We thought we knew, didn't we? Alabama-Oregon was preordained, with upstart Kansas State getting left at the altar again and echoes awoken yet again - but still slumbering, at least by the "have you played in a title game" metric - in South Bend. Now? Well, Johnny Manziel happened all over Tuscaloosa and we're a not-totally-implausible voter swing away from Oregon-Notre Dame, with no immediate recourse for a SEC team making the title game. And I don't see a reason for it not to be that way, either.

As always, we have no idea what we're doing, except in this case it's just me. I_S will resurface later.

1. Oregon

2. Kansas State

3. Notre Dame

4. Alabama

I still can't put Alabama out of the top group for now - A&M played what was basically as perfect a game as you can play against Alabama. Oregon, meanwhile, afterburnered Cal just for the fun of it.

5. Florida State

6. Florida

7. LSU

8. South Carolina

9. Georgia

10. Texas A&M

aka Florida State and nearly half of the SEC. My order diverges a bit from I_S's, and there are a couple reasons for that: I tend to value win quality rather highly and beatpath where I can. However, I can't put Florida in the top 5 after yesterday, so FSU gets a bump up. I can't imagine they'd ever go higher than that, though. As far as the rest: it's beatpath, mostly, with the exception of Georgia (has played 2 of the top 6 teams and gone 1-1) and Texas A&M (has played 3 teams, gone 1-2, but that one is pretty good). I'm still not convinced that Georgia's any good, but I can't really deny them much more at this point. Also, yes, that is 6 SEC teams in 7 slots.

11. Oklahoma

12. Stanford

13. Oregon State

14. UCLA

15. Nebraska

Oklahoma's been under the radar enough, but their losses are to top 3 teams, so sure. That's a decent middle-sized pack in the Pac-12, but Stanford beat Oregon State (by 4, at home), so they jump up for now. UCLA, which has been mostly forgotten all season, pops up here and has an opportunity to boost Oregon's strength of schedule in a few weeks if they get by Southern Cal. Nebraska, meanwhile, seems halfway decent, so hey, go B1G.

16. Clemson

17. Southern Cal

18. Texas

19. Louisville

Yeah, we're in the "why not" portion of the top 25. Southern Cal is a nice patsy, Clemson still hasn't beaten anyone, Texas is doing Texas things, and Louisville ...well, Louisville got housed by Syracuse. Odd.

20. Louisiana Tech

21. Utah State

22. Northern Illinois

23. Kent State

24. Cincinnati

25. Texas Tech

Look, I'm sorry; I can't keep you at 22 when you need OT to beat Kansas at home. At least NIU beat them on the road. As far as the rest - it's the usual.

Consideration pile: Mississippi State, Rutgers, Bowling Green, Oklahoma State, San Jose State, Michigan, Wisconsin, anyone else you want

How wrong am I? Let me hear it.