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The Sudden Transformation of Tennessee Basketball

Jarnell Stokes has many great qualities. But my favorite among the early returns is the way he grins like a ten year old trying not to grin almost every time he scores.

Seriously, watch the highlights from Saturday's win over UConn. Stokes looks all business as usual after his first two baskets, but once he starts taking over, he can't help himself. It's like he can't believe this is all really happening this fast. It's okay, we can't believe it either. You want to say act like you've been there before...but he hasn't. And neither have we.

We've won before, sure - the last six years will attest to that. But the way these wins are coming is completely new. It's what we heard and hoped we would get from Cuonzo Martin...but this soon against these teams? After the month of December we had around here? Almost all of us were ready to chalk this year up to the reset button and look forward to 2013. In our poll on January 6 - just seventeen days ago - the leading prediction for Tennessee's SEC record was "4-12 or worse". If I had made 3-13 an option, it might have been even darker. And hey, I ranked them 11th out of 12 in the same post, the exact same spot the media put them in during the preseason. The Vols looked the part.

In the last seventeen days, Tennessee is just 2-3. But it looks - and boy, does it feel - like everything has changed.

Star-divide

Back in Maui, the Vols almost beat Memphis playing a version of the Bruce Pearl basketball they knew (mandatory note: Pearl remains the most successful coach in the history of the program. This is not a condemnation of his coaching style. You can love Bruce Pearl and Cuonzo Martin. I promise. You can.) Jeronne Maymon almost beat them by himself as the game raced into the 90s in double overtime. Memphis shot 51.4% from the floor that day, enough to beat the Vols by a deuce. But it gave us hope that maybe the Vols could keep pace playing the same old basketball: up tempo, lots of threes and athletes, little discipline.

By the time the Memphis rematch rolled around, the Vols were 7-6 with losses to Oakland, Charleston, and Austin Peay. And in the second half on Beale Street, Memphis excelled at the Bruce Pearl brand of basketball, and Tennessee was left in the dust. The Tigers didn't even shoot as well in the rematch - 47.4% - but it was more than enough, because on the other end of the floor the Vols went 5 of 21 from the arc and turned the ball over 15 times. Memphis turned it over 16 times...and still won by 18.

You rarely see the switch truly flip in sports. We talk about it all the time because we want to believe it can happen, but it's an illusion more often than not. You may notice a trend developing as it happens, or see a young team naturally mature and progress, but it's very rare to see a team that was, in its core identity, one way one day and completely different the next.

So it is with great appreciation and admiration that I say that whatever happened between Memphis and Florida absolutely flipped the switch for this team, and changed the course of the season and the early stages of the Cuonzo Martin era.

Here are Tennessee's defensive numbers:

  • First 14 games: 69.5 ppg allowed, 352 of 801 FG (43.9%), 83 of 224 3PT (37.0%), 11.7 turnovers per game
  • Last 5 games: 59.4 ppg allowed, 105 of 273 FG (38.4%), 22 of 80 3PT (27.5%), 12.8 turnovers per game
Again, remember who we've played: four ranked teams plus a road trip to Athens. And suddenly, the Vols are giving up ten fewer points per game, forcing teams to shoot under 40% from the floor and under 30% from the arc. And as you can see, we're not doing it with BruceBall, with pressure and a ton of turnovers. We're doing it with hard, physical, #playhard man-to-man defense.

Sure, they changed the starting lineup. And yes, Jarnell Stokes is a big part of this story. But remember, it started without Stokes, who did not play in the win against Florida and the close loss in Starkville, and probably has more defensive breakdowns than anyone on the team right now due to simple inexperience.

The biggest difference appears to be belief. Somewhere between Memphis and Florida, the Vols bought what Cuonzo Martin has been selling all along. And the returns have been immediate. Before the Gators, the Vols didn't embrace defense. Now, it's their total identity.

So while all of us are grinning right alongside Jarnell and can't believe how good this kid is right away, it's even better that Stokes remains the secondary story. The primary story is, when your team plays us, you'll spend most of the game wondering why you suck so much on offense today. As danmarcel pointed out in our postgame thread, it's not you, it's us.

Tennessee has been a fan of the close game all year. But now that we've seen it in January, against this gauntlet, we can continue to fully believe that this team will have a chance to beat any team on any night.

Right now, that's a true statement in Thompson-Boling Arena. The next step? Do it on the road.

Lucky us: we're in Nashville tomorrow and Lexington next Tuesday.

Ask me about the NCAA Tournament when we're on our way out of Rupp Arena and done with the murderous month of January. But I will say this right now: this team needs to go 8-8 in the SEC to qualify for the NIT. From what we've seen the last five games, that's no longer too much to ask. The goal on January 23 isn't the NIT, however. It's to take our show on the road, win the next game, and continue to see exactly how good we can be...not next year, but right now.

So yeah, Jarnell Stokes is an amazing story. And yeah, if we could shoot free throws at all we might even win some of these games going away. And I mean "going away" in the defensive sense, of course. You could see UConn's shooters get frustrated in the second half from simply not being used to scoring so few points. The good news is, we'll rarely see a combo like Jeremy Lamb and Shabazz Napier that's capable of knocking down such difficult shots. The bad news is, Vanderbilt's backcourt is probably as close as it gets on our schedule, and they're next in Memorial.

But on the other end of the floor, Stokes is only going to get better...and, uh, he's pretty good right now. And the win over UConn helps ensure the sort of effort this defense and this identity requires will still be there into the month of February, because the Vols can still have something to play for. Much like the win over the Gators, that game yesterday was a real win over a real opponent, and can hopefully create real momentum for this basketball team.

Even at 9-10 and 2-3 in their last five...man, is this basketball team fun to watch. Pearl's teams were too, in a totally different way. But this is blue collar stuff, the sort of full intensity defense that demands respect and has begun to receive it from its own hard-to-please fanbase. In five games, Cuonzo Martin has flipped the switch and made us believe that Tennessee Basketball has a new identity...and that identity can win.

Now let's see what they can do on the road.

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So I was browsing statsheet.com yesterday trying to figure out exactly where the transformation was occuring

because I’ve been convinced that the point totals don’t mean a lot about our defense and that the pace-free stats are better. I might turn some of this into a new post later this week if I ever get the chance, but here’s what I have.

*While each of the last five games was better than our season average in points given up, only 4 of the 5 were better than our average in defensive efficiency. Our defensive efficiency in Starkville was as bad as it’s been since ETSU.

*That said, two of our best three defensive games (Georgia, The Citadel, Florida) have come in the last 5.

*Similarly, in 4 of the 5, we bested our season average in defensive eFG%, and Georgia (36.5%) and Florida (42.0%) were the best efforts of the season against D-I competition.

But those statistics, while improved, weren’t improved in the dramatic way I’d (perhaps naïvely) expected. So I looked a little harder, and I found the dramatic improvement:

*Over the season, our opponents have an assist to turnover ratio of .97. Before the new year, our two best defensive A/TO ratios were .85 vs Duke and .64 vs The Citadel. In the last five games: .67, 1.33, .54, .62, .73. That’s four of our top five from the season, all occurring in the last five games.

We may be getting the same number of turnovers, but we’re vastly reducing our opponent’s ability to pass effectively. And that, a cursory glance through the statistics says, is the difference.

(note: we pretty well dominated Mississippi State on the glass, which is how we could get killed in all our defensive metrics and stay so close)

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 23, 2012 9:52 AM EST reply actions  

I forgot one other place I could look for dramatic change:

*Florida’s efficiency against Tennessee (87.5) was their worst of the season. Their second worst was 95.5 at Syracuse. Their average is 120.1.

*Kentucky’s efficiency against Tennessee (98.5) was their third worst of the season, after Louisville (88.5), and Old Dominion (92.5). Their average is 115.3, and the only other teams to hold them below 108 were Kansas (102.7) and Indiana (104.3). Indiana is the only team to beat them.

*Georgia’s efficiency against Tennessee (80.3) was their second worst of the season, after Cal (74.2). They average 98.5, and only three other teams, Xavier (84.8), Cincy (83.6), and Florida (87.3) have held them below 90.

*UConn’s efficiency against Tennessee (95.0) was their second worst of the season, after Rutgers (90.9). They average 109.8, and only three teams (Tennessee, Rutgers, and Seton Hall, all teams that beat them) have held them below 100.

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 23, 2012 10:17 AM EST up reply actions  

so what I'm reading from that is

that defensively, UT is forcing other teams to a couple standard deviations below their average efficiency. This behavior has only started since the beginning of 2012.

It's Great! To be! A Tennessee Vol!

by falconnuke on Jan 23, 2012 10:24 AM EST up reply actions  

with the exception of Mississippi State

pretty much. yeah. Was just hunting for pace-free statistical reinforcement of what our eyes were telling us. And I definitely found it.

(in case you’re wondering about our off night, MSU averages 109.1 and got 103.3 against us. Their SEC totals in five games are 114.3, 103.3, 96.6, 107.9, and 109.9)

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 23, 2012 10:32 AM EST up reply actions  

I wondered about steps along the way

because The Citadel is 4-14 with two wins over D-II opponents, and Chattanooga is just 9-12, but we were increasingly solid defensively in that four game win streak after Charleston. Maybe some seeds planted there that couldn’t truly grow until the Memphis loss.

by Will Shelton on Jan 23, 2012 11:06 AM EST up reply actions  

Which is what I was thinking.

I had seen some improvement already; the question that I had was where were enough points going to come from if the defense kept getting better. Now it seems we have an answer there.

by Chris Pendley on Jan 23, 2012 1:11 PM EST up reply actions  

I adjusted the stats in the bullet points this morning

Chaminade has been throwing me off all season, because some places only report stats against D-1 opponents. Still, my bad. So the Vols are giving up ten, not fifteen, fewer points per game in the last five, and have actually increased their turnover production by about one per game. Still very good.

by Will Shelton on Jan 23, 2012 11:37 AM EST reply actions  

The numbers include overtime

in regulation, it’s 68.4 ppg allowed in the first 14, 57.2 allowed in the last 5

by Will Shelton on Jan 23, 2012 1:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I like the regulation time comparison better

not because it looks a tad better, but because overtime is prone to wonkiness, and because it treats all games with equal time.

On another thought: I’m not sure it’s necessarily belief. Switching systems takes time. They have to learn it, then practice it, then have enough time playing in it to become fluid in it. I can be easily persuaded to believe that the team had to think through everything for most of the early parts of the year, which inhibited their effectiveness. As they get repetition, more of the defense is getting committed to reflexive memory, speeding up their reactions and allowing them to think more creatively. I think they bought in the whole time, and that they just needed enough hours to get everything down and stop overthinking.

It’s kinda like Crompton: once he rehearsed a (sufficiently simple and non-Claw-y) system well enough to stop thinking about it, he did rather well.

by David Hooper on Jan 23, 2012 2:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Right, this.

I think this is why we saw that smart-dumb period that was driving me nuts (read: December, Georgia).

by Chris Pendley on Jan 23, 2012 3:04 PM EST up reply actions  

There are elements of process, certainly

but I’m still massively impressed at the difference between Memphis and Florida, then the way what we saw against Florida has been what we’ve seen, defensively, every night since.

by Will Shelton on Jan 23, 2012 3:22 PM EST up reply actions  

tempo-free stats solve this problem

and are also better

just sayin’

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 23, 2012 4:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Does the intensity of this type of defense affect the offense?

It seems our offense has changed in proportion to our improved defense.

by TMT-GBO on Jan 23, 2012 5:03 PM EST reply actions  

You can see it on some nights

we quit turning the ball over against UConn (had 10, tying our season low with UTC and Oakland), which certainly helped because we needed all the points we could get. But other than one better turnover game and one better shooting game (51% against Florida, the other four games we’ve shot between 40.0-42.6%), the only major difference I can see on the offensive end is Stokes.

by Will Shelton on Jan 23, 2012 5:13 PM EST up reply actions  

you mean to say our offense has scored less as our defense has allowed less?

yes, the games in general have slowed down. Also, our offense has performed below its average in six straight games. But you also have to remember that that average is skewed by ridiculously efficient performances against UNCG, ULM, and The CItadel.

And actually, our three worst offensive performances have come in the last six games (Memphis, Georgia, Kentucky). But I’m willing to chalk Memphis and Georgia up to bad shooting nights on the road (which do happen) and Kentucky to just playing a really, really good defense. Kentucky holds teams to an average offensive efficiency of 86.6. Our 93.9 is the 6th best against them this year (behind Indiana, North Carolina, Alabama, South Carolina and Loyola, but well ahead of Kansas, Louisville, and Arkansas).

Our offensive performance against UConn was comparable to what we put up against Charleston (100.0 efficiency in both games). Our offensive performance against Florida (104) was a touch below what we got against Peay (106) and Chattanooga (107). Our offensive performance against Mississippi State was pretty much dead even with what we got against Pitt (96.7 vs 96.6)

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 23, 2012 5:14 PM EST up reply actions  

glad it's appreciated

I swear I’m going to do an in-depth post one day on how the season’s been trending with offensive/defensive efficiency, both relative to our average and our opponents’ averages. But it might end up being a look-back after the season’s done. We’ll see.

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 23, 2012 11:26 PM EST up reply actions  

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