Nick Stephens will start in place of Jonathan Crompton tomorrow night as the Tennessee Volunteers host Northern Illinois. Stats and stuff after the jump, but first the keys to the game:
- For the third week in a row, third downs are going to be key. NIU's offense is currently ranked 10th in the nation in third down offense while our third down defense is ranked 86th. Flip things around and NIU still has the advantage, with Tennessee's third down offense ranked 87th and NIU's third down defense ranked 27th. Yes, you have to account for level of competition, but still.
- Nick Stephens.
- Tennessee's running game. The Volunteer running game must make things easier on the QB, whether that's new starter Stephens or Jonathan Crompton in relief. NIU is not a pushover in rushing defense, but we need to lighten the load for whomever's under center.
Okay, so the stats:
|
Tennessee rush
v. Northern Ill. defense |
Tennessee pass
v. Northern Ill. defense |
Northern Ill. rush
v. Tennessee defense |
Northern Ill. pass
v. Tennessee defense |
|
49
|
96
|
23
|
19
|
|
42
|
41
|
37
|
73
|
 |
|
 |
|
|
Field Goals
|
Tennessee punting
v. Northern Ill. punt return |
Northern Ill. punting
v. Tennessee punt return |
Intangibles
|
|
T-57
|
115
|
43
|
|
|
T-24
|
62
|
5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Huh. Yeah, well, numbers lie, right? Here's how the teams look next to each other in each of the key statistical categories currently used in the RTT Ready, Fire, Aim BlogPoll Computer Ballot:
|
Rank
|
Team
|
WL
|
SOS
|
PED
|
RD
|
3DO
|
TD
|
PEO
|
EXP
|
OPPG
|
TO
|
3DD
|
AVG R
|
W AVG
|
|
60
|
|
63
|
75
|
41
|
42
|
10
|
30
|
28
|
9
|
22
|
52
|
27
|
36.27
|
191.94
|
|
91
|
|
91
|
89
|
19
|
23
|
87
|
17
|
111
|
45
|
34
|
81
|
86
|
62.09
|
273.84
|
Or not. But heeeeyyyy, didn't we discover earlier this week that the strength of schedule numbers are wonky? Right.
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That's better. Sure, the Vols have one more loss than do the Huskies, but we've lost to No. 4 Florida and No.15 Auburn while NIU has lost to unranked Minnesota and unranked Western Michigan. So whew, yeah, you can now settle down about seeing all of those NIU logos above.
So what's it all mean?
- Tennessee's defense should carry the day against Northern Illinois, but we are still vulnerable on third down. Not only are the Vols not very good defensively on third down, the Huskies are decent offensively with the drive on the line.
- We really should be able to run the ball well despite the ostensibly even stats. Auburn's and Florida's defenses could stop all four of NIU's opponents at the same time, I'd bet.
- Other than that, Nick Stephens. So you know.