Stats yet again courtesy of StatSheet.com. The usual caveats apply. Analysis with actual words below.
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Rankings
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| Conf Standing | 1 | 2 | ||
| AP Rank | 5 | 13 | ||
| RPI | 0.6759 | 0.6223 | ||
| RPI Rank | 1 | 13 | ||
| SOS | 0.6044 | 0.5844 | ||
| SOS Rank | 1 | 6 | ||
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Wins & Losses
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| Overall |
30-4
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(88.2%)
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25-8
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(75.8%)
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| Home |
16-0
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(100.0%)
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15-2
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(88.2%)
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| Away |
10-2
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(83.3%)
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8-3
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(72.7%)
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| Neutral |
4-2
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(66.7%)
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2-3
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(40.0%)
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| Conference |
14-2
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(87.5%)
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14-4
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(77.8%)
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| Top 25 |
3-2
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(60.0%)
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4-1
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(80.0%)
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| Blowout (> 19) |
8-0
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(100.0%)
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9-0
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(100.0%)
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| Close (< 6) |
8-1
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(88.8%)
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4-4
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(50.0%)
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| Overtime |
0-0
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(0.0%)
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0-0
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(0.0%)
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| NCAA Tourney |
0-0
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(0.0%)
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0-0
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(0.0%)
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Scoring
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| Points |
2810
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(4)
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2381
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(87)
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| Points Per Game |
82.6
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(5)
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72.2
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(112)
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Shooting
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| FG Made |
990
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(8)
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845
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(71)
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| FG Attempts |
2143
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(6)
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1852
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(89)
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| FG Pct |
46.2
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(65)
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45.6
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(91)
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| FT Made |
528
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(36)
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438
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(172)
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| FT Attempts |
802
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(17)
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673
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(124)
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| FT Pct |
65.8
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(275)
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65.1
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(291)
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| 3pt FG Made |
302
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(12)
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253
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(60)
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| 3pt FG Attempts |
836
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(8)
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728
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(39)
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| 3pt FG Pct |
36.1
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(122)
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34.8
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(178)
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Rebounds
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| Rebounds |
1362
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(33)
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1312
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(58)
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| Rebounds Per Game |
40.1
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(77)
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39.8
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(85)
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| Off Rebounds |
477
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(12)
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381
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(113)
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| Off Rebs Per Game |
14.0
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(21)
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11.5
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(162)
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| Def Rebounds |
807
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(63)
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854
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(31)
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| Def Rebs Per Game |
23.7
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(126)
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25.9
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(30)
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Assists, Steals, & Blocks
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| Assists |
613
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(2)
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489
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(63)
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| Assists Per Game |
18.0
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(6)
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14.8
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(72)
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| Steals |
318
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(7)
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269
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(39)
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| Steals Per Game |
9.4
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(10)
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8.2
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(56)
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| Blocks |
115
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(110)
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163
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(26)
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| Blocks Per Game |
3.4
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(130)
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4.9
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(32)
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Turnovers & Fouls
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| Turnovers |
437
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(208)
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440
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(195)
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| Turnovers Per Game |
12.9
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(276)
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13.3
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(250)
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| Fouls |
696
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(11)
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599
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(133)
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| Fouls Per Game |
20.5
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(45)
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18.2
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(193)
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| All Games | Conference Games | ||||
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Difference (adjusted for total games played) | |
| Total Games |
33
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34
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18
|
16
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1
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| Wins |
25
|
30
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14
|
14
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5
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| Losses |
8
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4
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4
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2
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4
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| Pct |
0.76
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0.88
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0.78
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0.88
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0.12
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| Field Goals Made |
845
|
990
|
460
|
455
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119.39
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| Field Goals Attempted |
1852
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2143
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993
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1009
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234.88
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| Field Goal Percentage |
0.46
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0.46
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0.46
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0.45
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0.01
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| Free Throws Made |
438
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528
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238
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234
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76.73
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| Free Throws Attempted |
673
|
802
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365
|
356
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108.61
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| Free Throw Percentage |
0.65
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0.66
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0.65
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0.66
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0.01
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| 3pt Field Goals Made |
253
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302
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124
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138
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41.33
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| 3pt Field Goals Attempted |
728
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836
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370
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366
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85.94
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| 3pt Field Goal Percentage |
0.35
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0.36
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0.34
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0.38
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0.01
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| Points |
2381
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2810
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1282
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1282
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356.85
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| Points Per Game |
72.2
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82.6
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71.2
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80.1
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10.4
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| Rebounds |
1312
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1362
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685
|
683
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10.24
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| Rebounds Per Game |
39.8
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40.1
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38.1
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42.7
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0.3
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| Offensive Rebounds |
381
|
477
|
185
|
242
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84.45
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| Offensive Rebounds Per Game |
11.5
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14
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10.3
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15.1
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2.5
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| Defensive Rebounds |
854
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807
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466
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395
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-72.88
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| Defensive Rebounds Per Game |
25.9
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23.7
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25.9
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24.7
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-2.2
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| Assists |
489
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613
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271
|
257
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109.18
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| Assists Per Game |
14.8
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18
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15.1
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16.1
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3.2
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| Steals |
269
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318
|
158
|
121
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40.85
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| Steals Per Game |
8.2
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9.4
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8.8
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7.6
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1.2
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| Turnovers |
440
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437
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226
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208
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16.33
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| Turnovers Per Game |
13.3
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12.9
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12.6
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13
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0.4
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| Blocks |
163
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115
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75
|
57
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-52.94
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| Blocks Per Game |
4.9
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3.4
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4.2
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3.6
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-1.5
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| Fouls |
599
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696
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325
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336
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78.85
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| Fouls Per Game |
18.2
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20.5
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18.1
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21
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2.3
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| Disqualifications |
10
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6
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4
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4
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4
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I don't know about you, but this was a huge surprise to me. The numbers say the Vols have an edge in every category but defensive rebounds and blocked shots, and all of this was against a (slightly) stronger schedule. The good:
- Tennessee has five more wins and four fewer losses;
- Shooting percentage, free throw percentage, and 3-point percentage are all essentially equal, but the Vols have more attempts in each of those categories despite Pitino's reputation for a killer pace;
- Tennessee averages a full ten points more per game than does Louisville;
- Total rebounds are about even, with Tennessee averaging slightly more of the offensive variety and the Cards averaging a couple more of the defensive variety; and
- The Vols have a slight edge in ball control stats.
But here's the thing. The margins on those statistical categories are all pretty slim, with the only notable exception being total points per game. Also, we're utilizing a point guard getting only his second college career start. Oh, and Chris Lofton's in the dreaded walking boot.
And, of course, there's this:
We almost let Butler sneak into the lead at just the wrong time on Sunday. Louisville had no such problem with Oklahoma. Perhaps that could cut either way, but I'm wary of sharp edges regardless.
And that big black stormcloud churning ominously toward us? KenPom's pythag bracket, which puts Louisville's chance of winning at 55.91% and Tennessee's at 44.09%. So, you know, ignore this and go with the Total Homers and Wild Bearded Men, who are, after all, in the lead.