I have been running some numbers lately on upsets in games between two SEC opponents. I have restricted it to just the past five seasons for reasons I'll get into in a later piece, but it has to do with limited data availability more than anything else.

Since what constitutes an upset can be subjective, I have defined upsets using the following assumptions:

1. You are what your record says you are.

I bring out this old chestnut from Bill Parcells to say that teams' final records are what I used to judge them. Specifically, it was their win total for the year. I know that it's not always an accurate way to gauge the difference between teams since their non-conference and inter-division slates can differ.

However, no one in the league generally kills themselves in their non-conference scheduling, and division opponents rotate while the quality of the teams varies as well. It's fairly random, and I can accept that.

2. Teams with the same final win count plus or minus one are basically the same.

Is there really a difference between two six win teams? How about a six win team and a five win team? Or a six and a seven win team? Of course there is because no two teams are identical, but chance does play a role in football.

If teams are within one win of each other, then I say the difference between them is not significant enough to call one winning over the other an upset. When teams that are within a win of each other played, I classified those games as tossups. It is only from the mismatches, where the difference of the final win totals of the two teams was two or greater, that I classified games as upsets.

These are not perfect rules, but I think they are acceptable compromises. You have to draw the line somewhere because analyzing every game is not feasible.

Overall

In the 225 SEC mismatch games of the past five full seasons, there were 22 upsets. That is 9.78% of them, so about one in every ten SEC mismatches turns into an upset. There was no real pattern as to whether home favorites or road favorites got upset, as 12 of them were home favorites losing and 10 were road favorites losing.

Most people think of upsets as always being close, last-minute wins by the lesser team against the better team. That is not really the case, as only 12 of the 22, or 54.55%, of the games were decided by a touchdown or less. Essentially, that's random.

Despite the conference being known for parity (i.e. teams "beating each other up"), fewer than a quarter (23.47%) of the conference games were tossups. In addition, only 2007 saw more than four real upsets:

The low of two upsets in 2004 is largely due to Auburn going undefeated. When the conference champion loses, it's almost always via upset according to my accounting methods here. Therefore, an undefeated champ (2004) will cause there to be a lower number of upsets, and a two loss champ (2007) will cause there to be a higher number.

The other culprit causing 2007 to have more upsets was South Carolina. Early wins over eventual eight-win teams Kentucky and Mississippi State count as upsets because the Gamecocks collapsed to a 6-6 final record.

You could argue whether they were truly upsets or not, considering how hot SC was at the beginning of the year, but you can't really measure "hot" objectively and as I said you have to draw the line somewhere. I can't discount those games without analyzing every other one. No thanks.

Frequent Upset Participants

Some teams are more likely to be involved in upsets. If you're a Florida fan like me, you're probably nodding your head and for good reason: the Gators head up the list along with Kentucky and South Carolina.

6 Upsets: Florida (3 wins, 3 losses), Kentucky (3 wins, 3 losses), South Carolina (5 wins, 1 loss)

5 Upsets: Georgia (1 win, 4 losses)

4 Upsets: LSU (0 wins, 4 losses)

3 Upsets: Auburn (2 wins, 1 loss), Miss St. (2 wins, 1 loss), Tennessee (1 win, 2 losses), Vanderbilt (2 wins, 1 loss)

2 Upsets: Alabama (1 win, 1 loss), Arkansas (1 win, 1 loss)

1 Upset: Ole Miss (1 win)

You can thank Ron Zook for Florida being at the top, as four of UF's upset games were under his watch. At least he had a 3 wins/1 loss ratio, though the one loss was the game that got him fired. Urban Meyer presided over two upset games, and both were losses (South Carolina 2005, Auburn 2006).

Kentucky finds itself up there thanks to dueling with fellow traditional bottom-three teams of the SEC East South Carolina and Vanderbilt. It has an upset win over and an upset loss to Vandy and two upset losses to South Carolina. The only other series of games with more than one upset was Florida and Georgia. Upset wins over Arkansas (2002) and LSU (2007) round out the Wildcats' slate.

I have covered South Carolina's existence at the top fairly well.

I bet folks would have expected Mississippi State to be involved in more upsets, given Sly Croom's reputation, but the two games where an opposing coach got Croomed (Zook in '04, Shula in '06) were the school's only two true upset wins. Same goes for Arkansas, since Houston Nutt has a reputation for winning a game he shouldn't every year. Turns out the upset win over LSU last year was his only true upset of the last five seasons.

Ole Miss' win over South Carolina in 2004 marks the only upset it has been involved in over the past five seasons. Under David Cutcliffe and Ed Orgeron, the Rebels won the games they should have won and lost the games they should have lost. Score one for Nutt in 2008 though if Ole Miss fails to finish within one win of UF this season, an overwhelmingly likely scenario.

A Preview of Coming Attractions

Considering that Alabama dropped in both the BlogPoll and SEC Power Poll this week, folks apparently weren't overly impressed by the Tide's narrow overtime win over LSU. When the opposing quarterback throws four picks, one of them for a touchdown, and you only win by six in overtime, you're not going to impress a lot of people.

But it was on the road! But it was in Tiger Stadium! But it was the Saban Bowl!

Alabama will finish with greater than one win more than the Tigers, and that's likely true even if the hosts had won, so an LSU win would have been an upset on my parameters. That made Alabama a true road favorite.

For games that have been kicked off between 3:30 and 5:45 (inclusive) over the past five seasons, road favorites have a .913 winning percentage. Alabama had a better than 90% chance of winning based on that, and it took them to overtime to seal the deal.

The overall attitude of not being overly impressed is probably justified. Alabama should win that game nine out of 10 times under the circumstances. They didn't give a performance that meshes with that stat. Now in games with a road favorite, the probability of a close game is 56.52%. That lets them off the hook some since it was slightly better that pure chance that a close game would occur.

But seriously... four picks, one a pick-six, and you need overtime to beat an overmatched team? Well, I suppose three turnovers of your own and two missed field goals will make that happen. Sometimes you don't need fancy stats to diagnose a game.

It's official - Phil Fulmer is leaving Tennessee at the end of the season.

I knew this news was coming, yet I didn't fully believe it would happen until the word came down today. He was by far the dean of SEC coaches and he's been a Tennessee Man all his life. He brought the Big Orange a national title and two conference titles along with 150 wins. Only General Neyland himself has more in UT history.

Fulmer, along with Bobby Bowden, is one of the two great villains of my youth. He is one of just two rival coaches to bring home a national title in my lifetime, and he gave Florida an absolutely crushing defeat in 2001. Georgia and Auburn coaches came and went and LSU was no threat, but Fulmer was there and he was a winner.

Here's the thing though: I don't think I ever truly hated Phillip Fulmer. He was an easy target for mockery, from the "Can't spell Citrus without UT" line to the Krispy Kreme jokes to his players' frequent off-the-field issues. I can't ever remember him condoning the injuring of other players like Bowden tacitly did, and he often took the high road in public disputes.

Loyalty doesn't begin to describe the guy. I can never remember hearing Fulmer's name attached to any other coaching job, college or pro. He played, was an assistant coach at, and and was head coach at UT. His assistants have almost never had to worry about losing their jobs. I'd even be willing to bet that David Cutcliffe, a guy who probably knows Fulmer better than any coach other than John Chavis, would tell you in private he wouldn't have taken the Duke job had he known the new offense this year would lead to Fulmer's departure.

Fulmer was a pivotal character in the growth of the SEC into the premier conference as college football has really hit the big time over the past couple of decades. He and Steve Spurrier kept the conference afloat in the national power rankings during an era when Georgia, Auburn, and LSU were going through troubles and Alabama was only periodically good. His Vols continued to be competitive and relevant for much of this decade too, winning the SEC East three times. He was even better about playing outside the region than just about anyone else in the conference, frequently scheduling road games at places like Notre Dame and Pac-10 schools.

Ultimately, he has not been living up to the standard he created for the program lately. The level that Tennessee attained means that two non-winning seasons in four years will get any coach shown the door. It is usually the guy who follows the legend who gets caught by high expectations, the Ron Zook and (soon to be) Ron Prince types, but Fulmer stayed around long enough to be that guy himself.

It is a shame that someone who won 150 games at one school cannot leave it on his own terms. Tennessee football is a bigger part of his life than any school is to any other active coach not named Paterno. Watching the press conference even made me feel a little emotional, because I could tell he was hurting so badly. There are no winners in cases like these.

So long, Phil. You were a credit to your university and one of the guys who enabled the conference to reach its lofty status. This Gator wishes you well in your life after coaching, and may the fish in the Tennessee River quake at the sound of your voice.

The BCS standings have just come out, and Alabama is 2nd, Georgia is 7th, Florida is 10th, and LSU is 13th. All of these teams have a shot, whether good or remote, of making the title game if they win out.

The overall sentiment this season is that, if no one goes undefeated and these are available, the one-loss Big 12 champion and the one-loss SEC champion will play for the title. These two are clearly the best conferences in the land, and the conventional wisdom goes that their champions should be rewarded for it.

Now I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again here: the champion of the toughest conference may not automatically be the best team. A better team could exist in a weaker conference. However the past two seasons have shown that the "most deserving team" argument is going to win over the "best team" in today’s climate, and coming out of the toughest conference with the same number of losses than someone from a weaker conference makes you more deserving.

Because the SEC is one of those top two in the perception ranks, all anyone but the Tide really need is to have Penn State lose and most everything will take care of itself, and Alabama is still in if they lose a game outside Atlanta. Even so, if you want to leave no doubt of your team's chances to make the title game, here’s your rooting guide for the rest of the season arranged by conference.

Non-BCS Teams

Thanks to BYU’s loss, there isn’t a non-BCS team that can plausibly make the title game. In theory BYU might have been able to sneak in because they began the year relatively high in the polls, they have wins over two Pac-10 schools, and they’ve won a national title in the past. 

TCU made that unlikely scenario moot.

ACC and Big East

None of these teams have a shot, so continue to root for or against teams as you normally should. Some have tried to make the case that the Gators need to root for Miami and FSU to prop up their resume, or that Georgia should root for Georgia Tech, but being from the SEC means those ACC teams don’t really mean anything. 

And really, Florida root for Miami or FSU? Georgia root for GT? Unless they are playing a team ahead of Florida/Georgia in the polls at the end of the season only, there’s no reason ever to. Please.

Big 12

It doesn’t really matter what goes on here, because there’s no way that both title game slots end up with Big 12 teams. Honestly I don’t think anyone left on Texas’ schedule plays enough defense to beat them, so worrying about this league is more or less a waste of time. 

If you want to be absolutely sure, then root for every team to have at least two losses. That’s not very likely, of course. If you have a mischievous streak, then root for Oklahoma to win out and Texas to somehow lose to Baylor. OU would finish higher in the polls, but they will not have even won their division.

Big Ten

It’s very simple: root for Ohio State to beat Penn State. A one-loss Big Ten champ will not be ahead of a one-loss Big 12 or SEC champ at the end, so as long as the Nittany Lions lose to someone (Ohio State? At Iowa? Michigan State?), then we’re set. 

After this weekend though, root for Ohio State to lose to Northwestern and/or Illinois. They’re by far the best win on USC’s resume, so if the Buckeyes fall they will tug down on USC too.

Pac-10

USC obviously is the only title contender from this conference, and quite simply another loss will do them in. The computer formulas already hate them, and none of their wins the rest of the way will gain them any favor with the algorithms. A sinking Ohio State would also hurt. 

Something Lisa Horne brought up is that if both USC and Oregon State win out, then the Beavers will win the tiebreaker and get the Rose Bowl berth as Pac-10 champion. Technically USC and OSU will be recognized as co-champions by the conference, but human voters look at tiebreakers and will recognize the guys from Corvallis as the sole champ. Then, the Trojans will have the "didn’t win their conference" argument working against them.

SEC

The only concern within the conference is hoping that the four heavyweights don’t get upset a lot by (any more) weaker teams and bring down the perception of the league some. I don’t know how much that will happen, and it would take an awful lot for people to come to the conclusion that the Pac-10 or Big Ten are better conferences this season. 

Alabama, being undefeated just has to win out. Roll Tide. If they take a loss, they just need to make sure it’s not in Atlanta and they’re golden. Georgia-Florida is about the only other big matchup that matters to them, and they would need to root for the Bulldogs since they already beat them but do not play Florida. Then again, beating a one-loss UF team on the final weekend would look good. In other words, just root for who you hate least.

Georgia just needs to win out. Nothing fancy, just win them all. It would be a bonus if the SEC title game was a win over Alabama to avenge for the early season beat down, but it's not necessary. Having Florida beat FSU couldn't hurt.

Since Florida controls its destiny also, all the Gators must do is win out too. Having Georgia beat Georgia Tech wouldn't hurt.

LSU needs the most help thanks to being the lowest-ranked, but their 2003 title team began out of the top 10 in the initial BCS poll too. Florida over FSU and Georgia over GT would be nice insurance policies.

Either UGA or LSU will be bowing out of the national title hunt this weekend, with potentially another one going out the weekend after when Florida and Georgia play. Then you have the Alabama-LSU game the week after that.

No more than two will make it out of these next three weeks with their national title hopes alive. This is a critical stretch in SEC football coming up.

You read that right. I said Alabama has a 50% chance of making the BCS Championship Game. At least, that is what history tells us.

Have a look at one of the handy sidebars to this USA Today column. Every season except one in the BCS era has seen either No. 1 or No. 2 in the first BCS poll of the year make the national title game. The lone exception is the first year, 1998, but that is made up for by 2005 having both No. 1 USC and No. 2 Texas make the title game.

So, we can take a look at the newly minted BCS standings and see Alabama at No. 2 behind everyone's No. 1 (computers included), Texas. Georgia is the next SEC team ranked at No. 7, thanks to the computers loving the Dawgs (they have them No. 6 instead of No. 9 like the humans) and not being that high on a couple other teams like Texas Tech.

Another team the computers don't like? Florida. The Gators are No. 6 and No. 7 in the human polls but are 12 according to the computers. Two of the formulas don't even have Florida in the top 15 of their rankings.

As I understand it, the computer formulas in general look less favorably on home losses like UF's than road losses like USC's and Ohio State's. USC, OSU, and Georgia also all lost to teams in the current top 10 rather than to the best 3-4 team in college football, Ole Miss. The good news for the Gators is that they are just .1061 out of fifth place, they'll get a nice computer bump from playing Georgia (should they win), and the Big 12 teams ahead of them largely still have yet to play each other.

No matter how you slice it though, Alabama has a leg up on everyone in the country except the Longhorns, especially since Penn State is a lot closer to No. 4 Oklahoma than the No. 2 Tide.

The only other SEC team ranked in the top 25 is No. 13 LSU.

Something I put together last season that I'm doing again is a statistical strength of schedule ranking. The full rationale and national breakdown is over at my home base, but here's the way it works.

Take the average national rank of the teams a school has played so far in four categories: total and scoring offense and defense. Then average those four numbers together to get a score. The lower the score the better. Also, I-AA teams automatically get ranks of 120 in all categories.

Since this is an SEC blog, I'm only going to go over only teams in our fair league. Here's how everything works out:

Continue reading this post »

Tommy Bowden has been fired at Clemson, something no one thought would happen back during the off season. Partly it was because the Tigers were everyone's ACC favorite, and partly because he just signed a new extension with a hefty buyout.

SB Nation alumnus Dr. Saturday has a fairly exhaustive rundown of the breaking news, and I put together a fairly exhaustive look at Bowden's record during the off season. Basically, it's been almost a decade and nothing has changed. It's a minor miracle he lasted this long.

So why do we care in the SEC? Because Vanderbilt head coach Bobby Johnson's name will be floating around a lot when it comes to this job. It already has, in fact, well before this week. He is a Clemson graduate, and with his team's hot start (four consecutive weeks ranked for the first time ever), his profile has been raised considerably.

I don't know enough about him to say whether he'd leave or not; you'll have to hit up our Commodore comrades around the net to find out. He seems like a great guy though, and if he gets a payday I will feel great for him. I will say though, it's rare to have your prospects of getting a bigger-name job go up the week after losing to Mississippi State, but that's where we are with him.

Another name being floated around is former Auburn defensive coordinator (and former Georgia safety before that) Will Muschamp, the guy who just helped engineer Texas' big win over Oklahoma. Either one, Johnson or Muschamp, would probably be an upgrade.

Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville said speculation about dissension on his staff is just "Internet talk" and that the offensive coaches are committed to working with coordinator Tony Franklin to turn the season around...

Tuberville said Sunday that changes to the offensive staff were "not even talked about." He said Franklin works harder and is more disappointed than anyone about the offense's poor performance.

"He takes probably more blame than he should," Tuberville said.

-Evan Woodbury, The Auburn Beat, on October 5

"After evaluating where we are at this point of the season offensively, I felt it was in the best interest of the Auburn football program to make this change," Tuberville said. "I’m not satisfied with where we are and I am personally going to take a larger role with the offense the remainder of the season. We are going to work harder than ever to make sure we consistently improve as we move forward."

-Auburn University press release, via the Opelika-Auburn News on October 8

After just six games, Tony Franklin's second stint in the SEC has been extinguished. Not only did it come on the heels of an epic piece by Smart Football on how Auburn was not running the Tony Franklin System, it came just three days after the dreaded vote of confidence from the head coach.

There is much rejoicing in some sectors of the Auburn fandom, and some Gator fans, ever quick with the sarcastic wit, suggest the Tigers should take Dan Mullen. Please! [For the record, I am not in league with those folks. -Ed.]

An SEC Power Poll Voter from Auburnland, the Joe Cribbs Car Wash, suspects that Franklin's exit was inevitable. After all, J.C.C.W. explains, Franklin made sure everyone knew he had autonomy over the offense in the offseason, and Tuberville took that away after four games. I am reminded of the quote Jeremy Foley said the day he fired Ron Zook, "What should be done eventually must be done immediately."

A story from AuburnSports.com appears to validate the fine auto cleansing establishment's notion, as it quotes Franklin as saying, "I have no reason to stick around," as he took all of his books to his car.

So maybe it is the case as Doc Saturday says that his legacy on the Plains will be the 3-2 game against Mississippi State. In the end, I have a feeling that he was doomed from the beginning by a lack of talent at quarterback and a lack of full faith and support from everyone on the staff.

If anything, the spotlight on the Auburn offense has just gotten a lot brighter. I assume we will see a lot more power running and a lot more Kodi Burns. The catch is that everybody who's paying attention, opposing defensive coordinators included, will be assuming that too. Since both of those involve a whole lot more running plays, I have a feeling the Tigers will see a lot of loaded boxes from defenses who will dare Burns to beat them with his arm.

Where things go from here is anyone's guess. Auburn had been recruiting a lot of guys with spread offense backgrounds, but you figure that will change immediately. They also are now in the market for another offensive coordinator and finding a good one is not always easy, as they have figured out. Phil Fulmer's got their back on that one too.

Franklin probably is done for good in the SEC, but that's not to say he can't get another shot some place else among the BCS conferences like the spread lovin' Big 12. He'll have to put in some more time at the mid-major level for a few years of course, but his career is far from over.

Unless he decides his Auburn experience is book-worthy like his Kentucky tenure was. Then, all bets are off. Stay tuned.