FanPost

Totally Weird Math

Before spending effort and time telling me how ridiculous these numbers are, allow me to beat you to it. It is flawed. I know it’s flawed. However, whenever I present numbers like this in an official capacity I always use my trump card and remind my audience….look at the numbers as a trend……a trend…..a directional trend only, not as absolute.

The process: simple…..I took the 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010 recruiting classes as ranked by Rivals.com and listed the final national points earned (average) for each SEC team, according to Rival’s star rating system. This allows me a base which is fraught with assumptions. Many recruits "ranked" don’t get in school, they don’t stay in school, they leave early, yadda, yadda ,yadda… My assumption….most teams over a four year will have similar attrition rates.

I use the total Rival "points" for each team since the relative difference between a # 5 team and a # 6 team could be a lot different than the variance between # 11 and # 12, for example. (Not to mention the total point’s value for any numerically ranked class will be different from year to year).

Finally, I fully understand that many critics will challenge the consistency and accuracy of the star rating system. A 2 star or 3 star have and will become All Americans. Some 5 stars become a total bust. I understand. But, what I do know, Alabama has led the Nation in recruiting according to Rivals for the past four years and The Tide seems to be in the thick of the National BCS picture on very regular basis.

So: On with the numbers

This the ranking (Best to Worst) of SEC teams over the past 4 year recruiting period (2013-2010)

2681.75

Alabama

2500.5

Florida

2253.5

Auburn

2172.25

LSU

1972.75

Georgia

1818.5

Tennessee

1662.25

Texas A&M

1632.5

Mississippi

1619

South Carolina

1161.75

Arkansas

1138

Missouri

1118.25

Mississippi State

923.25

Vanderbilt

811

Kentucky

Obviously, it is easy to locate quickly teams that either performed better or worse than the Rivals ratings or the Rivals ratings were very inaccurate. More on that in another post later.

Assuming we consider this the base AND assuming current Rivals commitments to date (12-1-13) which is also understandably a dynamic and changing variable, the following would be the rankings of the next rolling four (4) year cycle.

Alabama

2818

Florida

2199.75

Georgia

2119.5

Auburn

2103

LSU

2040.5

Tennessee

1927

Texas A&M

1833.25

Mississippi

1696.75

South Carolina

1609.25

Arkansas

1298

Vanderbilt

1196.75

Mississippi State

1154.75

Kentucky

1130

Missouri

1114.5

There is a point to this.

One good or bad recruiting class can affect an SEC program, but it also does not mean an automatic and sudden change.

Teams that stand to move UP relative to other programs, however, should this 2014 commitment level hold are: Georgia, Vanderbilt and Kentucky.

Programs that stand to lose ground relatively would be: Auburn, LSU and Missouri.

All other programs would remain unchanged…RELATIVELY speaking.

Tennessee has a brighter future and it hinges on this recruiting cycle. Whether they end up signing all, more or less, I think the Vols improve dramatically. But the competition in the SEC for talent is fierce. However, this should be a reminder to all Vol fans that one good recruiting class will not necessarily be all we need to take us home. Patience will continue to be required, but hope seems to be out there.

Remember: don’t look at the absolute numbers…it’s the TREND….THE TREND…..


FanPosts are most often submitted by users. The views and opinions expressed in FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions held by the editorial staff of Rocky Top Talk or SB Nation.

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