass Efficiency Defense	30
Passing Offense	30

Hey, look. We've become KICKOFF RETURN YARDAGE DEFENSE-U! That stat is mystifying, especially in light of the fact that the kicker couldn't get the ball into the end zone and pretty much just kicked to like the 15. Am I remembering that right?

Anyway, the team was also pretty good at generating interceptions (which is also probably factored in to turnovers gained), and just on the cusp of being okay at fewest yards penalized, pass efficiency defense, and passing offense. I'm milking the fewest yards penalized stat for every last ounce of solace it can provide, hoping that it means our guys are disciplined guys who just weren't all that experienced in 2010. Disciplined and more experienced should mean good things, right?

So how many of those Things We Did Well were the result of players who are no longer here? Here's the chart of Tennessee players who ranked in the top 30 of the nation last year. You don't need a cup of coffee; it's a short list.

Player	Ranking	Stat
Janzen Jackson	22nd	Interceptions
Prentiss Waggner	23rd	Fumbles Recovered

Jackson's gone, of course, but P-Swag is still here, so woo for him. As we all know, the key questions for the passing game this year are whether Bray can reduce the interceptions and whether Justin Hunter and Da'Rick Rogers can become (or can improve on) Denarius Moore and Gerald Jones, who each barely missed the top quarter in a couple of receiving categories for 2010. Stay tuned on that.

#OPPORTUNITYISNOWHERE

So that's pretty much it for Things Tennessee Did Well in 2010. But that just means that wehavemoreopportunitythanmost, right? The Vols were mostly just lost in the middle of the stat categories last season, and they climbed their way out of the basement in several of them as the season progressed. Still, they finished in the bottom quarter in several categories, and so these things head up the euphemistic Opportunity List:

Categories In Which Tennessee Was In The Bottom Quarter In 2010
Category	2010
Pass Sacks Allowed	115
Tackles for Loss Allowed	113
Punt Returns	109
Rushing Offense	105
Red Zone Efficiency	104
Offense Fourth Down Efficiency	96
First Downs	92
Time of Possession	90

With a few notable exceptions (i.e., punt returns, which is mostly a matter of simply finding someone who will catch the ball and not drop it), most of that is offensive line stuff, which is actually good news, I think, and not just because we're reading "nowhere" as "now here." Tennessee's offensive line was about as green as they come last year, and although that means they're still young this year, they played a lot last year and are therefore gaining quickly on the rest of nation in terms of actual experience. Experience tends to graduate, and wedon'treallyhavethatproblem. Couple that with that postive fewest yards penalized stat above, and we should really see some improvement in most of those categories.

For what it's worth, the Vols barely missed the cut on interceptions -- recording 15 and placing 88th in the nation -- and on offensive third-down efficiency, in which they also finished 88th. So watch those categories as well.

So what do y'all think? In what area do the Vols have the best chance of becoming among the top teams in the nation? What areas are you most concerned about improving?

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so yeah, best work on O-line and punt returns

I have faith that the former will improve. We’ll see about the latter.

Also, the kickoff return yardage makes perfect sense because we kicked it to the 15. Kick it to the 15, let ’em return to the 28, and your return yardage is 13. Kick it to the 5, let ’em return to the 25, and your return yardage is 20.

Also, keep hawkin’, Swag

Heel for school, Vol for life!

Bolts, Preds, Canes (childhood team, home state team, hometown team). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity!

by Incipient_Senescence on Aug 31, 2011 8:09 AM EDT reply actions

big leap from last year

I expect us to be at least middle of the pack in all categories with possible top quartile in sacks against, rushing, sacks allowed, 3rd downs, 4th downs, time of possession.

I think we’ll still give up some big plays on D and hopefully tighten up run defense, but our better but still lean quality depth on D makes me nervous, especially in tough, physical games where our D is on the field a lot.

I’m not sure how efficient our passing game will be, but I think what we will lack in efficiency we’ll somewhat make up in big plays. I think it will be feast or famine with Bray this year as he still won’t have total grasp of progressions and check downs and will try to fit balls in places they don’t belong. But that big play threat should cause safeties to back out a bit which should loosen up the run game.

by phil g on Aug 31, 2011 10:30 AM EDT reply actions

I'm not completely sold on Erik Russell and think a RB coach would be better ...

But that’s a drastic improvement on special teams considering how awful we’ve been in coverage and returns in the past.

by Brad Shepard on Aug 31, 2011 11:38 AM EDT reply actions

Isn't Cheney the RB coach?

I thought Cheney is the RB coach. I think RB is relatively the easiest position to coach. RB is learning how to run behind the blocking schemes, pass blocking and release routes, other than that the running part is largely instinctive. Catching skills can be taught by the WR coach, running schemes by the run game coordinator and blocking schemes by the o-line coach. With the limitations and trade-offs required on coaching staffs, I’ll gladly trade mediocre coaching of RB position with excellent coaching of special teams. I’m sick to death of our embarrassing decline in special teams play over the past several years.

by phil g on Sep 1, 2011 6:53 AM EDT up reply actions