Tennessee Volunteers v. Kentucky Wildcats: stat comparison

The Patterson injury has become the story of the game, seemingly eclipsing the previous upset at Rupp and the revenge motive for the Vols. Looking down the stats, you'll see that Kentucky relies heavily on the inside game, magnifying the loss of Patterson even more. There is no doubt that Kentucky will work as hard as they can, and they'll try to give the Vol as much of a game as they can. Will it be enough for an upset at TBA? The practical answer is likely not, but the game has yet to be played, so we have to respect the possibility of an upset.

Comments follow amongst the charts.

Stats were tallied using StatSheet.com, with a huge nod to Joel for his previous work.

Rankings
Conf Standing	1		2
AP Rank	1		18
RPI	0.6874		0.5712
RPI Rank	1		56
SOS	0.6135		0.5763
SOS Rank	2		14
Wins & Losses
Overall	25-3	(89.3%)	25-3	(61.5%)
Home	14-0	(100.0%)	13-4	(76.5%)
Away	8-2	(80.0%)	3-5	(37.5%)
Neutral	3-1	(75.0%)	0-1	(0.0%)
Conference	11-2	(84.6%)	10-3	(76.9%)
Top 25	3-2	(60.0%)	2-3	(40.0%)
Blowout (> 19)	8-0	(100.0%)	5-1	(83.3%)
Close (< 6)	7-1	(87.5%)	5-2	(71.4%)
Overtime	0-0	(0.0%)	1-1	(50.0%)
NCAA Tourney	0-0	(0.0%)	0-0	(0.0%)

Wow. The only UK number up there is overtimes, and UT has never even played extra minutes this year.

	All Games		Conference Games
					Difference (adjusted for total games played)
Total Games	26	28	13	13	2
Wins	16	25	10	11	9
Losses	10	3	3	2	7
Pct	0.615	0.893	0.769	0.846	0.178
Field Goals Made	623	814	291	366	143.1
Field Goals Attempted	1334	1799	645	827	362.4
Field Goal Percentage	0.47	0.45	0.45	0.44	-0.02
Free Throws Made	403	434	208	194	0
Free Throws Attempted	535	671	278	301	94.9
Free Throw Percentage	0.75	0.65	0.75	0.65	-0.1
3pt Field Goals Made	147	255	65	115	96.7
3pt Field Goals Attempted	408	714	182	310	275
3pt Field Goal Percentage	0.36	0.36	0.36	0.37	0
Points Per Game	69.1	82.8	65.8	80.1	13.7
Rebounds Per Game	36.4	41.2	36.5	43.7	4.8
Offensive Rebounds Per Game	9.8	15.0	9.7	15.8	5.2
Defensive Rebounds Per Game	24.4	23.9	24.3	24.9	-0.5
Assists Per Game	13.0	18.5	11.9	16.5	5.5
Steals Per Game	6.9	9.8	6.2	7.8	2.9
Turnovers Per Game	16.1	12.9	14.8	13.4	3.2
Blocks Per Game	4.7	3.4	4.8	3.8	-1.3
Fouls Per Game	18.9	20.2	17.2	21.3	1.4
Disqualifications	15	3	6	3	13.2

I hope you like the color orange, after having scrolled through all that. UT takes a lot more shots, but Kentucky is a little more accurate. Some of the numbers are heavily one-sided, though:

•  UT rebounds much, much better on the offensive glass. UK is a little better on the defensive end, but a not-inconsequential part of that is Patterson.
•  Many more assists per game for UT. That speaks of team play, and (again) the loss of Patterson can't help team cohesion.
•  Kentucky averages nearly one DQ for every two games, even though they foul a bit less. A part of that is that their starters do not get as much rest time because they do not use their bench as much.

Every sign points in UT's favor in this one. But Kentucky's going to do everything they can for the upset. UT is worried about winning the East and about tournament seeding, while UK is worried about making the tournament period. Their motivation is a little greater. Tennessee plays with a lot of passion and heart. It could get interesting.