Stats and stuff after the jump, but first the keys to the game:
- Whichever team does the best job of getting its offense going against a very good defense should win this game. Tennessee's defense appears to be a bit better than Georgia's, but the Bulldogs' offense is much better than Tennessee's, so the odds are that Georgia will get this done first and best.
- What the Vols do best on offense is run the ball, but the Dawgs are built to stop the run, so Nick Stephens and the Tennessee receivers are going to have to figure heavily into the game plan if the Vols are to have a chance.
- Begin your commercial break early, on fourth down just before Tennessee punts. You won't miss anything but catastrophe. Unless you like that sort of thing.
- Both teams will be highly motivated. While Tennessee and its coaching staff historically do their best in Games No One Is Giving Us A Chance In Perdition to Win, it just doesn't appear that they're good enough on offense to pull off the upset this time, especially against a team that is as motivated as they are. Consider the game a potential tipping point for the Fulmer Era.
Okay, so the stats:
Tennessee rush v. Georgia defense |
Tennessee pass v. Georgia defense |
Georgia rush v. Tennessee defense |
Georgia pass v. Tennessee defense |
61 |
98 |
13 |
12 |
4 |
59 |
50 |
23 |
 |
|
 |
|
Field Goals |
Tennessee punting v. Georgia punt return |
Georgia punting v. Tennessee punt return |
Intangibles |
T-35 |
115 |
51 |
|
T-37 |
3 |
42 |
|
Push |
|
|
|
So, yeah. Which is better, Georgia's defense or Tennessee's defense? Here's an easier one for you: which is worse, Georgia's offense or Tennessee's? Uh-huh.
Here's how the teams look next to each other in each of the key statistical categories currently used in the RTT Ready, Fire, Aim BlogPoll Computer Ballot:
Rank |
Team |
WL |
SOS |
PED |
RD |
3DO |
TD |
PEO |
EXP |
OPPG |
TO |
3DD |
AVG R |
W AVG |
14 |
|
24 |
8 |
59 |
4 |
20 |
22 |
26 |
90 |
43 |
30 |
31 |
32.45 |
91.48 |
81 |
|
73 |
88 |
12 |
13 |
100 |
5 |
109 |
45 |
26 |
97 |
74 |
58.36 |
231.10 |
Yeah, we're 5th in the nation in total defense. But holster that woo, boys, because we're 97th in total offense, and we're going against a team apparently built to stop what we do best, and they've compiled excellent defensive statistics against very good competition.
Aaaand the strength of schedule stuff:
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
So what's it all mean?
-
What? We're going to have to pass? You'd think that our only real chance on offense against the Dawgs would be to run the ball, but despite the fact that it is the best thing we do with the ball and despite the fact that it should be something we're really good at, 61st in the nation really isn't that good, is it? Add to that that we'll be going against the nation's fourth best rushing defense, and don't be surprised if we have trouble moving the ball on the ground. But look at this. As poorly as we've shown so far in the passing game (98th in the nation), Georgia's not been that good defending the pass (59th). The disparity between the Vols' rushing ranking and the Dawg's rush defense ranking is 57 positions, but the disparity in the passing game is only 39 positions. Dare I say it? Do we need to focus on the passing game to beat Georgia? Airsick bags are behind the Skymiles in the pocket in front of you.
-
When Georgia has the ball. Any advantage the Vols might have on defense appears to be less than Georgia's apparent advantage on the other side of the ball. Yeah, we're doing very well against both the run and the pass, but the Bulldogs are a well-balanced team with the 23rd-best passing attack in the nation and a Heisman trophy contender running the ball. Still, there is some slight glimmer of hope. After all, if we stopped them last year with a rush defense ranked 88th in the nation, we can do the same thing with a rush defense ranked 13th, right? Right? Hello?!
-
Special teams. Run! Hide! Cover your eyes and plug your ears! Sing happy songs!
-
Intangibles. The aftertaste of Georgia's 2007 and 2006 losses to Tennessee, by 21 and 18 points respectively, is surely the bitterest of bittery bitter. The Bulldogs, coming off a preseason No. 1 ranking, were embarrassed on national t.v. two weeks ago by Alabama and had a week off to think about it. Tennessee's program is absolutely reeling, struggling even against lower-level competition, and its offense can't find any rhythm. Intangibles are by their very nature hard to figure, so these things really could go either way. Both teams will be highly motivated at the beginning of the game. At the end of the game, one of them will be clinically depressed.