SEC East prediction time

Pre-season predictions are the sports writer's equivalent of an entertainment writer making top ten lists, or a political writer predicting election results: a cheap trick designed to simultaneously make friends and enemies to drive up readership. Everybody knows they're B.S.... a weak and pathetic cop-out that continues to pass for insight, shelter for the unimaginative, a gimmick used to justify an unjustifiable existence.

And yet, nobody can resist making them. Which brings us to this post, and several others I've written before.

Last year, I predicted South Carolina would win the SEC East. And I was wrong. The beauty of pre-season predictions, and what makes them so cheap and pathetic, is that if you're wrong you can shrug your shoulders and say "everybody gets them wrong." When you're right, you can wave your wang around and demand that everyone in the room bask in its shimmering light.

I'm throwing a twist in this year which will make me look smarter and be an even bigger cop-out than a standard predictions list would be. I'm going to do the programmers thing and base my predictions on if-then-else statements for each team's first big game of the year.

Marvel at my bet-hedging ability, listed from last-to-first according to last year's finish:

Vanderbilt

First big game: vs. Alabama, Sept. 7

If (Vanderbilt = winner) then:
They'll probably go to a bowl. They still have a brutal slate remaining that includes Ole Miss, Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee and Wake Forest (who snuck into the ACC title game last year). But the momentum from winning this game might carry them through an extra one or two wins.

Else:
They'll likely be 1-1 going into a game with Ole Miss, a team with Zookitis (great recruiting, not much coaching). If the Bammers hand Vandy their asses, Ole Miss could sneak up on them to leave them at 1-2 heading into the other games. Probably no bowl for Vandy at that point.

South Carolina

First big game: Sept. 8 at Georgia

If (South Carolina = winner) then:
South Carolina still has a chance to win the SEC East title despite a (here's that word again) brutal schedule. It has to beat at least two of the big three in the East to contend, as a thumpin' from LSU is the next conference game on the schedule and Vandy and Kentucky won't be gimmes for anybody.

Else:
South Carolina is relegated to spoiler in the East.

Kentucky

First big game: vs. Louisville Sept. 15

If (Kentucky = winner) then:
They'll likely be 3-0 heading into the first away game at Arkansas, a team with the best runningback in the country but which also could be heading for disaster due to off-season turmoil. No matter how bad Arkansas is, I'm betting they'll still be trouble for the Wildcats. A win over their in-state rival might give them the boost in confidence necessary to beat Arkansas, or it might lead to a let-down.

Else:
Kentucky's schedule is so bottom-heavy that I don't think the Louisville game will define their season from a momentum standpoint. However, a loss would make the road to a bowl game pretty tough, though not impossible.

Georgia

First big game: Sept. 1 vs. Oklahoma State

If (Georgia = winner) then:
I think Georgia's season will depend more on early momentum than any other team in the East. They have a young defense that will probably be lit up for close to 500 yards in this game, but they also ought to be able to run the ball enough to win and get some clutch passes from Matthew Stafford when they need them. A win here would carry them into the South Carolina game with confidence, which they will need this year if they're going to win that one. South Carolina's talent is on par with the big three.

Else:
Georgia went into a tailspin last year after the Tennessee game for a few games before rebounding to salvage the season from being a 2005 Tennessee-level disaster. A loss to Oklahoma State might leave the Bulldogs with their heads in the wrong place, which I think would lead to another confidence-shattering loss against South Carolina. That cycle could continue two games later at Alabama, by which time they'd be relegated to a spoiler role against either Tennessee or Florida. No team has a more important opener.

Tennessee

First big game: Sept. 1 at Cal

If (Tennessee = winner) then:
People will start talking about Tennessee as a national title contender, which will immediately go to their heads and cause them to lose at home to Southern Miss the following week. Sort of like how they almost lost to Air Force last year after putting the lumber on Cal in the opener.

Else:
Maybe they don't overlook Southern Miss, and have their heads in the right place for their annual prison yard match with Florida on Sept. 15.

Florida

First big game: Sept. 15 vs. Tennessee

If (Florida = winner) then:
They will have proven the The Ohio State University theory that a team can still win games after losing nine starters on defense. And they probably walk to the SEC East title, especially if Georgia stumbles early.

Else:
Tennessee has the clear path to the East title, particularly if Georgia stumbles early.

Bonus: predicted finish

Since I know most pre-season predictions are B.S. and also don't turn out to be true, I'm going to exercise some reverse psychology/wishful thinking here:

1. Vanderbilt
2. Kentucky
3. Georgia
4. Florida
5. South Carolina
6. Tennessee