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Some perspective on three-star players

Here's what everybody and their mother will be talking about this morning, Tennessee's class of 2008:

PLAYER

Pos.

Ht. 
Wt
40
Rivals Stars
Rivals Pos. Rank
Rivals State Rank
Scout Stars
Scout Pos. Rank
Gerald Williams LB 6-4 245 4.55 4 NR NR 1 JC
E.J. Abrams-Ward ATH 6-5 210 4.6 4 11 1 4 8
Aaron Douglas TE 6-6 245 4.9 4 5 2 4 16
Marlon Walls LB 6-2 225 4.55 4 22 6 3 14
Preston Bailey OL 6-5 315 - 3 32 7 3 30
Casey Kelly QB 6-2 191 4.6 3 17 81 3 20
Tauren Poole RB 5-10 194 4.65 3 16 25 3 41
Prentiss Waggner DB 6-2 170 4.51 3 33 17 3 86
Rodriguez Wilks WR 6-1 195 4.56 3 63 6 3 75
Willie Bohannon DE 6-3 230 4.7 3 22 27 3 84
Steven Fowlkes DE 6-5 213 4.65 3 19 48 3 29
Dallas Thomas OL 6-6 253 - 3 54 26 3 35
Ben Bartholomew RB 6-3 225 - 3 7 16 3 8
Austin Johnson RB 6-3 235 4.65 3 10 23 3 20
Herman Lathers LB 6-0 192 - 3 43 36 3 27
Carson Anderson OL 6-3 270 - 2 NR NR 3 53
Montori Hughes DT 6-5 255 - 2 NR NR 3 49
StePhaun Raines DB 6-0 180 4.4 1 NR NR 2 JC

That there is the 36th best recruiting class in the nation and the 6th best in the SEC. Alabama (#1), Florida (#3), Georgia (#6), LSU (#11), and Auburn (#20) are all ahead of us, per Rivals.

According to Scout, Tennessee had the 35th best class nationally and the 9th best in the SEC with Alabama (#1), Georgia (#4), LSU (#6), Florida (#12), Auburn (#19), Arkansas (#23) (!), Mississippi State (#33) (!!), and South Carolina (#34) (!) all ahead of the Vols.

Trev is not impressed. Nor is Brian, who dubs Tennessee's class of 2008 the nation's most disappointing:

Hey, at least Iowa and Michigan State don't pretend to be national powers. Tennessee does, but they won't be for much longer if they keep up this recruiting pace. The other UT has 18 commitments and only four four-stars, none among the top 100, and one of those is a JUCO who will only provide two years of service. Tennessee struck out on every major target it swung at despite a surprising season that garnered an SEC championship game berth and a New Year's Day bowl victory.

The departures of renowned QB guru David Cutcliffe (for a death job at Duke) and his right-hand man Trooper Taylor contributed to the off year, but the end result at UT (#37) is something no program that considers itself elite should ever see on signing day. Fulmer may have staved off an axing this year; the long term trend is not good.

It's pretty hard to argue the point right now, isn't it? Perhaps losing Trooper Taylor was not the second biggest disappointment of 2007 but the first. Maybe we should have devoted more time to recruiting the recruiter.

But be careful, Tennessee fans. The negativity accompanying the downs of the roller coaster 2007 season may or may not have scared away some recruits, but Fulmer's Belly is right to note that a sour fan base likely diminishes a program's ability to lure blue chip recruits to campus. So do like Fulmer's Belly did and welcome these guys to campus instead of telling them you really wanted someone else. Besides, we've had some great success with three-star players in the past. Some notables:

2007: Dennis Rogan

2006: Daniel Lincoln, Quintin Hancock

2005: Lucas Taylor, Antonio Wardlow, Dan Williams, Josh Briscoe, Austin Rogers

2004: Chris Brown, Jerod Mayo, Erik Ainge, Jonathan Hefney, Anthony Parker, Arian Foster

2003: Brad Cottam, Britton Colquitt

Some of those former three-star recruits will be playing in the NFL next year, and some of them either left or could have left early to do so. And don't forget the class of 2007, highly-ranked and half now with significant experience. We'll be fine.

0 recs  |  Comment 13 comments

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3 (or 4) Word Summary
(You didn't really think I could respond in 3 (or) 4 words, did you?!  Hold on, and let me make my point!  You'll see where I'm going!)

Those who are worried about this class, and more broadly--the future success of Tennessee football, are also those who have an irrational belief that recruiting class rankings directly impact on the field success.  One may recall a few weeks back where I pointed to (and questioned) an analysis by SMQ relating recruiting class rankings to a team's winning percentage.  Lo and behold, Tennessee was labeled as an "Underachiever" between the years 2002-2007.  Over that time period they had an average recruiting class ranking of 10.2 (9th best in the NCAA) and a 0.603 winning percentage vs. BCS opposition (19th best in the NCAA).  In a snapshot of this time period, we hauled in the #4 recruiting class in 2005.  Man, were we loaded.  A new class of young studs entering a stable chocked full of talented veterans.  We were poised for a run to the MNC.  Then it happened...TSOWWDNS.  `Nuff said.

[scarcasm]
Oh, Notre Dame didn't do too bad over the 2007 season either.  You know, considering their last two recruiting classes were each ranked #8!
[/scarcasm]

It's been said time and time again that recruiting rankings (e.g., 'stars') are simply one's opinion (informed or otherwise) of how that athlete will fare at the collegiate level.  We've seen 5-Stars totally tank for a multitude of reasons, but also have seen 1-Stars and even walk-ons accomplish great things.

I have much respect for Brian and all that he has done, and continues to do, for the CFB blogosphere.  However, I think this particular set of comments is a bit hypocritical in nature, regardless of my opinion on Tennessee's present state of elite-ness.  While I'm not going to get into the debate of the definition of an "elite" team, I will throw out a few bombs as an explicit-countermeasure, with respect to the current state of elite-ness of the Michigan program -- elite teams do not loose to a Division 1-AA team;  let alone, at home nor do elite teams yield a single victory over their most-hated rival since 2001.  There.  I feel better.

Maybe this year that that law of averages catches up to us and a trend is reversed?  I don't know about you, but I'd much rather tote around the SMQ-assigned label of "Overachiever" by having a 30-something recruiting class with a Top-10 (Top-5?) finish to the season.

As the title of this post suggests, there is a concise statement that should be resonating throughout Big Orange Country this morning.  It was penned by a true Volunteer fan who just so happens to be the care-taker of this blog:

"We'll be fine."

Go Vols!

by Aerobab on Feb 7, 2008 10:08 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

How do you
"loose" to a team?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Just playin'
Go Vols!

by gramsey712 on Feb 7, 2008 10:39 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Point/counterpoint
I agree that a single isolated top 10 vs. top 50 recruiting class isn't anything to get worked up about. Five star recruits often flop, two star recruits peak late and turn into studs, etc. It's a vague barometer at best.

That said...

It is the best barometer we have presently.

One off year in the middle of a coaching change isn't a big deal and doesn't worry me in the least. A pattern of #35 classes over the next three or four years would be a problem though.

I'm excited about watching next year. The schedule is softer than it's been in a few years, and there's a lot of talent coming back. For better or for worse, I think we're wiping the slate clean with our rivals (this is a good thing for Florida, perhaps not so great with Georgia, whom Cutcliffe owned).

If they win 9 or 10 games next year, recruiting won't be a problem with the anxiety about new staff out of the way.

Visit the Georgia Podcast Network to find Georgia's best podcasts in one place.

by rustytanton on Feb 7, 2008 10:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sorta
Like I alluded to, even a pattern of #35 recruiting classes is not bothersome to me, so long as the wins and hopeful subsequent championships keep rolling in.

by Aerobab on Feb 7, 2008 10:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Trev
Also, these comments can be passed on to The Trev.

by Aerobab on Feb 7, 2008 10:47 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Trying to keep perspective
It's still perhaps a bit too close to NSD to really try to step back and take a big view, but why not try, eh?

As far as rankings go - the existence of groups like Scout and Rivals does depend at least partly on their ability to assess the talent and figure out where the potential lies.  If you go through their lists, you can generally see where the 4- and 5-star guys appear to be physical beasts, and where the 1- and 2-star guys, while quite talented, might not have that added spark.  Since they can't determine if that spark will come, the rankings seem to be a relatively reasonable grouping of the national talent.  It's a really, really inexact science: determining who has more potential between a linebacker in California versus a linebacker in Vermont (and so on) isn't easy, and they won't get them all right.  Still, there is some value to the concept, and they do a reasonable job, all things considering.

As we all know, once you have the talent on your team, then it's a matter of development and training.  That is a debate that will be answered in due time (i.e. the next few years), so I'll leave it alone.  Besides, we have a lot of new staff on board, and we'll need to see how they develop talent before we can make good guesses to the future anyhow.

However, there are a lot more factors to a class than numbers and stars.  For example, UT already has a lot of positions filled: the 07 and 05 classes are rather large and loaded.  Just like after the 05 class, when the 06 class was a little thinner, we see the same trend after the 07 class.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the same thing happen at Alabama next year (though probably not as drastic).  We may be developing a cycle where we get more players on odd years and they get more on even years.  So long as it doesn't get so imbalanced that filling scholarships becomes problematic, that's not necessarily a bad thing.

So, while we UT fans would like to say that the stars don't matter, that's not entirely true.  They do matter, but they're not absolute certainties.  For example, there's little doubt that Pryor has more potential than most other QBs on the market, though we don't know if he'll develop into it yet.  Also, having a small class matters only in the context of what UT already has.  We have a lot of players, and we didn't need much more.  We could have used a few more D-liners and perhaps a couple more O-liners for depth, but we'll still have a good team on the field.  Our only real concern will be our injury situation.  It wouldn't take many line injuries to become catastrophic.

One last note: if the team performs well under the new coaches, we'll be primed for a great class next year.  The 05 class will depart, and there'll be plenty of room for scholarships.  Additionally, teams who sign a ton of talent this year (think number of players first, then stars) like Bama, Miami, and FSU, will be in a much more difficult position to sell playing time.

So, let's just wait and see.

(There's more to say, but I tend to write too much in a single post as it is, so I'll cut it here.)

by Hooper on Feb 7, 2008 10:31 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

IT'S NOT IN THE STARS
Hey folks this is a GREAT class. What I like best is that they all want to play for TENNESSEE. I agree with pretty much what everyone else has said. STARS don't win games, players do. We can bad mouth them now, but lets take another look at them four years from now, Some will be going to the NFL, and some won't. But for now they are all ORANGE and play for TENNESSEE and I give them my full support."I WILL GIVE MY ALL FOR TENNESSEE TODAY" !!! More News To Come.  OLD SMOKEY   GO VOLS !!!!
OLD SMOKEY

by old smokey on Feb 7, 2008 12:58 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

false
Eric Ainge and jerod mayo were not 3 star recruits.Ainge was one of the top qb's in the country and mayo was a 4 or 5 star player!!!!!!!

by govols25 on Feb 7, 2008 6:04 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Clarification.
Erik Ainge was a 3-star according to Scouts, and a 4-star according to Rivals.

The same is true for Jerod Mayo for both Scouts and Rivals.

So, both can rightly be called 3-star guys, and both can lay claim to the higher claims as well.  Either way, they weren't projected at the bottom of the heap and they weren't in Pryor land either.

by Hooper on Feb 7, 2008 6:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah
The point is that those guys weren't all caps WOO!!! guys when they signed, either (though not shabby), but they turned out pretty well.
Go Vols!

by Joel on Feb 7, 2008 9:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, and . . .
Erik (with a k) was only the 26th best QB in the nation according to Scout.
Go Vols!

by Joel on Feb 7, 2008 9:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Aw,
but 26 out of the thousands of high school QBs in any given year is good.  ;)

by Hooper on Feb 7, 2008 9:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yep
But more like several of our new 3-star guys than like Pryor or Mallett or Jimmy Clausen.
Go Vols!

by Joel on Feb 7, 2008 10:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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