This here's the RTT Ready, Fire, Aim BlogPoll computer ballot. For a complete refresher on what we're doing, go here, here, here, and here. You can also hit the "blogpoll" tag below the post for a list of all of the related stories.
Prior tweaks to the system: (1) added experience ratings; (2) adjusted the weighting with a "square root of the sum of the squares." Why? I'll you why: I don't know. (3) revised the way tied teams were ranked; (4) began sorting the win/loss category based on losing percentage to hopefully alleviate the penalty to teams with early byes; and (5) (a) adjusted the weighting of the win/loss factor and (b) adjusted the strength of schedule factor by subjecting the NCAA past opposition figures to a strength of conference rating. Conferences were divided into two categories: BCS and non-BCS.
Tweaks for this week:
- More fooling with the strength of schedule component. The major computer polls (Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Anderson, Sagarin, and Rothman) were generally in agreement that the Big 12 and SEC were the best conferences and that the other BCS conferences were better than the non-BCS conferences, but on the question of which non-Big 12 and non-SEC BCS conferences were strongest, there was a lot of diversity of opinion. What I decided then was to create three categories. The first includes the Big 12 and the SEC, and teams in that category get full credit for their NCAA past opposition percentage. The second group includes the other BCS conferences, and teams in that category have their NCAA past opposition percentages reduced to 75% of whatever the raw number is. The third group consists of all of the other conferences, and teams in these categories have their past opposition numbers reduced to 50%.
- Doing that left the top three as Alabama, Oklahoma State, and Texas. Both Texas and Oklahoma State beat Missouri over the past two weeks, and Texas did so much more convincingly, even accounting for the fact that they had the Tigers at home. The Longhorns' SoS rank based on the new formula was 8, and the Cowboys' was 33, so I increased the weight of the new SoS component from 15 to 20, which put Texas on top of Oklahoma State. It still leaves Alabama above Texas, though, and based on what I've seen from those two teams over the past three weeks, I'd have to say that Texas is the better team, but their pass efficiency defense (72) is keeping them below Alabama. The only way I could think of to make the computer spit Texas out on top of Alabama would be to increase the weighting of the SoS factor to a ridiculous level (which makes everything else exceedingly wacky) or to weight the Big 12 more than the SEC. In the end, I decided to leave it, as I believe it's a matter of the SEC being a more defensive league and the Big 12 being a more offensive league. According to SMQ's stats relevancy watch, defense is more important, so I left it. I'll probably overrule it this week, though, and put Texas over Alabama.
- The categories again: Win/Loss, Strength of Schedule, Pass Efficiency Defense, Rush Defense, 3rd Down Offense, Total Defense, Pass Efficiency Offense, Experience, Opponents Points Per Game, Total Offense, and 3rd Down Defense. The AVG R column is Average Ranking, and the last column is Weighted Average.
- The current weighting of the categories: 100, 20, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. Then tweaked by the square root of the sum of the squares manuever.
- Current spreadsheet here.
All right, then. The Top 30 (so you can see where some of the teams in the traditional polls ended up in the computer rankings), according to the computer:
|
Rank
|
Team
|
WL
|
SOS
|
PED
|
RD
|
3DO
|
TD
|
PEO
|
EXP
|
OPPG
|
TO
|
3DD
|
AVG R
|
W AVG
|
|
1
|
Alabama |
1
|
23
|
17
|
4
|
40
|
16
|
48
|
95
|
14
|
60
|
3
|
29.18
|
67.53
|
|
2
|
Texas |
1
|
8
|
72
|
2
|
4
|
39
|
2
|
116
|
25
|
10
|
43
|
29.27
|
77.92
|
|
3
|
Oklahoma St. |
1
|
33
|
33
|
35
|
16
|
47
|
3
|
45
|
40
|
7
|
10
|
24.55
|
78.81
|
|
4
|
Texas Tech |
1
|
37
|
53
|
12
|
3
|
58
|
10
|
68
|
43
|
2
|
10
|
27.00
|
91.32
|
|
5
|
Ohio St. |
10
|
25
|
10
|
17
|
50
|
10
|
47
|
59
|
12
|
92
|
50
|
34.73
|
113.23
|
|
6
|
Oklahoma |
12
|
3
|
24
|
32
|
15
|
34
|
4
|
59
|
42
|
4
|
7
|
21.45
|
117.85
|
|
7
|
Georgia |
12
|
4
|
51
|
3
|
29
|
12
|
27
|
90
|
27
|
26
|
32
|
28.45
|
124.06
|
|
8
|
Penn St. |
1
|
67
|
4
|
22
|
8
|
8
|
19
|
38
|
6
|
11
|
5
|
17.18
|
124.52
|
|
9
|
Boise St. |
1
|
78
|
8
|
44
|
33
|
32
|
7
|
114
|
2
|
27
|
22
|
33.45
|
154.16
|
|
10
|
Georgia Tech |
12
|
52
|
6
|
19
|
59
|
5
|
25
|
109
|
5
|
66
|
47
|
36.82
|
156.00
|
|
11
|
South Fla. |
12
|
62
|
20
|
6
|
19
|
7
|
23
|
66
|
25
|
20
|
12
|
24.73
|
160.63
|
|
12
|
Northwestern |
12
|
64
|
35
|
39
|
18
|
49
|
82
|
59
|
28
|
44
|
23
|
41.18
|
172.88
|
|
13
|
Minnesota |
12
|
49
|
66
|
42
|
77
|
83
|
26
|
112
|
32
|
68
|
37
|
54.91
|
173.71
|
|
14
|
Utah |
1
|
94
|
50
|
9
|
38
|
9
|
24
|
14
|
31
|
35
|
8
|
28.45
|
178.54
|
|
15
|
TCU |
10
|
83
|
12
|
1
|
7
|
1
|
85
|
26
|
3
|
38
|
13
|
25.36
|
181.07
|
|
16
|
Florida |
19
|
17
|
21
|
15
|
26
|
15
|
22
|
116
|
8
|
37
|
29
|
29.55
|
182.98
|
|
17
|
LSU |
19
|
26
|
46
|
16
|
53
|
24
|
50
|
77
|
44
|
40
|
20
|
37.73
|
190.87
|
|
18
|
Southern California |
19
|
43
|
3
|
8
|
13
|
2
|
6
|
72
|
1
|
12
|
4
|
16.64
|
191.71
|
|
19
|
Florida St. |
19
|
51
|
18
|
7
|
6
|
3
|
72
|
53
|
17
|
29
|
1
|
25.09
|
200.46
|
|
20
|
Pittsburgh |
19
|
50
|
44
|
53
|
22
|
20
|
75
|
77
|
44
|
52
|
51
|
46.09
|
208.32
|
|
21
|
Boston College |
19
|
65
|
1
|
26
|
44
|
4
|
97
|
68
|
11
|
65
|
20
|
38.18
|
218.30
|
|
22
|
Ball St. |
1
|
114
|
19
|
87
|
5
|
55
|
9
|
53
|
16
|
15
|
63
|
39.73
|
220.56
|
|
23
|
Cincinnati |
19
|
59
|
73
|
13
|
86
|
43
|
21
|
59
|
33
|
39
|
58
|
45.73
|
221.93
|
|
24
|
BYU |
12
|
103
|
40
|
56
|
2
|
37
|
15
|
49
|
10
|
24
|
102
|
40.91
|
224.92
|
|
25
|
Tulsa |
1
|
113
|
106
|
59
|
1
|
99
|
1
|
49
|
80
|
1
|
89
|
54.45
|
235.44
|
|
26
|
Kansas |
28
|
11
|
34
|
29
|
10
|
65
|
14
|
32
|
47
|
14
|
44
|
29.82
|
260.91
|
|
27
|
Michigan St. |
26
|
39
|
27
|
69
|
84
|
63
|
69
|
68
|
39
|
70
|
84
|
58.00
|
264.33
|
|
28
|
Kentucky |
28
|
18
|
2
|
51
|
99
|
18
|
99
|
38
|
7
|
90
|
14
|
42.18
|
271.66
|
|
29
|
North Carolina |
28
|
40
|
32
|
47
|
35
|
59
|
43
|
72
|
34
|
87
|
67
|
49.45
|
273.70
|
|
30
|
Missouri |
28
|
2
|
95
|
45
|
12
|
100
|
5
|
32
|
71
|
5
|
104
|
45.36
|
274.88
|
So what human overrides are called for this week? Candidates (those that are five spots or more off from the major polls):
Possibly too high
- Georgia Tech.
- Northwestern.
- Minnesota.
- Florida State.
- Cincinnati.
Possibly too low
- Penn State.
- Florida.
- Southern Cal.
- Kansas.
- Missouri.
Current draft ballot, without any interventions yet:
 |
||
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | -- |
| 2 | Texas | -- |
| 3 | Oklahoma State |
 1 |
| 4 | Texas Tech |
1 |
| 5 | Ohio State |
4 |
| 6 | Oklahoma | -- |
| 7 | Georgia |
8 |
| 8 | Penn State |
 5 |
| 9 | Boise State |
3 |
| 10 | Georgia Tech |
16 |
| 11 | South Florida |
6 |
| 12 | Northwestern |
14 |
| 13 | Minnesota |
13 |
| 14 | Utah |
4 |
| 15 | TCU |
6 |
| 16 | Florida |
8 |
| 17 | LSU |
8 |
| 18 | Southern Cal |
11 |
| 19 | Florida State |
7 |
| 20 | Pittsburgh |
6 |
| 21 | Boston College |
5 |
| 22 | Ball State | -- |
| 23 | Cincinnati |
3 |
| 24 | Brigham Young |
8 |
| 25 | Tulsa |
1 |
Dropped Out: Michigan State (#11), Missouri (#13), Kansas (#14), North Carolina (#18), Virginia Tech (#19), Wake Forest (#20), Vanderbilt (#23), California (#24).
Up to six vetoes of the computer rankings. Go.