Time for yet another iteration of the RTT Ready, Fire, Aim BlogPoll ballotty thing. For a complete refresher on what we're doing, go here, here, here, and here.
Prior tweaks to the system: (1) added experience ratings; (2) adjusted the weighting with a "square root of the sum of the squares." Why? I'll you why: I don't know. (3) revised the way tied teams were ranked.
Tweaks for this week:
- Regarding the Win/Loss category: instead of ranking the teams based on winning percentage, we're moving to ranking them based on losing percentage. This helps to not penalize teams with early byes.
- The categories again: Win/Loss, Strength of Schedule, Pass Efficiency Defense, Rush Defense, 3rd Down Offense, Total Defense, Pass Efficiency Offense, Experience, Opponents Points Per Game, Total Offense, and 3rd Down Defense. The AVG R column is Average Ranking, and the last column is Weighted Average.
- The current weighting of the categories: 30, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. Then tweaked by the square root of the sum of the squares manuever.
- Current spreadsheet here.
All right, then. The Top 41 (so you can see where some of the teams in the traditional polls ended up in the computer rankings), according to the computer:
|
Rank
|
Team
|
WL
|
SOS
|
PED
|
RD
|
3DO
|
TD
|
PEO
|
EXP
|
OPPG
|
TO
|
3DD
|
AVG R
|
W AVG
|
|
1
|
Oklahoma |
1
|
4
|
1
|
18
|
15
|
11
|
4
|
59
|
15
|
5
|
8
|
12.82
|
28.31
|
|
2
|
Texas Tech |
1
|
15
|
29
|
24
|
13
|
49
|
16
|
68
|
33
|
2
|
3
|
23.00
|
50.89
|
|
3
|
Texas |
1
|
13
|
39
|
3
|
10
|
28
|
2
|
116
|
4
|
12
|
23
|
22.82
|
56.87
|
|
4
|
Penn St. |
1
|
61
|
8
|
11
|
8
|
8
|
14
|
38
|
9
|
9
|
7
|
15.82
|
58.95
|
|
5
|
Oklahoma St. |
1
|
28
|
31
|
65
|
9
|
51
|
3
|
45
|
54
|
6
|
15
|
28.00
|
69.50
|
|
6
|
LSU |
1
|
52
|
23
|
8
|
53
|
14
|
40
|
77
|
19
|
28
|
19
|
30.36
|
70.68
|
|
7
|
Missouri |
1
|
17
|
61
|
15
|
5
|
83
|
5
|
32
|
44
|
3
|
79
|
31.36
|
72.47
|
|
8
|
Alabama |
1
|
58
|
17
|
2
|
27
|
16
|
55
|
95
|
14
|
57
|
11
|
32.09
|
72.77
|
|
9
|
TCU |
16
|
35
|
14
|
1
|
12
|
1
|
100
|
26
|
11
|
33
|
5
|
23.09
|
72.85
|
|
10
|
Ohio St. |
16
|
12
|
21
|
32
|
57
|
18
|
54
|
59
|
22
|
81
|
72
|
40.36
|
75.04
|
|
11
|
Kansas |
24
|
2
|
26
|
17
|
4
|
39
|
11
|
32
|
38
|
14
|
32
|
21.73
|
75.06
|
|
12
|
BYU |
1
|
74
|
32
|
35
|
2
|
30
|
9
|
49
|
8
|
13
|
69
|
29.27
|
80.75
|
|
13
|
Florida St. |
24
|
27
|
10
|
5
|
11
|
3
|
89
|
53
|
20
|
32
|
2
|
25.09
|
84.20
|
|
14
|
Utah |
1
|
56
|
76
|
6
|
21
|
13
|
25
|
14
|
48
|
39
|
27
|
29.64
|
84.24
|
|
15
|
Florida |
24
|
22
|
15
|
20
|
34
|
19
|
28
|
116
|
4
|
47
|
29
|
32.55
|
87.43
|
|
16
|
Georgia |
24
|
1
|
59
|
4
|
20
|
22
|
26
|
90
|
43
|
30
|
31
|
31.82
|
91.19
|
|
17
|
Vanderbilt |
1
|
32
|
25
|
45
|
79
|
47
|
77
|
90
|
24
|
114
|
51
|
53.18
|
91.20
|
|
18
|
South Fla. |
16
|
76
|
30
|
10
|
22
|
20
|
34
|
66
|
32
|
27
|
22
|
32.27
|
92.56
|
|
19
|
Northwestern |
1
|
69
|
33
|
34
|
46
|
37
|
90
|
59
|
13
|
64
|
12
|
41.64
|
93.97
|
|
20
|
Georgia Tech |
24
|
46
|
5
|
42
|
42
|
15
|
19
|
109
|
4
|
37
|
71
|
37.64
|
97.46
|
|
21
|
Boston College |
24
|
37
|
4
|
21
|
58
|
10
|
93
|
68
|
4
|
56
|
21
|
36.00
|
97.77
|
|
22
|
Michigan St. |
16
|
26
|
36
|
50
|
87
|
56
|
79
|
68
|
22
|
54
|
30
|
47.64
|
103.40
|
|
23
|
Kentucky |
24
|
34
|
2
|
39
|
86
|
12
|
94
|
38
|
1
|
82
|
6
|
38.00
|
106.41
|
|
24
|
North Carolina |
24
|
39
|
19
|
67
|
52
|
57
|
23
|
72
|
40
|
88
|
47
|
48.00
|
106.80
|
|
25
|
Boise St. |
1
|
89
|
28
|
60
|
25
|
41
|
7
|
114
|
12
|
20
|
9
|
36.91
|
107.19
|
|
26
|
California |
24
|
60
|
7
|
15
|
94
|
25
|
41
|
90
|
30
|
38
|
25
|
40.82
|
112.76
|
|
27
|
Pittsburgh |
24
|
52
|
53
|
43
|
46
|
27
|
91
|
77
|
50
|
66
|
42
|
51.91
|
115.29
|
|
28
|
Arizona |
24
|
97
|
3
|
27
|
14
|
2
|
12
|
77
|
17
|
26
|
18
|
28.82
|
115.73
|
|
29
|
Southern California |
36
|
61
|
20
|
12
|
28
|
4
|
8
|
72
|
10
|
19
|
37
|
27.91
|
118.79
|
|
30
|
Minnesota |
16
|
70
|
49
|
49
|
77
|
62
|
29
|
112
|
35
|
61
|
33
|
53.91
|
120.13
|
|
31
|
Connecticut |
16
|
76
|
38
|
55
|
51
|
29
|
112
|
109
|
31
|
46
|
63
|
56.91
|
122.00
|
|
32
|
Virginia Tech |
16
|
36
|
84
|
56
|
67
|
33
|
88
|
105
|
35
|
108
|
38
|
60.55
|
122.66
|
|
33
|
Ball St. |
1
|
109
|
16
|
83
|
3
|
58
|
10
|
53
|
27
|
11
|
57
|
38.91
|
122.98
|
|
34
|
Cincinnati |
24
|
68
|
80
|
23
|
55
|
54
|
17
|
59
|
46
|
35
|
80
|
49.18
|
124.63
|
|
35
|
South Carolina |
39
|
49
|
22
|
41
|
19
|
6
|
62
|
26
|
16
|
72
|
58
|
37.27
|
125.58
|
|
36
|
Notre Dame |
24
|
54
|
35
|
59
|
92
|
84
|
36
|
95
|
40
|
70
|
42
|
57.36
|
128.99
|
|
37
|
Western Mich. |
16
|
102
|
74
|
57
|
44
|
67
|
14
|
14
|
53
|
25
|
67
|
48.45
|
135.42
|
|
38
|
Wisconsin |
44
|
21
|
18
|
47
|
48
|
31
|
59
|
77
|
29
|
43
|
86
|
45.73
|
138.05
|
|
39
|
West Virginia |
44
|
45
|
40
|
38
|
34
|
35
|
31
|
53
|
25
|
66
|
98
|
46.27
|
139.93
|
|
40
|
Wake Forest |
36
|
59
|
6
|
72
|
89
|
26
|
48
|
49
|
28
|
85
|
78
|
52.36
|
140.83
|
|
41
|
Auburn |
39
|
37
|
11
|
14
|
112
|
7
|
105
|
84
|
2
|
104
|
1
|
46.91
|
145.92
|
So what human interventions are called for this week? Candidates:
Possibly too high
- Oklahoma State. 5th here, 17th in both the AP and USA Today polls. Why? They've scored 55 points or more in every one of their games except their first against Washington State. Yeah, okay, so Houston, Missouri State, and Troy, but last week's beatdown was of Texas A&M. That's beginning to look legit. Missouri (without the "State") up next, so that'll be fun.
- TCU. No. 9 here, unranked by the traditional polls. Excellent stats, and the only blemish is a 35-10 loss to Oklahoma. I don't think they're No. 9, but I don't think they should be unranked, either.
- Florida State. 13th here, in the "Others Receiving Votes" category of the AP and USA Today polls. Only wart is a 12-3 loss to Wake Forest. Hmm. Just beat Miami 41-39. Hmm again.
- Georgia Tech, Boston College. Unranked in the AP/USA Today polls. Meh.
- Kentucky. Losing 17-14 to Alabama is nothing to be ashamed of. You want to see ashamed, see the Third Saturday in October.
Possibly too low
- Cal. Dunno.
- Southern Cal. Uh, yeah, but mental note that the stats don't support the human perception of these guys just yet.
- Virginia Tech. Probably should be ranked somewhere. Only loss is to East Carolina, 27-22, in the first game of the season. Don't get too carried away, though.
- Wisconsin. Uh, no. Two losses, to Ohio State and to . . . Michigan.
- Wake Forest. Don't think so. Lost to Navy.
- Auburn. Let me just say this: we almost beat them. That is all.
Up to eight vetoes of the computer rankings. Go.
Current draft ballot, without any interventions, not even the one obviously needed for Southern Cal:
 |
||
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma | -- |
| 2 | Texas Tech |
 14 |
| 3 | Texas | -- |
| 4 | Penn State |
8 |
| 5 | Oklahoma State |
21 |
| 6 | LSU |
 2 |
| 7 | Missouri |
2 |
| 8 | Alabama |
6 |
| 9 | TCU |
11 |
| 10 | Ohio State |
8 |
| 11 | Kansas |
3 |
| 12 | Brigham Young |
3 |
| 13 | Florida State |
10 |
| 14 | Utah |
8 |
| 15 | Florida |
2 |
| 16 | Georgia |
6 |
| 17 | Vanderbilt |
4 |
| 18 | South Florida |
11 |
| 19 | Northwestern | -- |
| 20 | Georgia Tech |
6 |
| 21 | Boston College |
5 |
| 22 | Michigan State |
4 |
| 23 | Kentucky |
3 |
| 24 | North Carolina |
2 |
| 25 | Boise State |
17 |
Dropped Out: Southern Cal (#11), Wisconsin (#15), Virginia Tech (#21), Oregon (#22), Wake Forest (#24), Nebraska (#25).
[Note by Joel, 10/06/08 8:25 PM EDT ] Corrected as indicated in the comments below. Basically, though, we ended up with just a different set of anomalies. So what overrides this week?
| ||
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma | -- |
| 2 | Alabama | -- |
| 3 | Boise State | 5 |
| 4 | Missouri | 1 |
| 5 | South Florida | 2 |
| 6 | Ohio State | 12 |
| 7 | Texas | 4 |
| 8 | TCU | 12 |
| 9 | Utah | 3 |
| 10 | Penn State | 2 |
| 11 | Kansas | 3 |
| 12 | Florida State | 11 |
| 13 | Georgia Tech | 13 |
| 14 | Georgia | 4 |
| 15 | Vanderbilt | 2 |
| 16 | Texas Tech | -- |
| 17 | North Carolina | 9 |
| 18 | Kentucky | 8 |
| 19 | Southern Cal | 8 |
| 20 | LSU | 16 |
| 21 | Ball State | 5 |
| 22 | California | 4 |
| 23 | Brigham Young | 14 |
| 24 | Michigan State | 2 |
| 25 | Oklahoma State | 1 |
Dropped Out: Wisconsin (#15), Florida (#17), Northwestern (#19), Virginia Tech (#21), Oregon (#22), Wake Forest (#24), Nebraska (#25).