clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

College BlogPoll Ballot: Week 6 Draft

New, 5 comments

Here is the first draft for Rocky Top Talk's ballot for the college blogpoll.  Discussion of the numbers in the computer follows after the jump, including one significant change to the computer system that (I think) will make the numbers a little more reliable.

Quick Notes:

  • A lot of teams are tightly bunched together.  As you can see in the numbers below, many teams are statistically equivalent, which is the computer's way of conceding that six games isn't enough for definitive separation.  But hey, here we are.
  • Colley is out.  After waiting far too long (again) for Colley to update his rankings, I imported the strength of schedule numbers from Sagarin instead.  They operate in the usual manner:  the 1-AA teams are filtered out, the scores are then scaled with an average of zero (i.e. positive is above average) and a standard deviation of 1.  But Sagarin actually updates in a prompt and timely manner.
  • Sagarin appears to be more reliable.  The one sticky point about Colley is that he lumps 1-AA teams into groupings.  In other words, if Charleston Southern and Northwestern State get lumped together, then Florida and Baylor have their schedules intrinsically tied together through those schools.  This makes little sense.  And having compared the effect of Sagarin's and Colley's SOS metrics on the computer, I think I will probably stay with Sagarin going forward.
  • Weights are changed.  Partly due to the switch to Sagarin and partly due to the increasing data, the weights are now:  W/L = 25; SOS = 15; Pass Efficiency Defense (PED) = 9; Run Defense (RD) = 8; Third Down Offense (3DO) = 7; Total Defense (TD) = 6; Pass Efficiency Offense (PEO) = 5; Opponents' Points Per Game (OPPG) = 3; Total Offense = 2; Third Down Defense (3DD) = 1.

Computer Standings

For convenience, only the top 35 are shown.  I will probably put the entire list out later on in a dedicated post.

Rank Team WL SOS PED RD 3DO TD PEO OPPG TO 3DD W SUM
1 Florida 1.721 0.262 2.251 1.166 2.039 2.359 1.976 2.324 1.742 1.780 156.901
2 Alabama 1.721 0.857 1.905 1.649 -0.040 2.077 0.741 1.515 1.065 2.072 136.874
3 Texas 1.721 -0.798 1.372 2.081 1.031 1.880 0.885 1.183 1.632 2.546 114.014
4 Virginia Tech 1.076 2.119 1.264 0.357 0.020 0.663 1.592 0.829 0.141 1.541 110.243
5 Boise St. 1.721 0.046 1.475 0.842 0.078 1.238 1.883 1.262 0.980 0.839 108.275
6 TCU 1.721 -0.254 1.112 1.255 0.390 1.625 0.913 1.156 0.623 1.351 101.722
7 Southern Cal 0.947 1.246 1.669 1.668 -1.468 1.792 0.241 2.032 0.837 1.271 100.567
8 Iowa 1.721 0.751 1.704 0.123 0.423 0.742 -0.171 1.073 -0.258 0.093 98.728
9 Nebraska 0.947 0.409 1.845 0.646 0.908 1.244 0.703 2.112 0.416 0.641 94.724
10 Cincinnati 1.721 -1.081 0.884 0.762 1.291 0.599 1.639 1.342 1.447 -0.075 84.621
11 Ohio St. 1.076 0.515 1.293 1.127 -0.146 1.269 -0.019 1.581 -0.658 0.332 80.898
12 Oregon 1.076 1.244 1.603 0.504 -1.264 1.127 -0.282 1.006 -0.304 0.608 78.465
13 Penn St. 1.076 -1.175 1.212 1.290 1.942 1.523 0.473 1.824 0.787 0.817 78.359
14 South Fla. 1.721 -2.196 1.467 0.779 0.739 1.408 2.025 1.926 0.562 1.339 75.956
15 Miami (FL) 0.947 1.699 0.071 -0.216 0.361 0.495 1.147 0.042 0.182 0.297 74.184
16 BYU 1.076 -0.150 -0.186 0.560 2.850 0.206 1.771 0.277 1.352 -1.111 73.982
17 LSU 1.076 1.100 1.119 0.231 -0.184 0.471 0.291 1.249 -1.361 -0.546 72.580
18 Utah 0.947 0.405 1.396 0.042 0.282 0.785 0.242 0.705 0.951 2.162 70.012
19 West Virginia 0.947 -0.370 0.562 1.228 1.394 0.668 0.981 0.042 1.139 0.460 67.347
20 Georgia Tech 1.076 1.212 -1.260 0.097 1.609 -0.515 1.930 -0.343 0.774 -0.929 64.110
21 Wisconsin 1.076 0.731 -0.341 0.379 1.369 0.303 0.439 -0.233 0.703 -0.275 64.018
22 Arizona 0.173 1.707 0.510 0.913 0.334 1.112 -0.011 0.042 0.695 -0.632 63.761
23 Kansas 1.721 -1.621 -0.150 1.082 1.385 0.023 1.409 0.785 2.277 0.772 62.433
24 Oklahoma 0.173 0.121 0.832 1.917 -0.046 1.518 0.695 2.059 1.265 0.516 62.272
25 South Carolina 1.076 -0.121 0.538 0.234 -0.075 1.135 0.285 0.741 -0.140 0.029 51.219
26 Notre Dame 0.947 0.814 -0.407 0.006 0.031 -0.799 2.090 0.015 1.476 -0.100 50.675
27 Idaho 1.076 -0.029 -1.022 0.916 1.884 0.028 0.710 -0.210 0.684 -2.314 49.282
28 Auburn 1.076 0.152 0.676 -0.551 0.449 -0.266 0.830 -0.432 1.797 -0.075 47.880
29 Central Mich. 1.076 -1.487 0.524 0.134 1.558 0.868 1.090 1.227 0.274 0.706 45.544
30 Missouri 0.947 -0.278 0.519 0.264 0.092 0.290 0.538 0.811 0.461 -0.670 42.035
31 Wake Forest 0.431 0.217 -0.235 0.456 1.363 -0.135 1.523 0.277 0.763 -0.765 41.355
32 Stanford 0.431 0.827 -0.152 0.353 0.526 0.073 0.494 0.476 0.409 0.048 41.354
33 Tennessee -0.215 0.957 1.160 0.660 -0.275 1.266 -0.009 0.586 0.222 0.820 41.188
34 Pittsburgh 1.076 -0.305 -0.730 0.675 -0.049 0.261 1.667 0.675 0.160 0.004 40.831
35 UCLA 0.173 1.204 1.454 0.362 -1.076 1.052 -1.192 0.891 -1.558 0.911 39.062

 

Visually, here's the distribution of scores among all 1-A teams:

Week_6_score_distribution_medium

Here are just the top 25:

Week_6_score_top_25_medium

And a look at the conference averages:

Week_6_conference_medium

There you go.  Should any changes be made?  If so, what?  This is the draft, but the final ballot can have human overrides if there is sufficient reason to do so.