Talking points: email your snail mail now, and watch for a letdown

by Joel on Oct 11, 2007 7:23 AM EDT in Rocky Top Talking Points Comment 2 comments

Last week's crazy talk continues. Doug says his memory of the day just begs to be memorialized in a country song, and Kyle complies. College Football News' Pete Fiutak wonders whether Tennessee can be a superpower again. John Pennington defends his decision to run a game-day column quoting anonymous former players who claimed that the program isn't what it used to be. John Adams says the anonymous former players may need to better inform themselves before launching such a critique.

The Vols just want to put last week behind them. John Chavis is bristling at the incessant questions about Georgia. The coaches want fans to know that they’ve prepared well this week. That J.T. Mapu's back in the groove. That Jerod Mayo's getting the hang of the middle linebacker position. That tight end Chris Brown's cool with his new role as a blocker for the running backs. And that Arian Foster is "fast enough."

That want us to know that this week is a completely different challenge and that they know they need to make the most of their second chance at an SEC East title. They know better than to not give Croom the respect he deserves, but despite the fact everyone knows Croom's going to run the ball, they shouldn't be too hasty in devoting nine of eleven guys to stop it.

So it sounds like we're ready, no? But yikes, courtsey of Inside Tennessee’s Randy Moore, who looks at how the Vols generally follow up huge wins. Frightening:

1999: Tennessee hammers No. 24 Notre Dame 38-14. A week later the third-rated Vols lose 28-24 at unranked Arkansas.

2000: Tennessee annihilates Louisiana-Monroe 70-3. A week later the 11th-ranked Vols lose 38-31 to an unranked LSU team that was coming off a loss to UAB.

2001: Tennessee upsets No. 2 Florida 34-32 at The Swamp in Steve Spurrier's final home game. A week later the second-rated Vols lose 31-20 to LSU in the SEC Championship Game.

2003: Tennessee beats No. 17 Florida 24-10 in Gainesville. A week later the eighth-ranked Vols need an overtime to subdue unranked South Carolina 23-20 in Knoxville.

2004: Tennessee trounces South Carolina 43-29 in Columbia. A week later the ninth-rated Vols lose 17-13 at home to unranked Notre Dame.

2006: Tennessee races to a 35-0 lead and hammers ninth-ranked California 35-18. A week later the 11th-ranked Vols have to hold for dear life to nip Air Force 31-30.

So what do you think? What are the odds we follow up a decimation of Georgia with another dishumiliarrassment?

Off the topic, but did you know you can send snail mail by email? Huh.

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Trend or cherrypicking?

Not having bothered to look up the data myself, I wonder if those examples were simply the cases that best fit the theory, and if there are cases of following up big wins with good performances that went unmentioned. Either way, you can say that UT is reasonably capable of tanking a follow-up performance, whether or not the list is cherry-picked.

I wouldn't consider the LSU loss in 2001 as a hugely underwhelming performance; LSU was really a good team that year. Also, the 2000 LSU loss might be more a function of an LSU team waking up after their own embarrassment.

Also, having grown up in MWC (then WAC) territory and being far too familiar with USAFA's offense, I don't think that the close call last year was a result of letdown. The triple-option gila monster they ran for an offense is very difficult to scheme for within a week's time. Most of the MWC teams and the other service academies play it every year, so they become familiar with it and can usually keep up with it as a result. But, sandwiching USAFA between Cal and Florida prevented the UT staff from spending a whole lot of time on "the Zoomies" (as the MWC teams refer to them).

In short, it was really not a bright move to get that game scheduled the way they did. The Tennessee D had to spend a lot of time waiting to figure out where the ball was, and it caused them to be late to the points of attack. There was really nothing that the staff could do once the game was scheduled; they had to spend time on Cal and UF (and debatably should have won the UF game). It wasn't a case of looking ahead or of being unprepared; it was a case of not having the time to tune the defense to the screwball offense. You'll note that the UT offense performed well against the USAFA defense, so the week after Cal did not hurt the O much.

Most entertaining two moments in that game (besides the final drive): getting to pet the Air Force falcon in the second half, and listening to the fans' disbelief at the effectiveness of the USAFA offense. On point 2 - the fans (I was in the student section) had clearly not bothered to figure out the opponent, or they would have been more nervous at the outset. On point 1 - a falcon is a beautiful animal, and the chance to interact with one should not be passed up. Even as a former Navy guy, I'll freely admit that the USAFA mascot is the best service academy mascot without question.

By the way (and completely off-topic), my undergrad alma (Wyoming) will play here next year for the homecoming game. The Cowboys are improving every year, and absolutely love their current coach, Joe Glenn. Everything seems to indicate that they'll be a good team next year (currently 4-1 and starting to get top 25 consideration) and could put up a good game. With the departure of Ainge, this homecoming game might be closer than what the schedulers expected. Now, Wyoming has a long history of playing good teams closely and then tanking it late, but it might be another MWC scare nonetheless.

I'm thinking of getting a UT and UW jersey to make one of those half-and-half jerseys for the game. Can you imagine the creamsicle/chocolate-n-mustard combination? Yummy!

by Hooper on Oct 11, 2007 2:41 PM EDT reply actions