So I started thinking. Just how bad is our offense? Is it really as bad as it seems, or have we just played some really good defenses? After all, Georgia, Auburn, and Florida are all in the top 15 in total defense, and Mississippi State is 22nd.
So maybe it'd be worth a look at how we stacked up against the competition of our competition, right? Uh, maybeperhapssorta:
|
Team
|
ORYPG
|
UT
|
O3D%
|
UT
|
OPPG
|
UT
|
OYPG
|
UT
|
 |
96.3
|
96
|
32.9
|
36.4
|
13
|
6
|
274.3
|
258
|
 |
107.9
|
124
|
22.7
|
25.0
|
13.1
|
12
|
272.7
|
191
|
 |
61
|
1
|
33.3
|
33.3
|
17.7
|
14
|
269.7
|
209
|
 |
153.7
|
139
|
31.9
|
46.7
|
22.1
|
34
|
291.6
|
275
|
 |
66.1
|
26.5
|
14.4
|
276
|
- ORYPG = Opponents' rushing yards per game.
- O3D% = Opponents' third down conversion percentage.
- OPPG = Opponents' points per game.
- OYPG = Opponents' yards per game.
So can we conclude anything from that mess?
The Columns
- In the rushing game, we did as well as most of Florida's opponents against Florida, better than most of Auburn's against Auburn, and worse than the competition against Georiga and Mississippi State.
- Much to my surprise, we were generally better than the competition at converting third downs. Seriously, I must have done something wrong there, right?
- With respect to points per game and yards per game, we have problems.
The Rows
- Against Florida, we did as well or better than Florida's other competition in the rushing game and third down conversions. Yards per game weren't really that far off, either. The problem against the Gators, of course, was the fumbles and therefore points.
- Pretty much the same story against Auburn except that the points per game and yards per game were reversed. We got a great deal fewer yards against the Tigers than they usually give up, but we scored almost as many points as most of their opponents do.
- Georgia beat us much worse than they have most of their other opponents, on average.
- Mississippi State is the most troubling part to me. Sure, we scored more points and converted a higher percentage of third downs against the maroon Bulldogs than most of their other opponents did, but yikes, we didn't gain as many rushing or total yards as they are used to giving up.
Alabama predictions
- Rushing yards. I think we're probably looking at right around the average against Alabama's defense for rushing yards. That'd be 65 or so.
- Third down conversions. If form holds, we should do better than most at converting third downs against the Tide.
- Points. Should we expect 14 points or more against Alabama? Probably not. Oh, and they're averaging 32.29 points per game. Yeah, a little more than double, unless we can hold them to fewer than their average.
- Yards. 200-250, I'm thinking.