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Around SBN: Cowboys Draft 2012: The Big Board Version 3.0

Where will Peyton Manning go?

You want answers?  I want the truth!

The writing on the wall is in large print in Indianapolis. Bob Kravitz of the Indianapolis Star, to whom Manning spoke exclusively earlier this week on a variety of topics, spoke with Manning again yesterday after owner Jim Irsay called Manning a politician. Kravitz opens his column like this:

It is so sad and so hard to write it again, but it's true: Peyton Manning is done in Indianapolis.

After listening to Manning Monday night, after listening to owner Jim Irsay characterize Manning Thursday as "a politician" who should keep his concerns "in house," there's no other conclusion to be reached by a sane, sober human being: Manning's days in Indianapolis are over, and they have been over for quite some time.

Again, I write this as a UT fan first and, in this case, a Titans fan second, and am the expert on neither (for more on the Colts, check out Stampede Blue). Nor am I the expert on contract negotiations or anything to do with the NFL...but because even fifteen years later, Peyton Manning remains on the pedestal in Knoxville with thousands of fans waiting to hear who their new favorite NFL team will be, we offer a few thoughts on the matter today.

If in fact his time is done in Indianapolis, where will Peyton Manning finish his career? This is all hoping and assuming that he's healthy and capable of doing so, but he continues to rehab in such a way that suggests he believes he's coming back, and right now that's good enough for me.

Though I'm sure all of us would love Manning to land on our favorite team and take them to the Super Bowl, the reality is that even though Manning is one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game, he's not going to land just anywhere. So which teams make the most sense? And where would you most like to see him land?

After the jump, we examine the candidates...feel free to agree or disagree, as always...

Star-divide

If we assume Indianapolis is off the board, let's take a look at the other places we know for sure he's not going:

Almost certainly not: Atlanta, Carolina, Chicago, Cincinnati, Detroit, Green Bay, Houston, New England, New Orleans, NY Giants, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, San Diego

Should be self-explanatory: all of these teams either have a franchise quarterback proven capable of getting them to the playoffs and/or they have a young guy they're completely invested in. This isn't to say that all 14 of these guys are better than a healthy Manning, because most of them aren't...but they're also successful guys in mostly stable environments who are almost all younger and healthier. This eliminates almost half the league. The two least likely destinations for Manning are playing each other in the Super Bowl.

We'd love to, but we can't: Buffalo, Jacksonville, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Tennessee

None of these teams may be feeling great about their quarterback, but they're financially committed to them. Kevin Kolb (the Cards have a $7 mil option on Kolb, so we moved them up the list), Ryan Fitzpatrick (who got paid when Buffalo was 4-2; the Bills finished 6-10), Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Josh Freeman, and Jake Locker are a long, long way from guarantees, but each team appears to be committed, financially and otherwise, to seeing where they can go with them. It's interesting to note that if Kerry Collins had played for the Titans and not the Colts in 2011, they might have been in great position to sign Manning and have Locker study under him. But with Matt Hasselbeck serving well in that role, alas, Tennessee's favorite son doesn't appear to be on the table in Nashville.

Non-Playoff Angst: Dallas, NY Jets

Or, "We're one quarterback away!", Part I. Did you know Tony Romo turns 32 in April? Did you know he's won one playoff game? With Jerry Jones in the mix and Dallas an annual underachiever, never say never...I'd be curious to know what percentage of Cowboys fans would pull the trigger on this move. Mark Sanchez is just 25, has played in a pair of AFC Championship Games, but don't count out the Jets making a play for Manning, especially with former Indianapolis offensive coordinator Tom Moore serving as a consultant with the Jets. How would Peyton weigh playing in Eli's city?

AFC/NFC Championship Game Angst: Baltimore, San Francisco

Or, "We're one quarterback away!", Part II. Earlier in the year, I would've said San Francisco was the most likely destination for Manning. Then Alex Smith resurrected his career under Jim Harbaugh, throwing for 299 and three touchdowns against the Saints in the playoffs. The guy threw five interceptions all season. He wasn't great in the NFC title game, but would the Niners really go away from him after the season they just had? Meanwhile, Joe Flacco is routinely criticized in Baltimore, even by his own teammates. But the guy has won five playoff games and been to a pair of AFC title games. I can't see Manning going to either of these two teams, even though some of their frustrated fans might want that outcome at the moment.

It's not me, it's you: Cleveland

Oh, the Browns would love to have him and would be able to pay for his services. But can you picture Peyton Manning in a Browns jersey? I didn't think so.

Never say never: Oakland

The Raiders sacrificed their future for Carson Palmer last season, giving away their first round pick in this year's draft and a second round pick in next year's draft. But it's the Raiders. Al Davis may be dead, but his spirit lives on. Did you know Denarius Moore was their second leading receiver this year?

Would you rather have 36 year old Peyton Manning or 25 year old Tim Tebow?: Denver

I'll hang up and listen.

That leaves...

THE TOP FIVE (in alphabetical order)

Arizona: The Cardinals have until March 17 to decide whether or not they want to pay $7 million to keep Kevin Kolb. The Colts have to figure out what to do with Manning by March 8, when he's currently due a $28 million dollar bonus. The Cardinals were 8-8 this season, certainly in the mix. Beanie Wells supplies a decent run game, weather wouldn't be a factor, the NFC West is still probably the easiest division in football...and oh yeah, Larry Fitzgerald is there. Earlier this week Fitzgerald said he couldn't see Manning leaving Indy, but if the writing on the wall is true, Manning could do far worse than Arizona.

Kansas City: We've made our point on this already: Vol fans should want Manning to head to the Chiefs so he can play with Eric Berry. Manning would have to deal with the elements in KC, but he would be surrounded by young offensive talent with Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe (who could be lost to free agency, but certainly could be encouraged to stay if Manning is on board), Dexter McCluster, Steve Breaston, and more. Matt Cassel got the Chiefs to the playoffs in 2010 and was hurt last year, but is he really the long term answer in KC? Manning could be a perfect fit for the Chiefs.

Miami: Would be an interesting marriage with ex-Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin, who could bring Matt Flynn with him if they don't look Peyton's way, though the Miami Herald believes Manning is the priority. This team has Brandon Marshall and Reggie Bush and a good defense. Carl Peterson, an adviser to Dolphins' owner Stephen Ross, was involved in the deal that brought 36 year old Joe Montana to Kansas City.

Seattle: Because Manning and Pete Carroll makes a bunch of sense, right? Manning would be a clear upgrade from the Tarvaris Jackson/Charlie Whitehurst combo of death, and though the Seahawks have no great wide receivers, they do have Marshawn Lynch and do play in the NFC West. Perhaps not an ideal choice, but one that can't be ignored either.

Washington: Last year I dated a girl from the DC area who said she still had a hard time with the Vols because she still held a grudge against Heath Shuler. Beware the Redskins. Mel Kiper says he keeps hearing Manning to Washington, whatever that's worth. There's Daniel Snyder's money and Mike Shanahan's experience. The Skins did beat the Giants twice this season and do have a serviceable defense. It would include the extra added benefit that Manning not only beat Rex Grossman in the Super Bowl, he then took his job six years later. However, here are the top three wide receivers for the Skins in 2011: Jabar Gaffney, Santana Moss, Donte Stallworth. Ladies and gentlemen, the 2001 All-America Team!

My hope continues to be that Manning will land in Kansas City, though I think he could also win big in Arizona. Other than that first group of teams, I wouldn't take anything off the table though.

And above all, I hope Manning is healthy first, and far away from the Titans second. We all want to see Peyton get healthy and finish his career well, and land somewhere that gives him the chance to do that.

If not, I'd like to again point out that the Vols still have an opening for an assistant coach.

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Enter StampedeBlue at your own risk

The head writer over there is a grade A jerk, quick to ban for perceived slights

2015 St. Louis Rotation-- Wainwright, Garcia, Miller, Martinez, Rosenthal...towels please

by VolsnCards5 on Jan 27, 2012 8:12 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

I almost never read there

just put the link for info – I stick to Music City Miracles

by Will Shelton on Jan 27, 2012 10:56 AM EST up reply actions  

I love MCM.

But yeah, Stampede Blue doesn’t have a great reputation.

"Do the Titans have a miracle left in them in what has been a magical season to this point? If they do, they need it now. Christie kicks it high and short. Gonna be fielded by Lorenzo Neal at the 25; he dishes it back to Wycheck; he throws it across the field to Dyson. 30, 40, 50, 40, 30, 20, 10, 5, endzone...touchdown, Titans! There are no flags on the field! It's a miracle! Tennessee has pulled a miracle! A miracle for the Titans!"

by TennesseeTyrants on Jan 27, 2012 12:38 PM EST up reply actions  

While I'd like to see Peyton play again

after three neck surgeries, I’d also encourage him to hang up the cleats, enjoy his wealth and use his name/money to give back. It’s very rewarding stuff.

After that many beatings in the NFL, his older years will be painful anyway. Another serious injury is not something I’d want anyone to endure – much less Peyton.

The Colts went from the playoffs to a 2-14 team. That scared the heck out of them. New GM, new coaches, new QB coming and lots of other new players will be coming soon in a complete Home Makeover edition of the Colts.

Now is a natural time to make the transition for the Colts … and for Peyton.

Stokes'd about ZoVols - don't care what the record is.

by memphispete on Jan 27, 2012 8:12 AM EST reply actions  

I'd like to see Peyton

Go to a team with a really good defense. I can only imagine what he could’ve done over the years if he had a team with a dominant defense. I bet he’d have more than one superbowl ring. So in keeping with that thought, I’d love to see him in Denver, NYJ (even though I can’t stand Rex Ryan), KC or San Fran. Any thoughts from others?

by Displaced_Vol_Fan on Jan 27, 2012 8:44 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

I just can't see the Jets

I can’t see him playing in Eli’s city, especially with the Giants in the Super Bowl again. The Niners were 29th in the league in passing, and other than Crabtree and Davis, their options are limited…but Peyton made good receivers great and decent receivers appear out of thin air in Indy. I think San Fran is still the best option to win a Super Bowl, but I just can’t see them ditching Alex Smith after this year. I’m sticking with KC.

by Will Shelton on Jan 27, 2012 11:05 AM EST up reply actions  

I just want to see Peyton win one more Super Bowl before he hangs them up

and I hope he’s good enough after the surgery to be able to lead a team there.

My favorite choices would probably be Arizona or Kansas City. I’ve always had a soft spot for the hard-luck franchises, and I spent 1998 as a Cards fan (because the Panthers weren’t any good, I already had a soft spot for Arizona, and the Cards had a genuine chance of wresting the East away from the Cowboys, who I’d grown sick of after their 5 straight East championships). Would be cool to see that franchise win a Super Bowl, and as you said, they’re in a division where they should have a solid playoff shot. Kansas City is obvious for Eric Berry purposes. Those two winning a Super Bowl with the same team? Would be fantastic

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 27, 2012 9:24 AM EST reply actions  

Joe Montana already been there done that with the Chefs

San Fran seems the best fit for team need and position for Super Bowl. I love the Vikings but don’t think the team is really close enough to Super Bowl ready plus they’re still trying to get over the Farvrah memory and they need to figure out how to develop a QB of their own versus expensive used models (McNabb, Favre, Cunningham, McMann, etc.).

Raiders?
Washington?
Tennessee?

by phil g on Jan 27, 2012 2:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I still say Peyton to San Fran makes all kinds of sense

2015 St. Louis Rotation-- Wainwright, Garcia, Miller, Martinez, Rosenthal...towels please

by VolsnCards5 on Jan 27, 2012 9:36 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

it really does

Alex Smith resurgence or no, he’s no Peyton Manning

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 27, 2012 9:45 AM EST up reply actions  

This is just lousy

Peyton (of all people) should be able to finish his career at one place. This is the type of thing that has always appalled me about pro ball. On the flipside, I’m pretty certain that he’s way too smart to fall into a Farve-esque self-parody spiral- I don’t imagine he’ll keep playing if his health is limiting him, so if he does play someplace else he’ll play gangbusters.

Also, for the record- am I the only person who thinks Andrew Luck is crazily, crazily overrated?

by _trey_ on Jan 27, 2012 11:17 AM EST reply actions  

I think he's as much of a sure thing as the last three guys picked number one

and Stafford, Bradford, and Newton have all done pretty well so far. There’s no way anyone can predict how great he’ll become right now, and if Manning was healthy and somehow had the number one pick there’s no way I could see them drafting him…but Indy clearly needed to blow the whole thing up, and he’s clearly the best option.

by Will Shelton on Jan 27, 2012 11:27 AM EST up reply actions  

RGIII is just a tad short

I’m sure he’ll have as good a shot as anybody at a great NFL career, but Luck is prototypical regarding size, arm strength, brain, etc

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 27, 2012 11:40 AM EST up reply actions  

True, but JaMarcus and David Carr were prototypical as well

RGIII and Luck seem to have pretty similar skillsets/technique- but Baylor ain’t much without the former. RGIII just strikes me as somebody who did a lot more with a lot, lot less.
LUCK IS A GAME MANAGER CLAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY

by _trey_ on Jan 27, 2012 11:49 AM EST up reply actions  

oh RGIII was the better college QB and it wasn't particularly close

but Luck is a safer NFL bet. And JaMarcus wasn’t prototypical in anything but size. Did he ever have brains? Or accuracy?

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 27, 2012 12:15 PM EST up reply actions  

OK, bringing up Russel was troll

But other than the height issue (which is reasonable), RGIII just looked much better to me. He’s superb throwing on the move, was just frighteningly accurate, and looked very comfortable just totally taking control of a game- and against what I think were considerably more sophisticated secondaries than what Luck had to face.

by _trey_ on Jan 27, 2012 12:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm with you on the merits of RGIII

until you start talking about the sophistication of Big 12 secondaries.

If you say RGIII has the higher upside, I won’t argue with you at all. But I think Luck is the safer bet. Mostly on height. 6’2 in the NFL is always a little bit of a toss of the dice.

I do think that it’s easy to lump RGIII into the category of “just makes plays with sheer athleticism, won’t be able to keep that up against NFL speed.” When I think if people in this category, Michael Vick and Heath Shuler immediately spring to mind. And, while RGIII is just as athletic, it is a mistake to put him in this category. Because those two were dumb as stones, and RGIII is the opposite of that. I have no doubt he’ll be able to read NFL defenses.

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 27, 2012 12:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, that latter bit was mostly what I was driving at

I think I just hear a lot of people lumping him in with that group, and it’s unfair and frankly kinda sketchy.
And fair point about the upside/safer bet distinction.

Judging from the bowl records this year, the Pac-12 would be better lining up trash cans than trying to field defenses. The Big 12 isn’t much better, but at least they’re used to people lobbing it at them 50 times a game. REPS, BRAH, REPS

by _trey_ on Jan 27, 2012 1:01 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not sure if it's a racial bias or a MUST BE PURE POCKET PASSER bias

but either way, we have a bias against people who do too much of their college work on the ground. And with good reason, because it normally means they’re living purely on athleticism, and they won’t be able to do that in the pros. But every once in a while we see someone who lives purely on athleticism just because he can, but obviously has the tools (basically calmness and ability to read defenses) to become a pocket passer if need be. And RGIII is clearly one of those. But that doesn’t mean it won’t be a transition, because the fact remains that he won’t be able to do in the NFL what he could do in college. So there may be growing pains. But he’s well-equipped to handle them, and I seriously doubt he’ll wash out.

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 27, 2012 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

There WAS absolutely a bias against African American QBs

well into the 1990s that originated in the idea that they weren’t “intelligent enough”. My grandfather was an oldschool SEC end, and used to rant and rave about that.

I don’t believe the intelligence argument carries significant weight any more, but there does still seem to be the irritating black=dual threat idea. Now obviously RGIII is a dual threat QB, but he’s also got an NFL arm. If he can maintain himself as a run threat, it will absolutely make it much easier to get WRs open… but he obviously has to make sure he doesn’t get killed.

Honestly though, I keep hearing about how running QBs will get themselves killed in the NFL… but I have yet to actually see it happen.

by Caban on Jan 27, 2012 1:46 PM EST up reply actions  

and slightly interesting fact...

Marlin Briscoe, the first black starting QB in the NFL, was named the starter for the Denver Broncos by Coach Lou Saban.

Yeah, Nick’s dad.

by Caban on Jan 27, 2012 1:47 PM EST up reply actions  

cancel that...

they are cousins, and I am an idiot

by Caban on Jan 27, 2012 1:51 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't think the arm is usually the question

what dual-threat QB have you seen come out recently that hasn’t had a bigtime NFL arm? I genuinely think it’s intelligence. Hasn’t it always been “yeah, he can throw hard and run fast, but can he pick apart an NFL defense?”

It might be some hanging on from old 80s and 90s racial biases, but there’s still reason for athleticism bias now: when you’re athletic enough to throw it past everybody and/or run away from everybody, you haven’t had to try to sit back in the pocket and read a defense. So the NFL guys have to project your ability to do so instead of just popping in film and seeing how you react.

This is why Heath Shuler didn’t make it and why I think RGIII will. Both could rely on their athleticism in college, but Shuler wasn’t smart enough to read an NFL defense, and I’m pretty sure RGIII is. But I do think it’s a legitimate question to ask

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 27, 2012 1:53 PM EST up reply actions  

I'll go ahead and say I think it's pretty clearly racial

And I think Caban hit it on the head above with the “black=dual threat” thing. Dunno about NFL scouts, but I think you see it all the time in the media. I remember being about to punch somebody watching one of the last couple Baylor games- the commentator guy kept saying over and over how much RGIII reminded him of Michael Vick, as he ran 3- and 5-step drop after 3- and 5-step drop. It’s bizarre, and gross. Stats break:

RGIII 2011:
comp:267
att:369
per:72.4%
yds:3,998
rushes:161
Yds: 644

Luck 2011:
comp:288
att:404
per:71.3%
yds:3,517
rushes:47
Yds:150

And Luck ran for 450 yards in 2010. RGIII isn’t really ‘dual-threat’ so much as is he an amazing dropback QB who happens to also be fast and elusive as hell. And yet the media narrative is that Luck is this NFL-ready master technician and that RGIII is ‘athletic’ or whatever.

by _trey_ on Jan 27, 2012 3:30 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah, I think it's probably racial, especially as the media-narrative is concerned

but I am saying there are legitimate questions with the dual-threat types that aren’t necessarily racial (for which reason I keep bringing up Heath Shuler). But I don’t think RGIII is really a question mark on those areas. He’s too smart, and he’s done too much pure passing.

Although Vince Young and JaMarcus Russell managed fine accuracy numbers despite being dumb as rocks, so I wouldn’t really take that as the be all and end all. And RGIII did do a lot of running, almost certainly more than he’ll be able to do in the NFL. But he passed in the pocket enough to convince me he’s good at it.

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 27, 2012 3:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh, def. agree about the legitimacy of concerns about true dual-threat types

Just yeah, don’t think it applies in this particular instance.

In other situations I think it’s certainly legit. While I thought most of the doom and gloom prognostications about CammyCam in the NFL were sour grapes/haters, I think it’s a big testament to him and to the uniqueness of his talent that he was able to adapt so quickly.

by _trey_ on Jan 27, 2012 4:15 PM EST up reply actions  

for the record...

my grandfather used to rant and rave about how dumb NFL owners were for ignoring some really amazing black QBs until the 1980s.

by Caban on Jan 27, 2012 1:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Ahhhh not so much

If you include brains and normalcy in the criteria…JaMarcus is an idiot and Carr is a strange goof ball.

by phil g on Jan 27, 2012 2:45 PM EST up reply actions  

I never said short QBs can't be winners

just that they’re a little more chancey.

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 27, 2012 3:57 PM EST up reply actions  

I think Baltimore and nyj would be 1 and 2 if I were Peyton. Baltimore’s defensive leaders are getting older their window is closing but theyre still really good so thry want to win now. He would come in with a receiving corps that’s no worse than he had recently in Indy and a way better run game. Nyj are similar but seem to have more issues and I think ray Lewis and Ed reed just make Baltimore’s defense more stable.

If its me I don’t want to go Anywhere on that last list because I’m 36 I just had neck surgery I want that Super Bowl ring and I don’t have 5 years to wait on ownership to get their stuff together.

by Rockytop85 on Jan 27, 2012 1:50 PM EST reply actions  

I could see possibility of NYJ but not Baltimore

I don’t think Baltimore would mess with Flacco that way but I think NYJ would do whatever it takes and Sanchez is clearly not the answer. Peyton and Eli could room together…brilliant

by phil g on Jan 27, 2012 2:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Super Bowl 48...

in 2014 could become a “subway Super Bowl” if everything broke right.

That would be kinda awesome.

by Caban on Jan 27, 2012 2:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I could see it.

There are rumors that he and Cam Cameron don’t get along.

Cameron just got a contract extension.

Flacco wants one.

I could see them trading or cutting Flacco and signing Manning and having him play for a few seasons and then tutoring a draft pick that they grab in 2013 or something.

The problem with that idea is that it’s a huge gamble to cut a guy like Flacco/Sanchez who might go somewhere else and succeed and get a guy like Manning who might blow up in your face if he doesn’t heal.

by Rockytop85 on Jan 27, 2012 9:18 PM EST up reply actions  

I wonder about them wanting to replace Flacco

after watching the AFCCG. Which Flacco did his very best to win. He outdueled Tom Brady. That says something about his ability

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 27, 2012 10:10 PM EST up reply actions  

retire

I wish he would retire and go into coaching. This neck injury was serious. I just don’t think he has anything else to prove. He is a hall of fame lock. He got his super bowl. He loves coaching. He has twins to think about now. Just horrible to think of what a serious neck injury could do him of it happened again.

by tenken on Jan 29, 2012 12:38 AM EST via mobile reply actions  


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