Tennessee Volunteers v. Kentucky Wildcats: divining the numbers

by Joel on Nov 21, 2007 7:25 AM EST in Tennessee Volunteer Football Comment 1 comment

Thought I'd throw these tables out early again this week rather than be surprised on Saturday.

Tennessee rush v. Kentucky defense	Tennessee pass v. Kentucky defense	Kentucky rush v. Tennessee defense	Kentucky pass v. Tennessee defense
64 (9)	46 (4)	67 (9)	58 (10)
94 (10)	25 (5)	53 (6)	27 (1)

Field Goals	Tennessee punting v. Kentucky punt return	Kentucky punting v. Tennessee punt return	Intangibles
T-12 (3)	40 (4)	47 (4)
T-35 (T-5)	74 (9)	64 (6)

The numbers in parentheses are SEC conference rankings.

This certainly looks like another Run ~~Forrest~~ Foster, run game, as our run against their run defense looks to be the only non-special teams advantage. But there's something interesting about Tennessee's passing game and Kentucky's pass defense: The Vols' rank lower nationally, but higher in the SEC. Hmm.

Schedules:

TENNESSEE
DATE	OPPONENT	RESULT/TIME
09/01	at #12 California	L 45-31
09/08	So Miss	W 39-19
09/15	at #5 Florida	L 59-20
09/22	Arkansas St	W 48-27
10/06	#12 Georgia	W 35-14
10/13	at Miss St	W 33-21
10/20	at Alabama	L 41-17
10/27	#16 S Carolina	W 27-24
11/03	La Lafayette	W 59-7
11/10	Arkansas	W 34-13
11/17	Vanderbilt	W 25-24

KENTUCKY
DATE	OPPONENT	RESULT/TIME
09/01	E Kentucky	W 50-10
09/08	Kent St	W 56-20
09/15	#9 Louisville	W 40-34
09/22	at Arkansas	W 42-29
09/29	FAU	W 45-17
10/04	at #11 S Carolina	L 38-23
10/13	#1 LSU	W 43-37
10/20	#15 Florida	L 45-37
10/27	Miss St	L 31-14
11/10	at Vanderbilt	W 27-20
11/17	at #9 Georgia	L 24-13

Kentucky is 7-4 and Tennessee is 8-3. Common opponents include Florida (both lost), Arkansas (both won), Vanderbilt (both won), Georgia (we won, they lost), Mississippi State (we won, they lost), Steve Spurrier (we won, they lost). Tennessee is trending upward while Kentucky appears to be struggling, but that may have more to do with their respective schedules.

According to GBE College Football Ratings, Kentucky has the 19th toughest schedule. Tennessee's is ranked 39th. (Interesting side note: three SEC East teams are in the top 10 (Florida, Steve Spurrier, and Georgia).

So. What do y'all see in the numbers?

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Trench War

I was at at the Arkansas/Kentucky game.

Arkansas got first blood, but after that kentucky all but manhandeled them.

The QB was patient, took his time, and made connections. instead of going for big gains he kept pace and momentum with short passes.

The run game wasn't a huge factor, but they used it enough to keep the defense off balance.

Tennessee more recently has had success with their run game. Ainge hasn't been doing quite as well as his early season self.

Offensive Line is still getting it done well, and our defense is still a 50/50 proposition. When they play ball, they play good. When they don't, well lets leave it at that.

I'm going with Tennessee overall because frankly I want us to win. But I think in the end, if we play like last week, this will be a trench war. if we play like 2 weeks ago, it will be a blow out with the Vols as the victor.

Gimmie Tennessee. 24 to 21.

"Gentlemen, it is better to have died as a small boy than to fumble this football." John Heisman

by BloodSpite on Nov 21, 2007 11:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs