A weekly look at our upcoming opponent's recent history, with animated drive charts, links to SB Nation game pages, and statistical comparisons. Caveats. I'm mixing it up a bit this week, moving the more important and more interesting head-to-head chart up front, followed by the Sketchy Conclusions and Prediction, and then followed by the details.

Head to Head Comparisons

			Comps	Result Against Comps	Prediction
UT rush v. Vandy rush defense	161.10 (#62)	153.40 (#57)	MO/MS St. (143.10/163.30) (#41/#68)	153/213	180
UT pass v. Vandy pass defense	334 (#7)	177 (#14)	AL/FL (171.60/185) (#9/#17)	203/257	230
Vandy rush v. UT rush defense	190.50 (#92)	166 (#59)	Troy (174.50) (#49)	225	180/234
Vandy pass v. UT pass defense	289.70 (#113)	217.70 (#75)	AL (225) (#70)	306	290/377
UT scoring offense v. Vandy scoring defense	37.90 (#20)	18 (#16)	SC/GA (18.50/18.80) (#19/#22)	35/44	40
Vandy scoring offense v. UT scoring defense	37 (#110)	25.60 (#81)	FL/MO/Akron (26.10/25.30/26.36) (#77/#84/#75)	37/51(28)/26	39
Again with the caveats: These are informed guesses rather than mathematical calculations. But here's the general analytical framework: We are averaging X in a certain category. The opponent averages Y against that, which is most closely comparable to some identified previous opponent, against whom we did Z. All of that leads to an informed guess labeled as Prediction. And one more time for emphasis: The less data you have, the more sketchy the guess, and the guesses range from ALL CAPS SKETCHY WITH EXCLAMATION POINTS at the beginning of the season to merely lower case sketchy for the last game.

If you're new to this chart, here's how it normally works. Looking at Vandy's Scoring Offense against UT's Scoring Defense, UT is giving up 37 points per game. Vandy is getting 25.60, which is right around what Florida, Missouri, and Akron are doing. Those teams scored (in regulation) 37, 28, and 26 points against UT, so the prediction is 30 points. However, . . .

. . . two weeks ago, I came to more fully appreciate Tennessee's struggles on defense because the predictions were off by 40% on Troy's rushing yards and by 100% on Troy's passing yards and points. So last week, I gave Missouri's offensive predictions a 50% premium and predicted 172 rushing yards, 390 passing yards, and 43 points (and the victory). They got 153, 432, and 51. Yeah, those stats are inflated by overtime, but a result is a result. So I'm going with a 30% premium on those stats for the Vandy game. So the first number is what I would normally predict, and the second is the number with the premium. I would not rule out overtime for the second week in a row.

Sketchy Conclusions

• Vandy's rushing defense is most like Missouri and Mississippi State, and its passing defense is most like, gulp, Alabama and Florida.
• The Commodores' offense is most like Troy on the ground and Alabama through the air.
• Yeah, Vandy's defense is pretty stout, but Tennessee should put up some points. So should Vandy, though, and if Tennessee's defense continues to struggle to the degree it has struggled over the past couple of games, we could be looking at overtime for the second consecutive week.

Predictions

• Tennessee 40, Vanderbilt 39

Schedule and Animated Drive Charts

South Carolina Gamecocks	8/30/12	loss 13 - 17	coverage
@ Northwestern Wildcats	9/8/12	loss 13 - 23	coverage
Presbyterian Blue Hose	9/15/12	win 58 - 0	coverage
@ Georgia Bulldogs	9/22/12	loss 3 - 48	coverage
@ Missouri Tigers	10/6/12	win 19 - 15	coverage
Florida Gators	10/13/12	loss 17 - 31	coverage
Auburn Tigers	10/20/12	win 17 - 13	coverage
UMass Minutemen	10/27/12	win 49 - 7	coverage
@ Kentucky Wildcats	11/3/12	win 40 - 0	coverage
@ Mississippi Rebels	11/10/12	win 27 - 26	coverage
@ N.C. State Wolfpack	8/31/12	win 35 - 21	coverage
Georgia State Panthers	9/8/12	win 51 - 13	coverage
Florida Gators	9/15/12	loss 20 - 37	coverage
Akron Zips	9/22/12	win 47 - 26	coverage
@ Georgia Bulldogs	9/29/12	loss 44 - 51	coverage
@ Mississippi St. Bulldogs	10/13/12	loss 31 - 41	coverage
Alabama Crimson Tide	10/20/12	loss 13 - 44	coverage
@ South Carolina Gamecocks	10/27/12	loss 35 - 38	coverage
Troy Trojans	11/3/12	win 55 - 48	coverage
Missouri Tigers	11/10/12	loss 48 - 51	coverage

According to the NCAA's "Toughest Schedule" PDF, Tennessee's schedule is now 12th, and Vandy's is 57th. Vandy is 6-4, and we're not releasing our record to the public without asubpoena.

Here are the drive charts for the two teams' games against Missouri:

National Unit Rankings

Offensive observations. Not much offense here. Seems like I could have been saying this for weeks.

Defensive observations.Yeah, I really should be cutting and pasting at this point. Not much offense; good defense. Shootout, high noon.

Special teams and turnovers observations. Eh.

Players to Watch

Offensive Observations. Nothing much to see here except that we should expect Jordan Matthews to go absolutely all over crazy against our D this weekend. Whether he'll share is the real question.

Defense. While the defense is solid, it doesn't look like there are any superstars here.

Special teams. Okay.