This here's the RTT Ready, Fire, Aim BlogPoll computer ballot. For a complete refresher on what we're doing, go here, here, here, and here. You can also hit the "blogpoll" tag below the post for a list of all of the related stories.
I'm posting this early this weekend because I'll be at the Titans game most of the day. I've highlighted some teams that immediately jumped out as needing review, but until the major polls come out I can't do a thorough review of where the computer is more than five off from those polls everyone trusts. Yeah, it's all relative. Anyway, I'll do that later.
Prior tweaks to the system: (1) added experience ratings; (2) adjusted the weighting with a "square root of the sum of the squares." Why? I'll you why: I don't know. (3) revised the way tied teams were ranked; (4) began sorting the win/loss category based on losing percentage to hopefully alleviate the penalty to teams with early byes; (5) (a) adjusted the weighting of the win/loss factor and (b) adjusted the strength of schedule factor by subjecting the NCAA past opposition figures to a strength of conference rating. Conferences were divided into two categories: BCS and non-BCS; and (6) modified the Conference Ratings so that there were three categories instead of just BCS and non-BCS. The new categories are (a) the SEC and the Big12, (b) the other BCS conferences, and (c) the non-BCS conferences.
Tweaks for this week:
- None. The initial results triggered the need for investigation of certain teams, but did not reveal, to me anyway, any systemic problems. Anyone else see anything bizarre that might necessitate a system tweak this week?
- The categories again: Win/Loss, Strength of Schedule, Pass Efficiency Defense, Rush Defense, 3rd Down Offense, Total Defense, Pass Efficiency Offense, Experience, Opponents Points Per Game, Total Offense, and 3rd Down Defense. The AVG R column is Average Ranking, and the last column is Weighted Average.
- The current weighting of the categories: 100, 15, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. Then tweaked by the square root of the sum of the squares maneuver.
- Current spreadsheet here.
All right, then. The Top 25, according to the computer:
Rank |
Team |
WL |
SOS |
PED |
RD |
3DO |
TD |
PEO |
EXP |
OPPG |
TO |
3DD |
AVG R |
W AVG |
1 |
Texas Tech | 1 |
11 |
53 |
10 |
3 |
54 |
9 |
68 |
46 |
2 |
23 |
25.45 |
63.85 |
2 |
Alabama | 1 |
31 |
14 |
2 |
32 |
4 |
56 |
95 |
6 |
61 |
2 |
27.64 |
76.02 |
3 |
Oklahoma | 8 |
5 |
34 |
35 |
22 |
59 |
4 |
59 |
51 |
3 |
10 |
26.36 |
93.19 |
4 |
Penn St. | 1 |
56 |
4 |
11 |
9 |
6 |
18 |
38 |
4 |
11 |
12 |
15.45 |
104.08 |
5 |
Oklahoma St. | 8 |
27 |
45 |
36 |
21 |
62 |
2 |
45 |
39 |
7 |
42 |
30.36 |
107.05 |
6 |
Texas | 8 |
1 |
80 |
4 |
4 |
64 |
3 |
116 |
36 |
9 |
55 |
34.55 |
112.76 |
7 |
Florida | 13 |
9 |
10 |
13 |
27 |
16 |
6 |
116 |
5 |
31 |
22 |
24.36 |
128.79 |
8 |
Boise St. | 1 |
78 |
2 |
29 |
33 |
12 |
10 |
114 |
2 |
24 |
8 |
28.45 |
151.28 |
9 |
Ohio St. | 16 |
23 |
8 |
14 |
38 |
8 |
52 |
59 |
8 |
97 |
53 |
34.18 |
158.16 |
10 |
TCU | 1 |
86 |
5 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
55 |
26 |
3 |
29 |
7 |
20.09 |
159.09 |
11 |
Southern California | 13 |
57 |
1 |
5 |
24 |
1 |
7 |
72 |
1 |
10 |
5 |
17.82 |
160.17 |
12 |
Georgia | 16 |
2 |
76 |
7 |
36 |
30 |
23 |
90 |
53 |
23 |
39 |
35.91 |
165.15 |
13 |
Missouri | 16 |
8 |
92 |
38 |
5 |
86 |
5 |
32 |
55 |
6 |
79 |
38.36 |
174.43 |
14 |
Utah | 1 |
94 |
42 |
8 |
35 |
7 |
22 |
14 |
18 |
32 |
4 |
25.18 |
176.64 |
15 |
Georgia Tech | 16 |
55 |
16 |
33 |
62 |
14 |
39 |
109 |
11 |
72 |
70 |
45.18 |
188.75 |
16 |
Northwestern | 16 |
59 |
41 |
26 |
25 |
46 |
86 |
59 |
22 |
51 |
25 |
41.45 |
192.73 |
17 |
Michigan St. | 15 |
54 |
24 |
75 |
80 |
60 |
71 |
68 |
37 |
66 |
69 |
56.27 |
192.86 |
18 |
Minnesota | 16 |
49 |
51 |
53 |
66 |
65 |
36 |
112 |
20 |
68 |
21 |
50.64 |
193.53 |
19 |
BYU | 8 |
107 |
50 |
52 |
1 |
48 |
8 |
49 |
26 |
17 |
109 |
43.18 |
217.75 |
20 |
Air Force | 16 |
83 |
26 |
62 |
40 |
22 |
31 |
7 |
17 |
73 |
76 |
41.18 |
218.31 |
21 |
Ball St. | 1 |
117 |
18 |
79 |
8 |
57 |
12 |
53 |
13 |
15 |
67 |
40.00 |
224.29 |
22 |
Tulsa | 8 |
116 |
107 |
40 |
2 |
85 |
1 |
49 |
69 |
1 |
78 |
50.55 |
247.30 |
23 |
LSU | 26 |
25 |
46 |
17 |
47 |
21 |
53 |
77 |
58 |
33 |
20 |
38.45 |
249.36 |
24 |
North Carolina | 26 |
36 |
29 |
32 |
28 |
45 |
33 |
72 |
33 |
88 |
66 |
44.36 |
251.91 |
25 |
Florida St. | 26 |
46 |
23 |
18 |
16 |
5 |
74 |
53 |
23 |
37 |
1 |
29.27 |
255.12 |
So what human overrides are called for this week? Candidates (those that are around five spots or more off from the major polls) (remember, this will be updated later):
Possibly too high
- Boise State
- Georgia
- Minnesota
- LSU
Possibly too low
- Texas. Almost certainly. They've beaten Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, so they should at least be above them, dont' you think?
- Florida
- Southern Cal
Possibly out of order
- Texas and their prior opponents.
- Oklahoma and Penn State.
Current draft ballot, without any interventions yet:
![]() | ||
Rank | Team | Delta |
---|---|---|
1 | Texas Tech | ![]() |
2 | Alabama | -- |
3 | Oklahoma | ![]() |
4 | Penn State | -- |
5 | Oklahoma State | ![]() |
6 | Texas | ![]() |
7 | Florida | ![]() |
8 | Boise State | ![]() |
9 | Ohio State | ![]() |
10 | TCU | ![]() |
11 | Southern Cal | ![]() |
12 | Georgia | ![]() |
13 | Missouri | ![]() |
14 | Utah | ![]() |
15 | Georgia Tech | ![]() |
16 | Northwestern | ![]() |
17 | Michigan State | ![]() |
18 | Minnesota | ![]() |
19 | Brigham Young | ![]() |
20 | Air Force | ![]() |
21 | Ball State | ![]() |
22 | Tulsa | -- |
23 | LSU | ![]() |
24 | North Carolina | ![]() |
25 | Florida State | ![]() |
We'll use up to four vetoes of the computer rankings. Now soliciting suggestions.