Overtime for the second week in a row? It could happen.
A weekly look at our upcoming opponent's recent history, with animated drive charts, links to SB Nation game pages, and statistical comparisons. Caveats. I'm mixing it up a bit this week, moving the more important and more interesting head-to-head chart up front, followed by the Sketchy Conclusions and Prediction, and then followed by the details.
Head to Head Comparisons
Result Against Comps
|UT rush v. Vandy rush defense||161.10
|UT pass v. Vandy pass defense||334
|Vandy rush v. UT rush defense||190.50
|Vandy pass v. UT pass defense||289.70
|UT scoring offense v. Vandy scoring defense||37.90
|Vandy scoring offense v. UT scoring defense||37
|Again with the caveats: These are informed guesses rather than mathematical calculations. But here's the general analytical framework: We are averaging X in a certain category. The opponent averages Y against that, which is most closely comparable to some identified previous opponent, against whom we did Z. All of that leads to an informed guess labeled as Prediction. And one more time for emphasis: The less data you have, the more sketchy the guess, and the guesses range from ALL CAPS SKETCHY WITH EXCLAMATION POINTS at the beginning of the season to merely lower case sketchy for the last game.|
If you're new to this chart, here's how it normally works. Looking at Vandy's Scoring Offense against UT's Scoring Defense, UT is giving up 37 points per game. Vandy is getting 25.60, which is right around what Florida, Missouri, and Akron are doing. Those teams scored (in regulation) 37, 28, and 26 points against UT, so the prediction is 30 points. However, . . .
. . . two weeks ago, I came to more fully appreciate Tennessee's struggles on defense because the predictions were off by 40% on Troy's rushing yards and by 100% on Troy's passing yards and points. So last week, I gave Missouri's offensive predictions a 50% premium and predicted 172 rushing yards, 390 passing yards, and 43 points (and the victory). They got 153, 432, and 51. Yeah, those stats are inflated by overtime, but a result is a result. So I'm going with a 30% premium on those stats for the Vandy game. So the first number is what I would normally predict, and the second is the number with the premium. I would not rule out overtime for the second week in a row.
- Vandy's rushing defense is most like Missouri and Mississippi State, and its passing defense is most like, gulp, Alabama and Florida.
- The Commodores' offense is most like Troy on the ground and Alabama through the air.
- Yeah, Vandy's defense is pretty stout, but Tennessee should put up some points. So should Vandy, though, and if Tennessee's defense continues to struggle to the degree it has struggled over the past couple of games, we could be looking at overtime for the second consecutive week.
- Tennessee 40, Vanderbilt 39
Schedule and Animated Drive Charts
|South Carolina Gamecocks||8/30/12||loss 13 - 17||coverage|
|@ Northwestern Wildcats||9/8/12||loss 13 - 23||coverage|
|Presbyterian Blue Hose||9/15/12||win 58 - 0||coverage|
|@ Georgia Bulldogs||9/22/12||loss 3 - 48||coverage|
|@ Missouri Tigers||10/6/12||win 19 - 15||coverage|
|Florida Gators||10/13/12||loss 17 - 31||coverage|
|Auburn Tigers||10/20/12||win 17 - 13||coverage|
|UMass Minutemen||10/27/12||win 49 - 7||coverage|
|@ Kentucky Wildcats||11/3/12||win 40 - 0||coverage|
|@ Mississippi Rebels||11/10/12||win 27 - 26||coverage|
|@ N.C. State Wolfpack||8/31/12||win 35 - 21||coverage|
|Georgia State Panthers||9/8/12||win 51 - 13||coverage|
|Florida Gators||9/15/12||loss 20 - 37||coverage|
|Akron Zips||9/22/12||win 47 - 26||coverage|
|@ Georgia Bulldogs||9/29/12||loss 44 - 51||coverage|
|@ Mississippi St. Bulldogs||10/13/12||loss 31 - 41||coverage|
|Alabama Crimson Tide||10/20/12||loss 13 - 44||coverage|
|@ South Carolina Gamecocks||10/27/12||loss 35 - 38||coverage|
|Troy Trojans||11/3/12||win 55 - 48||coverage|
|Missouri Tigers||11/10/12||loss 48 - 51||coverage|
According to the NCAA's "Toughest Schedule" PDF, Tennessee's schedule is now 12th, and Vandy's is 57th. Vandy is 6-4, and we're not releasing our record to the public without asubpoena.
Here are the drive charts for the two teams' games against Missouri:
Animated Drive Chart brought to you by Gameday Depot.
Animated Drive Chart brought to you by Gameday Depot.
National Unit Rankings
|Rushing Offense||59||166.00||Army||366.10||6||Texas A&M||242.70|
|Passing Offense||75||217.70||Texas Tech||370.00||9||Tennessee||334.00|
|Total Offense||79||383.70||Louisiana Tech||576.50||8||Texas A&M||545.40|
|Scoring Offense||81||25.60||Oregon||54.80||10||Texas A&M||43.10|
|Sacks Allowed||T-70||2.00||Air Force||.30||5||Tennessee||.50|
Offensive observations. Not much offense here. Seems like I could have been saying this for weeks.
|Pass Efficiency Defense||11||105.69||Florida||90.43||4||Florida||90.43|
|Total Defense||23||330.40||Florida St.||242.90||5||Alabama||247.80|
|Tackles For Loss||4||7.90||Stanford||9.10||1||Vanderbilt||7.90|
Defensive observations.Yeah, I really should be cutting and pasting at this point. Not much offense; good defense. Shootout, high noon.
|SPECIAL TEAMS AND TURNOVERS RANKINGS|
|Net Punting||13||40.31||Louisiana Tech||43.13||3||Florida||41.89|
|Punt Returns||69||7.75||Boston College||25.00||7||Missouri||16.17|
|Turnover Margin||93||-.60||Kansas St.||2.00||12||LSU||1.20|
Special teams and turnovers observations. Eh.
Players to Watch
|Passing Efficiency (Min. 15 Att./Game)||Jordan Rodgers||52||135.69|
|Total Offense||Jordan Rodgers||62||223.00|
|Receptions Per Game||Jordan Matthews||15||7.00|
|Receiving Yards Per Game||Jordan Matthews||12||100.30|
Offensive Observations. Nothing much to see here except that we should expect Jordan Matthews to go absolutely all over crazy against our D this weekend. Whether he'll share is the real question.
|Tackles For Loss||Chase Garnham||T-58||1.05|
Defense. While the defense is solid, it doesn't look like there are any superstars here.
|Punting (Min. 3.6 Punts/Game)||Richard Kent||12||44.41|
|Punt Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game)||Jonathan Krause||47||7.95|
|Kickoff Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game)||Brian Kimbrow||75||21.16|
|Field Goals||Carey Spear||T-17||1.50|
|All-Purpose Runners||Jordan Matthews||70||110.60|
Special teams. Okay.