Tennessee-Buffalo Game Preview

A weekly look at our upcoming opponent's recent history, with animated drive charts, links to SB Nation game pages, and statistical comparisons. Caveats.

Sketchy Conclusions

• Buffalo has lost three of four games already in the MAC.
• Just according to the numbers and ignoring everything else, the Bulls appear to be a little worse than average on offense and a little better than average on defense. The offense seems well-balanced, and the defense appears able to do some damage behind the line of scrimmage.
• Their passing attack is statistically sandwiched right between Florida's and Cincinnati's, so expect about the same result (a bit over 200 yards). They do have trouble converting yards into points, however.

Predictions

• Tennessee 38, Buffalo 13.

Schedule and Animated Drive Charts

Hoo, boy. That's not a very impressive resume. Let's not add to the Bulls' win column, mmkay?

We're missing drive chart daa for this week, so here's a look at Buffalo's drive chart against Ball State:

Excitement! Heartbreak! College football.

National Unit Rankings

Offensive observations. Well, they don't score and can't pass, and they do nothing better than average. We have our issues, too, you know, so I'm not insulting. Just saying.

Defensive observations. That's a pretty good pass defense, and with the exception of pass efficiency defense and rushing defense, they're better than average at most things on this side of the ball. Tackles for loss is a bit troubling, because when we've run the ball so far this season, we're not likely to gain many yards anyway. Hopefully, that will change this weekend.

Special teams and turnovers observations. Mmm. A whole bunch of "eh" there.

Players to Watch

Offensive Observations. That's actually a pretty well-balanced attack. Senior QB Chazz Anderson ranks nationally in passing efficiency and total offense, and adds a few yards on the ground to boot. Running back Branden Oliver ranks well nationally and averages over 100 yards per game. And Buffalo has two receivers -- Marcus Rivers and Alex Neutz -- who rank in the top 60 nationally. So . . . four guys and a good deal of balance between the four. Potency may be another question entirely, but balance!

Defense. Watch out for sophomore linebacker Khalil Mack, who shows up in every category up there. They also have two other guys -- Colby Way and Gordon DuBois (whose name makes it sound like he should be dealing in stocks instead of sacks) -- who are all up in your backfield. After that, Lee Skinner and Fred Branch are cleaning up the rest of the mess.

Special teams. Not too bad on punting and punt returns, but like I said before, there's a whole lotta "eh" in there, too.

Head to Head Comparisons

			Comps	Result Against Comps	Prediction
UT rush v. Buffalo rush defense	81.67 (#112)	166 (#79)	Cincinnati (89.25) (#22)	126	145
UT pass v. Buffalo pass defense	334.67 (#10)	184.25 (#27)	Florida (175.25) (#20)	288	280
Buffalo rush v. UT rush defense	137 (#59)	148.75 (#61)	Cincinnati (239.25) (#16)	166	110
Buffalo pass v. UT pass defense	226 (#69)	205.50 (#77)	Florida/Cincinnati (202.75/211.25) (#79/74)	213/230	220
UT scoring offense v. Buffalo scoring defense	36.67 (#30)	21.75 (#45)	Cincinnati (20.75) (#39)	45	38
Buffalo scoring offense v. UT scoring defense	24 (#62)	19.75 (#102)	Florida (40.25) (#15)	33	13

As always, these are informed guesses rather than mathematical calculations, and the general analytical framework is this: We are averaging X in a certain category. The opponent averages Y against that, which is most closely comparable to some identified previous opponent, against whom we did Z. All of that leads to an informed guess labeled as Prediction. The less data you have, the more sketchy the guess, and the guesses range from ALL CAPS SKETCHY WITH EXCLAMATION POINTS at the beginning of the season to merely lower case sketchy for the last game.

This week's example: On average, we're holding passing attacks to 226 yards per game. Buffalo is getting 205.50 yards per game through the air, which puts them right smack dab in the middle of former opponents Florida and Cincinnati, whom we held to 213 and 230 yards respectively. So, according to the limited data anyway, Buffalo's passing attack is about the same as Florida's and Cincinnati's, so expect them to do about as well and come away with about 220 yards.

It seems that Buffalo is worse at scoring than it is at moving the ball. Still, those Cincinnati numbers have to be discounted because of the Justin Hunter injury. In all, though, this should be a fairly comfortable win for the Vols. I hope.

Sketchy Conclusions

• Buffalo has lost three of four games already in the MAC.
• Just according to the numbers and ignoring everything else, the Bulls appear to be a little worse than average on offense and a little better than average on defense. The offense seems well-balanced, and the defense appears able to do some damage behind the line of scrimmage.
• Their passing attack is statistically sandwiched right between Florida's and Cincinnati's, so expect about the same result (a bit over 200 yards). They do have trouble converting yards into points, however.

Predictions

• Tennessee 38, Buffalo 13.