I'll spoil the ending of the story for you early; the numbers don't make the Georgia game feel much better.  It still hurts, and it's not a pretty sight.  Still, there are some things to see in the pretty charts and graphs, so here we go.

First up, let's take a look at the basic box score numbers in comparison to the rest of the season.  Remember, pink is bad.  Prepare for bad.

Quick notes:

• Completion Percentage!  Aagh!  Ok, so UT's passing game was better than their running game against Georgia.  When you rush for 1 net yard, that's not exactly hard to do.  But the reality is that the 43.3% completion rate is second-worst on the season - barely beating out the UCLA game.  More on that in a bit.
• QB Rating - Not So Shabby!  With such a low completion percentage, this number is pretty decent.  The reason for this pleasant surprise is that Stephens has still not thrown an INT.  Digest that.
• Running Game!  Running Game!  Wherefore Art Thou, Running Game?  The more I look at the numbers, the more I believe the Georgia linemen when they say they read our offense.  (That's the difference in film study between the majors and 1-AA, Clawson.  Remember that.)  You'll see this later on, too.
• Wheee!  Pass-Whacky!  2:1 Pass-Run Ratio.  Not exactly Clawson-esque.  Chalk that up to the second-half desperation, where the running game nearly disappeared.  You can blame the clock rules for that.  Well, that and the multi-score deficit.  That didn't help much, either.

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Where to start on this one, eh?

Here are a few things I noticed throughout the game.

• Might as well get this out early.  Yes, the officiating was bad.  No, it was not to blame for UT's loss.  There were some points that might not have existed if some plays were called better, but UT clearly got outplayed nonetheless.  The right team won.
• The defense finally had an off night.  You knew the defense couldn't handle that pace of play for every week of the season.  This is the week they finally broke down.
• Nick Stephens is the long-term starter.  He had his mistakes, and he got lucky that some passes weren't intercepted, but he was mentally in the game the whole time.  His basic mechanics were there, his longer passes are terrific, and he didn't create problems in the 20-to-goal regions.  He's a guy you can build an offense on.
• The offensive line is regressing.  In the UCLA game, I noted that the O-line was solid against any rush of 5 men or fewer.  Tonight, UGA got some great pressure with 3-man rushes at times.  The biggest problem seemed to be the tackles, but  that may just be the strongest impression in my mind, too.
• UT's D needs work on tackling fundamentals.  Granted, UGA has terrific players on offense.  But that doesn't negate the fact that UT did a poor job of wrapping up the ball carrier.  Part of the 3rd-down conversion problem is that UGA tended to gain about 2-3 yards on every play after the first hit.  Over the course of 3 consecutive plays, that alone nearly gives you a first down.
• Colquitt is a much better punter, but we need help on kickoffs.  Did any kickoffs go into the end zone?
• Special teams is a train wreck.  This each-coach-handles-a-piece approach to special teams isn't working.  The players aren't integrated to each other.  Punt return coverage is still a liability.
• Yet all in all, I feel better about the team than a week ago.  We're done in the SEC race.  That's now official.  So now we can focus on rebuilding the team and developing for next year.  (Sorry, seniors.  I'm really sorry to say that.)  And there are definite things to build on:  Stephens; Hardesty; Creer; Berry to name a few.  I have a feeling we'll see the offense grow steadily for a few weeks now.  It won't be enough to satisfy people, but it should change.

Quick numbers:

• Time of Possession:  UT  17:51,  UGA 42:09
• Yards:  UT 209,  UGA 458
• Rushing Yards (net):  UT 1,  UGA 149
• Number of Plays:  UT  45,  UGA 81
  
• Penalties:  UT 10 for 97,  UGA 11 for 75

If you happened to catch the replay of Joel's podcast with T. Kyle King of Dawg Sports, you might have caught me wondering which elbow was injured on Knowshon Moreno.  It was his right elbow.  It might not have any impact in the game, but at least you know.  Even if you don't care.

By the time you finished reading the title of this post (be it through feed-reader or through the site itself), you probably came under the assumption that I was going to talk about the UT running backs and how Foster seems to get all the carries while Vol Nation seems to think that Hardesty and Creer should be more involved.  Well, as it turns out, you'd be right.  Like you, I'm a little puzzled over the whole thing.  So I decided to find a few quotes from the coaches and see if the prevailing logic fits the pattern.

VS. NORTHERN ILLINOIS

"It's almost impossible," Drayton said. "We have three dynamic runners in the backfield. (Fifty) reps, you tell me. If you got the solution, I'm all ears."

 -- Stan Drayton, running back coach

"We just didn't have many plays."

 -- Phillip Fulmer, head coach

"As we've done in the past, the hot player will play, the guy that's running, protecting, doing all those things the best," Fulmer said. "But they'll all play."

 -- Phillip Fulmer, head coach

“Arian is still the starter and if he goes out there and plays well and we’re moving the football, we’ll keep him in there."

 -- David Clawson, offensive coordinator before the UNI game.

Sure, the lack of plays idea sounds pretty good.  Last year, the college game averaged close to 70 plays per offense per game, while UT has fallen considerably short of that.  The game against UNI was the lowest number of plays to date - 49 according to NCAA.com - and the last three games all "featured" a UT offense with fewer than 60 plays each game.  In fact:

From NCAA.com

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In response to my post on UT's offensive stats this morning, rblakeh asked: what do the receiver catch rates look like?  Here they are:

There's not a whole lot to say because context is so important here.  An incompletion could be the fault of the receiver, of the QB, or of both.  Or it could be tipped.  Or intercepted.  You get the idea.  Still:

• RBs usually have higher completion percentages due to things like screen passes and passes to the flat.  They're easier to catch.
• 10 passes did not have intended targets listed in the NCAA stats, and are noted above under "?".
• I went ahead and included the QB sacks since they occurred on pass plays.  This means that the only pass plays I don't have listed are QB scrambles.  But hey, that would have been a lot of effort.
• This does include Gerald Jones's pass attempts.
• Cooper is quietly having a nice season as a fullback.
• Jones and Warren have the most eye-catching negatives there.  Any thoughts on that?  Are they the targets of INTs, bad passes, etc.?  Or are they butterfingers?
• Sorta ditto for Rogers, but a slightly smaller sample size than Warren - just enough to make me skittish about drawing conclusions.

With 5 games in the books, we can now take a look at some of the trends emerging in the UT offense.  (And by "trends", I don't mean a complete lack of consistency from the QB play.)  As before, I'll toss around a few pretty graphs and charts to give a gauge of the performance of the offense.

When evaluating Stephens's  play, keep in mind that I did not visually see the game.  I don't know exactly how well/poorly he threw the ball, how well the running backs ran, or how stiff the UNI defense was.  So the numbers merely give me something to focus on as a starting point for evaluation.  If you saw the game and anything in the chars/graphs jumps out at you, please leave some thoughts below.  I'm basically flying the Alps on instrumentation alone; the gauges tell me I'd like to see the Alps, but I can't tell you what those Alps actually look like from this angle.

The stats are compiled from the database at NCAA.com.  If you compare my numbers to those found at places like ESPN.com, you'll undoubtedly find discrepancies.  That's largely because ESPN et. al tend to be inconsistent because they update stats live, while NCAA will take more time to get them right.  Besides, the NCAA stats are the official stats.  There is one discrepancy that bugs me, though, and I'd like your help resolving it if you could.  You'll see it very early on.

So, onward and upward:

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I didn't get to see the game, but the updates were fascinating.  It sounded like a close game throughout, and one where all the fans got their money's worth.

Seriously though, I'm really happy for the Vanderbilt team and for Bobby Johnson.  I'm especially thrilled to see Johnson get this kind of return on his labor.  He runs a terrific, clean program and he is showing that you don't have to run a nasty, semi-felonious program to have success.  Here's hoping they continue to surprise.  I'm loving this ride.

Um.... take 'em where you can get 'em?

Negatives are easy to focus on, so let me offer this one positive:

• Nick Stephens appeared to be comfortable running the offense tonight, completing over 50% with 1 TD and 0 INT.  (The exact figures are currently in conflict, depending on your source.)  Considering that he split reps this week and didn't have significant first-string reps before then, that's pretty good.
• Oh, and Berry is a stud.  Are you as happy as I am that UT gets him for one more year?

More thoughts and analysis will come later on.  Take it easy this weekend and relax.  Fall is here!

Nick Stephens will be the starter for the UT-Northern Illinois football game on Saturday, as confirmed by GVX.  This confirms the report from the Tony Basilio show that we brought to you earlier today, though in stronger terms than Tony's source was willing to use on the air.  Expect Crompton to see meaningful playing time as well, as there is no indication that the staff is willing to declare Crompton's playing career over quite yet.

What to watch for:

• From Nick Stephens, realize that the pressure on him is not great.  He's following a series of disastrous performances at the QB position this season, so he knows that anything above hide-the-women-and-children horrific will be an improvement.  I would expect him to be given safe plays throughout his first 2 or 3 series to see how he settles in, though an occasional long ball should be mixed in.  He has a strong arm and a quick release, so look for his fundamental decision-making.  Does he key in on receivers?  Will he scan the middle of the field?  If a pass rush exists, will he be aware of the pressure and keep a good mental clock?
• From Jonathan Crompton: The burden of proof is on Crompton on Saturday.  He has a history of subpar (and subpractice) performance on gameday, so he has to prove that his performance is measurably better than in the past.  The list of things to watch for is the same as Stephens, with the added incentive of confidence in the process.  He has to show that he can play the mental game of QB with a purpose.
• From Gerald Jones:  Expect to see a few reps from the G-Gun, but I don't think they'll use it much.  With 2 QBs already in a gametime audition and a reduced number of snaps due to the clock rules, the plays are at a premium.  Besides, we have yet to see a downfield (i.e. beyond the LoS) pass from Jones, so I would expect that to wait until the Georgia game so they don't have any film.  There's no need to burn the G-Gun on N. Illinois (or so we hope...) so let's leave it in the holster for now.
• From David Clawson:  Much has been made in the local news about Clawson's exasperation in the booth when the play he calls is not run on the field.  If you get the game on TV, keep an eye on every shot of Clawson in the booth.  What does his demeanor suggest about how the QB on the field is doing?  Technically, it's Clawson's offense, and his impression of the QBs should be the main factor in the analysis on Sunday.
• From the fans:  First, let's see how many show up.  The announced attendance will undoubtedly be higher than the actual attendance, so pay attention to the camera shots.  Second, how will they respond when Crompton steps in?  Third, how will the crowd respond when Stephens makes a mistake?  (How much patience will they have?)
• From Rocky Top Talk:  We'll be keeping tabs on the QB play throughout the game in the live game thread.  Feel free to join us and offer your thoughts.  Collaboration is good.  [/shameless plug]