Tennessee vs Arkansas Preview

by Will Shelton on Feb 15, 2012 8:01 AM EST in Tennessee Volunteer Basketball

Here's where we make the distinction between "biggest game of the year" - a title reserved for the likes of Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Florida, or Memphis - and "most important game of the year", a title which fits the next three games quite nicely.

Florida won in Tuscaloosa last night, securing their grip on second place in the league and knocking Alabama back to 5-6. But then those lovable Bulldogs of Mississippi State lost their second straight overtime game, falling in Baton Rouge by a deuce. That means the winner of tonight's game between Tennessee and Arkansas will move into a tie for fourth place in the SEC at 6-5. The notion that the Vols could earn a first round bye in the SEC Tournament isn't misplaced optimism - Tennessee will be right there if they win tonight.

Witness the beauty of UT's schedule: there was a four-way tie for fifth place in the league at 5-5 before Alabama lost last night. The Vols' next three opponents are the other three teams in that tie. At this point, if would be disappointing if Tennessee doesn't go at least 2-1 against Arkansas, Alabama, and Ole Miss, especially with two of the three in Knoxville. And if you want to indulge the NCAA fantasy, the Vols need to go 3-0. Do that, and not only would Tennessee be 8-5 in the SEC (with a trip to 1-9 South Carolina to follow) and have the inside track to a first round bye in New Orleans, but their RPI would increase drastically. It currently sits at 112, but the next three opponents are at 62, 38, and 52. Opportunity is now here.

But to continue the fantasy and the great feeling that's been around this program since the win at Florida, the Vols have to win those games. All of that starts tonight against Arkansas.

College Basketball

First, some history. Tennessee and Arkansas have been playing really good basketball games recently:

2011 SEC Tournament: In Bruce Pearl's final victory, the Vols allowed a 16-0 Arkansas run that tied the game with 2:08 to play. But the Hogs wouldn't score again, and Brian Williams and Melvin Goins helped the Vols secure a 74-68 victory.
2011 Fayetteville: In Tony Jones' first game, the Vols tried to rally from a 13 point deficit, and did have the ball with a chance to tie on the final possession, but fell 68-65 when a Tobias Harris three went begging.
2010 Knoxville: Following the huge upset over #2 Kentucky, the Vols might've been feeling a little too good about themselves. Arkansas cut Tennessee's lead to three with thirteen minutes to play. Then Bruce Pearl got a technical foul, and Tennessee responded with a 10-0 run that would lead to an 80-73 victory. We didn't know it at the time, but this team was two weeks away from becoming our greatest of all time.
2009 Fayetteville: On Lane Kiffin's National Signing Day, Tennessee and Arkansas traded baskets on six consecutive possessions in the final two minutes. A pullup-J by Bobby Maze put the Vols in front with five seconds left, and Arkansas finally missed to secure a 74-72 Tennessee victory.
2008 SEC Tournament: The Tornado Tournament found the Vols and Hogs battling in Georgia Tech's arena in the semifinals, and if you like scoring you loved this game: 17 lead changes, Arkansas shooting 44% and the Vols 45% from the arc, 25 from Lofton, 24 from Tyler Smith, 18 from Juanny...and the Vols still lost on Steven Hill's only basket of the game, a turnaround in the final seconds for a 92-91 Arkansas win that may have cost the Vols a number one seed.

But the most important piece of history for this game is from this season: Arkansas is 17-0 in Fayetteville, 0-8 everywhere else.

And most of these losses aren't really even close:

November 18: Houston 87 Arkansas 78 (Little Rock)
December 3: UConn 75 Arkansas 62
December 10: Oklahoma 78 Arkansas 63
January 11: Ole Miss 71 Arkansas 63
January 17: Kentucky 86 Arkansas 63
January 28: Alabama 72 Arkansas 66
February 4: LSU 71 Arkansas 65
February 8: Georgia 81 Arkansas 59

That last one is especially noteworthy: Georgia averages 61.9 points per game, 293rd nationally and dead last in the SEC. But they shot 52.6% from the floor, 9 of 20 from three, and I know some people think rebounding margin is a throwaway stat, but not when it's 42-20. Again: Georgia.

At home, Arkansas has beaten Mississippi State by ten, had Michigan down twenty in the first half before holding them off 66-64, and beat Vanderbilt just two weeks ago 82-74. But on the road, they're barely competitive against anyone. Arkansas shoots 43.6% from the floor, but just 38.3% on the road.

A huge factor to watch tonight in the first SEC battle between Cuonzo Martin and Mike Anderson: what's the pace of play? Arkansas leads the SEC and is 27th nationally in possessions per game. The Vols play a much slower pace, seventh in the SEC and 215th nationally. Clearly, Arkansas didn't handle slowdown ball well against Georgia. Will Tennessee be disciplined enough to not be seduced into playing an up-tempo game?

Arkansas plays fast, but they only turn it over on 18.4% of their possessions. However, they're 310th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage allowed, probably because they've got guys ready to get out and run instead of crashing the glass. This could be a huge, huge advantage for Tennessee tonight.

Freshman guard B.J. Young leads the way at 14.4 points and 40.4% from three per game. But perhaps the biggest threat is sophomore Mardracus Wade from Memphis, the SEC's leading three point shooter at 49.0%. The guy was 5 for 5 against Georgia, and a lot of good that did, but still...you better guard him.

There's also a size issue here: Arkansas' top five scorers are all 6'5" and under. Jeronne Maymon and Jarnell Stokes, especially if he's healthy, could have a field day inside. It'll be interesting to see if Cuonzo decides to go small and play the Golden-McBee-McRae-Tatum-post lineup against this crew - that's a group that encourages a faster tempo though, so use with caution.

If Tennessee's identity is their defense again, the Vols should be able to frustrate this very young Arkansas team the way they've done Florida and UConn. The Pigs certainly have a complex on the road, and Tennessee has been playing very well at home: 5-1 since conference play began, the only loss a strong effort against Kentucky, four of the five wins coming by double figures, and the other the 60-57 win over UConn. Tennessee knows what they're doing now, and knows how to do it well enough, especially at home, to win a game like this if they play their game and not Arkansas'. I really think that's the biggest thing tonight: keep it slow, play your game, don't get tempted to get out and run. Keep making it about defense, and a team that hasn't won on the road all year shouldn't have enough to get their first one in our house. This team was mature enough to win in Gainesville - we should be mature enough to beat Arkansas in Knoxville.

Tickets are still available - if you're in the area, get out there and support this team's effort. We'll be here live tonight for the open thread, 8:00 PM ET - SEC Network/ESPN3.

Beat Arkansas.

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Comments

So glad Rotnei Clarke isn't there anymore.

For some reason, his presence on the court irritated me.

Currently involved in the relentless pursuit of just being competitive.

by Huge Alien Head on Feb 15, 2012 9:40 AM EST reply actions

Steven Hill

irritated me. Mainly for that 2008 tourny game. Bleh. Heartbreak.

"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti

Follow @DawnBake

by sddbaker on Feb 15, 2012 10:13 AM EST up reply actions

So we need to beat Arkansas?

Well, okay.

Formerly 'snail. You get used to it after a while.

by Chris Pendley on Feb 15, 2012 10:05 AM EST reply actions

I heard, or read, or got it somewhere...Twitter?.....somewhere...

… really all we need to worry right now is beating Arkansas.

Follow @DawnBake

by sddbaker on Feb 15, 2012 10:14 AM EST reply actions

Off topic....

but I just saw an Amazon ad on here featuring the sheet set on my Amazon wish list. Somebody’s watching you!

Also, I used to never see those ads, but Ad-Blocker doesn’t work on Firefox for me now. Any suggestions?

Follow @DawnBake

by sddbaker on Feb 15, 2012 10:20 AM EST reply actions

Beat Arkansas

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Feb 15, 2012 10:21 AM EST reply actions

It sounds weird

but I hope the total score is less than 100. Preferably less than 90. I want this game to have such a slow pace that people on Arkansas bench are falling asleep. If the pace is slow, I feel that UT wins.

It's Great! To be! A Tennessee Vol!

by falconnuke on Feb 15, 2012 10:42 AM EST reply actions

Pomeroy projects UT 71-66 in 70 possessions

We’ve only played a 70+ possession game in regulation five times this year: Duke, Oakland, and in three blowouts (Chaminade,Chattanooga, Auburn).

Rocky Top Talk

by Will Shelton on Feb 15, 2012 10:46 AM EST up reply actions

I don't see it.

maybe 50 possessions, UT 50-44. It definitely won’t be a blowout (but that would be fun).

It's Great! To be! A Tennessee Vol!

by falconnuke on Feb 15, 2012 10:50 AM EST up reply actions

scratch the possessions count vs the score

did not think that through my head very well.

It's Great! To be! A Tennessee Vol!

by falconnuke on Feb 15, 2012 10:50 AM EST up reply actions

I was trying hard to read all that stuff you wrote up above.

But my brain kept interpreting everything as “Beat Arkansas.”

"Do the Titans have a miracle left in them in what has been a magical season to this point? If they do, they need it now. Christie kicks it high and short. Gonna be fielded by Lorenzo Neal at the 25; he dishes it back to Wycheck; he throws it across the field to Dyson. 30, 40, 50, 40, 30, 20, 10, 5, endzone...touchdown, Titans! There are no flags on the field! It's a miracle! Tennessee has pulled a miracle! A miracle for the Titans!"

by TennesseeTyrants on Feb 15, 2012 11:22 AM EST reply actions

as well it should

Beat Arkansas

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Feb 15, 2012 11:23 AM EST up reply actions

Oh I'll indulge that NCAA fantasy!

Oh yes I WILL!

(Which means, UT will inevitably end the season 1-4)

¡Viva La Revolución!

Twitter : @ecuamerican // Media Blog: 42Screens

by ecuamerican on Feb 15, 2012 12:35 PM EST reply actions

Flagged.

lol

by TennesseeTyrants on Feb 15, 2012 12:49 PM EST up reply actions

Dare we allow optimism to creep in? Will our hope be dashed - again ?

He who dares, wins.

Beat Ar-kansas.

Stokes'd about ZoVols - don't care what the record is.

by memphispete on Feb 15, 2012 1:54 PM EST reply actions

Anybody know if the current power outage

On campus will affect the BBall game being played or not tonight? Apparently a main power line was hit today or something causing an outage on part I campus. Neyland Stadium even had some smoke coming out of it. Is the power out in TBA? Anybody heard any details?

by PrideofTheSouthlandFan on Feb 15, 2012 4:11 PM EST via mobile reply actions

UT says no:

Facilities Services expects Thompson-Boling Arena’s power to be restored by 5:30 p.m. Tonight’s men’s basketball game shouldn’t be affected.
— UT Knoxville (@UTKnoxville) February 15, 2012