I am excited about the annual prison yard match between Tennessee and Florida coming up this weekend, though it's hard to be optimistic about Tennessee's chances given the performance in the first two games. My favorite thing that's happened in Hate Week so far is this quote from Florida coach Urban Meyer:

"I have great respect for their personnel," Meyer said. "They are definitely a top-five personnel group, there is no question."

"They don't overwhelm you with scheme, but with personnel" is my favorite coach speak phrase. It's a subtle dig that implies "we have no respect for your coaching ability" without actually saying that.

The only thing I really have to go by leading into this game is past performance, which indicates this will probably be a close, ugly game. But it could get out of hand quickly if Florida stops the run early, as Tennessee has been very un-Tennessee-like in that department the past few years. The offensive line actually looks like it could be improved at run blocking this year, but the coaches have been giving up on the run earlier than in past seasons since David Cutcliffe became OC.

If NCAA 2008 on my Xbox 360 is any indication, Florida's offense is going to put up about 550 yards, with 250 of them on the ground. That offense is fun to run, and when I play as Florida my tailback averages about 17 yards per carry.

You can just run that QB option all day, look for where the linebackers are cheating, and run the opposite direction with the tailback or Baby Rhino. Sometimes you'll lose five yards, but then you can just pick up 15 on the next play. Throw a pass every fifth or sixth play, and it'll probably go for 30 yards since the safeties will be cheating up by then. Audible to a run if they're not creeping up. If they stack the line on a called run, audible to a tight end option, get your five yards, and live to fight another day.

When I play as Tennessee, it's easy to throw for 300 yards, but 100 on the ground is a struggle. The offense is pretty accurate in Tennessee's case at least, as I end up throwing to the fullbacks and tight ends and slot receivers on underneath routes a lot until the safeties creep up, then I can bust them on corner routes and slants from the slot receivers. But the running game is vanilla, without a lot of effective misdirection.

So, back to real life, both of the defenses are suspect. Like everyone else, I'm expecting at least 35 points out of both offenses, and 300 yards out of both quarterbacks. I think the difference is Tennessee's run defense is softer, and they'll abandon the run too early if they get down.