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TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS V. LOUISVILLE CARDINALS: THE STATS SAY VOLS, THE REST SAYS CARDS

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Stats yet again courtesy of StatSheet.com. The usual caveats apply. Analysis with actual words below.


Tennessee Logo

Louisville Logo

Rankings
Conf Standing 1 2
AP Rank 5 13
RPI 0.6759 0.6223
RPI Rank 1 13
SOS 0.6044 0.5844
SOS Rank 1 6
Wins & Losses
Overall
30-4
(88.2%)
25-8
(75.8%)
Home
16-0
(100.0%)
15-2
(88.2%)
Away
10-2
(83.3%)
8-3
(72.7%)
Neutral
4-2
(66.7%)
2-3
(40.0%)
Conference
14-2
(87.5%)
14-4
(77.8%)
Top 25
3-2
(60.0%)
4-1
(80.0%)
Blowout (> 19)
8-0
(100.0%)
9-0
(100.0%)
Close (< 6)
8-1
(88.8%)
4-4
(50.0%)
Overtime
0-0
(0.0%)
0-0
(0.0%)
NCAA Tourney
0-0
(0.0%)
0-0
(0.0%)
Scoring
Points
2810
(4)
2381
(87)
Points Per Game
82.6
(5)
72.2
(112)
Shooting
FG Made
990
(8)
845
(71)
FG Attempts
2143
(6)
1852
(89)
FG Pct
46.2
(65)
45.6
(91)
FT Made
528
(36)
438
(172)
FT Attempts
802
(17)
673
(124)
FT Pct
65.8
(275)
65.1
(291)
3pt FG Made
302
(12)
253
(60)
3pt FG Attempts
836
(8)
728
(39)
3pt FG Pct
36.1
(122)
34.8
(178)
Rebounds
Rebounds
1362
(33)
1312
(58)
Rebounds Per Game
40.1
(77)
39.8
(85)
Off Rebounds
477
(12)
381
(113)
Off Rebs Per Game
14.0
(21)
11.5
(162)
Def Rebounds
807
(63)
854
(31)
Def Rebs Per Game
23.7
(126)
25.9
(30)
Assists, Steals, & Blocks
Assists
613
(2)
489
(63)
Assists Per Game
18.0
(6)
14.8
(72)
Steals
318
(7)
269
(39)
Steals Per Game
9.4
(10)
8.2
(56)
Blocks
115
(110)
163
(26)
Blocks Per Game
3.4
(130)
4.9
(32)
Turnovers & Fouls
Turnovers
437
(208)
440
(195)
Turnovers Per Game
12.9
(276)
13.3
(250)
Fouls
696
(11)
599
(133)
Fouls Per Game
20.5
(45)
18.2
(193)
  All Games Conference Games
Louisville Logo Tennessee Logo Louisville Logo Tennessee Logo Difference (adjusted for total games played)
Total Games
33
34
18
16
1
Wins
25
30
14
14
5
Losses
8
4
4
2
4
Pct
0.76
0.88
0.78
0.88
0.12
Field Goals Made
845
990
460
455
119.39
Field Goals Attempted
1852
2143
993
1009
234.88
Field Goal Percentage
0.46
0.46
0.46
0.45
0.01
Free Throws Made
438
528
238
234
76.73
Free Throws Attempted
673
802
365
356
108.61
Free Throw Percentage
0.65
0.66
0.65
0.66
0.01
3pt Field Goals Made
253
302
124
138
41.33
3pt Field Goals Attempted
728
836
370
366
85.94
3pt Field Goal Percentage
0.35
0.36
0.34
0.38
0.01
Points
2381
2810
1282
1282
356.85
Points Per Game
72.2
82.6
71.2
80.1
10.4
Rebounds
1312
1362
685
683
10.24
Rebounds Per Game
39.8
40.1
38.1
42.7
0.3
Offensive Rebounds
381
477
185
242
84.45
Offensive Rebounds Per Game
11.5
14
10.3
15.1
2.5
Defensive Rebounds
854
807
466
395
-72.88
Defensive Rebounds Per Game
25.9
23.7
25.9
24.7
-2.2
Assists
489
613
271
257
109.18
Assists Per Game
14.8
18
15.1
16.1
3.2
Steals
269
318
158
121
40.85
Steals Per Game
8.2
9.4
8.8
7.6
1.2
Turnovers
440
437
226
208
16.33
Turnovers Per Game
13.3
12.9
12.6
13
0.4
Blocks
163
115
75
57
-52.94
Blocks Per Game
4.9
3.4
4.2
3.6
-1.5
Fouls
599
696
325
336
78.85
Fouls Per Game
18.2
20.5
18.1
21
2.3
Disqualifications
10
6
4
4
4

I don't know about you, but this was a huge surprise to me. The numbers say the Vols have an edge in every category but defensive rebounds and blocked shots, and all of this was against a (slightly) stronger schedule. The good:

  • Tennessee has five more wins and four fewer losses;
  • Shooting percentage, free throw percentage, and 3-point percentage are all essentially equal, but the Vols have more attempts in each of those categories despite Pitino's reputation for a killer pace;
  • Tennessee averages a full ten points more per game than does Louisville;
  • Total rebounds are about even, with Tennessee averaging slightly more of the offensive variety and the Cards averaging a couple more of the defensive variety; and
  • The Vols have a slight edge in ball control stats.

But here's the thing. The margins on those statistical categories are all pretty slim, with the only notable exception being total points per game. Also, we're utilizing a point guard getting only his second college career start. Oh, and Chris Lofton's in the dreaded walking boot.

And, of course, there's this:

We almost let Butler sneak into the lead at just the wrong time on Sunday. Louisville had no such problem with Oklahoma. Perhaps that could cut either way, but I'm wary of sharp edges regardless.

And that big black stormcloud churning ominously toward us? KenPom's pythag bracket, which puts Louisville's chance of winning at 55.91% and Tennessee's at 44.09%. So, you know, ignore this and go with the Total Homers and Wild Bearded Men, who are, after all, in the lead.