At this stage of the game, I give the Vols a slight chance (20 percent) to come on and make the...

At this stage of the game, I give the Vols a slight chance (20 percent) to come on and make the NCAA tournament and a 50-50 chance at being invited to the Postseason NIT field.

BallerVols picks: A win over Georgia | Ask Griff | GoVolsXtra.com
Mike Griffith's opinion of the Tennessee basketball team is improving. If I'm reading it right, his latest predictions give the Vols 15 wins plus 5 50/50 games, good enough for a 50% shot at the NIT and a 20% shot at the big T.

4 months ago Joel Hollingsworth 8 comments 0 recs |

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His picks...

look pretty spot on to me.

"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti

by sddbaker on Jan 16, 2012 2:59 PM EST reply actions

I'm not sure how exactly Georgia (away) is a win but Carolina (away) is 50/50

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 16, 2012 3:07 PM EST reply actions

Let's all slow our roll a tad, Griff

I_S and I already noted on Saturday that Wednesday’s game against UGA, a “lesser” team following on the heels of 3 solid games against top 15 competition, is the kind of game a young team might not show up for. We can only afford to take them all one at a time.

Now…if I try to project, I’m just as bad at failing to slow my roll as everyone else. Getting to 20 wins would imply some solid wins, but we also have some really, really bad losses. In that scenario, it would depend on the strength of the bubble. However, as I said…we’re getting way, way ahead of ourselves. Let’s take it one game at a time and try to enjoy the ride.

I like Tennessee and Vanderbilt. There aren't many like me, and they're probably better off for it.

by VolnVA on Jan 16, 2012 3:31 PM EST reply actions

right now, we only have two bad (RPI 100+) losses

but Pittsburgh and Charleston are both in the 90s, so they’re in danger of turning into bad losses.

But still, just getting to 18 wins in the regular season would mean closing 10-4 against a schedule that includes Kentucky (Rupp), Florida (away), Vandy (away), Vandy (home), UConn (home), Alabama (away). Which is to say, 2-4 against that set and then 8-0 against Georgia (twice), Carolina (twice), LSU (away), Ole Miss (home), Arkansas (home), and Auburn (home).

Yeah, that might get us in the tournament if we did that and then won two SECT games, but the chances of that happening right now? I’d say rather less than 20%. Let’s just beat Georgia. Alright? Please.

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 16, 2012 3:38 PM EST up reply actions

I'm happy to cosign pretty much all of this

The team has 8 wins right now…let’s beat UGA to get to 9.

I like Tennessee and Vanderbilt. There aren't many like me, and they're probably better off for it.

by VolnVA on Jan 16, 2012 4:34 PM EST up reply actions

While we only have two bad losses, how many good wins do we have? Um, Florida, period.

I know I_S thinks I am overly pessimistic but losing close against good teams just makes us feel encouraged for the future. It does nothing for the tourney bids.

This talk of Tennessee making the NCAAs with one quality win (Fla #12) a kenpom/RPI 100+ and an 8-9 record is just silly.

(FYI, the next best win is ETSU at #132 on the kenpom scale)

Now, next year….

We're watching when you are not. Protecting against another 9-11.

by memphispete on Jan 16, 2012 5:25 PM EST reply actions

the premise is could we make the tourney if we went 10-4 from here on out (12-5 with SECT included)

doing so would give us more good wins. And yes, we probably could, provided teams we beat (like Florida) didn’t tank, allowing us to keep our quality win. But the chances of actually going 10-4 from here on our are just not even worth talking about right now. We don’t have a single road win this season. We have a road game on Wednesday. Let’s actually win that before talking about running off a winning streak that gets us into the tournament.

If we beat both Georgia and UConn, I’ll be okay with “what will it take” discussion. We’ll have a road win and a second home win over a top 25 team. Until then, let’s just focus on doing something we haven’t done this year—we have a great opportunity to steal a road win on Wednesday night, and we need to take it.

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 16, 2012 5:54 PM EST up reply actions

It's not that silly...

If we did make it to 18 wins, then we’d have some pretty big scalps and our RPI is destined to improve significantly.

Will we be good enough to finish 10-4? I doubt it… but it’s not out of the realm of real possibility if Stokes is a difference maker and we’re really the team we’ve seen over the last 3 games.

by Caban on Jan 16, 2012 6:42 PM EST up reply actions