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RTT BlogPoll Computer Rankings: BCS Week

By David Hooper

This is the first week of the BCS rankings, where everybody's flawed methods are supposed to magically cancel each other by averaging them together.  Ah, well.  Here are the rankings as given through the RTT Computer BlogPoll Ranking System Thingy.

Comments follow below.

  • Alabama/Florida  Yes, I know that Alabama should probably be on top.  The numbers keep insisting on Florida (see below).  Why?  Because (a) Florida has a massively superior 3rd down offense (3DO) and (b) Florida's Passing Efficiency Offense (PEO) is off the charts.  These offset Alabama's Strength of Schedule (SOS) advantage in the computer by a considerable margin, which brings up two discussion points.  One:  Florida 'cheats' the system by not passing against good defenses and attempting only high-percentage passes otherwise.  That, and they have a tendency to pass in the red zone, increasing their TD/Attempt ratio.  These combine for the most efficient passing game in the nation, even though it's not the most effective.  So here's a project for the offseason:  figure out a way to measure effectiveness rather than efficiency.  Two:  What if Florida's offense really is unbeatable, in the sense of winning games?  It's ugly and hideous to watch, but so long as Tebow holds up, they have an amazing knack of converting third downs, even when everybody knows it's going to be a qb sneak up the middle.  Just a thought.
  • Texas  I wish the computers would drop them further.  They're a terrible first-half team and are lucky to scrape by Oklahoma based on a hideous number of turnovers.  I'd have no problem dropping them manually in the final BlogPoll ballot.  Talk to me.
  • Cincinnati  They have two problems.  First, their SOS is still very low, even after South Florida (though much better).  Second, they're an offense-led team, which is more volatile than defense and therefore correlates less to success.    The defense is alright, but is lowest-rated of the top 12.  Hang in there, though; continued success will see them move upwards.
  • Arizona  Puzzler for me, too. So far, though, they've had respectable losses against Iowa and Washington and a pretty impressive schedule so far.
  • Idaho?  That 6-1 mark is buoying them, as well as a better-than-appears SOS (though still below average).  They're in by a knife's edge, though, and will drop precipitously at the next loss.  Same with Central Michigan, really.

BlogPoll Raw Data

BONUS:  If you want to play around with the weights, here is the data in Excel 2003 form and in Excel 2007 form.  I use '07 when I edit the sheet, so that's probably the safer bet if you have the choice, but both seem to work fine for me.

Rank Team WL SOS PED RD 3DO TD PEO OPPG TO 3DD SCORE
1 Florida 1.825 0.215 1.923 1.044 1.586 2.087 2.036 2.116 1.625 2.023 148.081
2 Alabama 1.825 0.861 2.039 1.769 -0.130 2.117 0.403 1.715 0.955 1.456 139.973
3 Texas 1.825 -0.015 1.301 2.398 0.526 1.795 0.415 1.287 1.173 2.571 125.440
4 TCU 1.825 0.024 1.181 1.360 0.578 1.928 1.248 1.425 0.938 1.649 119.943
5 Iowa 1.825 1.187 1.791 0.298 0.422 0.992 0.084 1.241 -0.444 0.322 116.573
6 Southern Cal. 1.154 1.583 1.329 1.669 -1.075 1.564 0.836 1.701 1.135 1.141 114.139
7 Boise St. 1.825 0.349 1.122 0.937 -0.081 1.277 1.899 1.172 0.912 1.170 113.025
8 Penn St. 1.250 -1.071 1.393 1.492 2.320 1.913 0.642 2.110 0.968 0.910 98.467
9 Cincinnati 1.825 -0.368 1.018 0.563 0.777 0.494 1.487 1.334 1.390 0.243 94.611
10 Virginia Tech 0.674 2.201 1.408 -0.222 -0.122 0.614 1.772 0.669 0.050 1.029 93.319
11 Miami (FL) 1.154 1.322 0.386 0.162 0.499 0.808 1.501 0.436 0.149 0.208 87.790
12 Oregon 1.154 1.374 1.657 0.536 -1.289 1.219 -0.274 1.057 -0.295 0.616 84.907
13 BYU 1.250 -0.401 -0.462 0.903 3.339 0.245 1.998 0.176 1.607 -0.937 81.395
14 Utah 1.154 0.222 1.468 0.238 0.470 0.792 0.467 0.827 0.732 1.669 78.118
15 Georgia Tech 1.250 1.712 -1.317 -0.013 1.755 -0.386 1.584 -0.279 0.697 -0.662 77.477
16 West Virginia 1.154 -0.472 0.908 1.383 0.860 1.021 1.069 0.436 0.860 0.663 76.765
17 LSU 1.154 1.057 1.162 0.254 -0.152 0.530 0.352 1.310 -1.429 -0.536 76.058
18 Nebraska 0.482 0.383 1.414 1.009 0.823 1.382 0.457 1.679 0.132 0.446 74.923
19 Arizona 0.482 2.115 -0.109 0.761 0.522 0.370 0.437 -0.279 1.158 -0.632 71.358
20 Ohio St. 0.674 0.437 1.206 1.207 -0.181 1.157 -0.154 1.379 -0.802 0.269 63.736
21 Pittsburgh 1.250 -0.280 -0.452 0.945 0.514 0.427 1.644 0.748 0.172 0.121 58.794
22 Idaho 1.250 -0.252 -0.991 1.030 2.426 -0.156 1.133 -0.160 0.764 -2.602 57.949
23 South Carolina 0.674 0.911 0.824 -0.183 0.167 1.049 -0.272 0.748 -0.348 0.159 54.662
24 Central Mich. 1.250 -1.092 0.449 0.308 1.067 0.474 1.196 1.122 0.401 0.531 52.292
25 Texas Tech 0.674 -0.306 0.356 0.886 0.447 0.233 1.631 0.590 1.860 -0.132 50.126
26 South Fla. 1.154 -1.825 1.290 0.498 0.212 1.134 1.296 1.449 0.526 1.358 47.640
27 Wisconsin 0.674 0.745 -0.576 0.595 1.041 0.472 0.149 -0.121 0.309 -0.265 47.480
28 Oklahoma -0.189 0.220 1.102 1.654 -0.469 1.594 0.363 1.978 0.967 0.765 47.453
29 Kansas 1.154 -1.232 -0.098 0.918 0.923 0.139 1.299 0.458 2.197 0.269 45.229
30 Oregon St. 0.482 0.556 -0.187 0.982 0.912 -0.305 0.393 0.136 0.178 0.525 42.435
31 Navy 0.674 -0.356 0.002 0.510 1.261 0.616 0.678 0.234 -0.171 1.462 41.179
32 Oklahoma St. 1.154 -1.075 0.534 0.738 0.201 -0.148 1.252 0.250 0.625 0.945 40.935
33 Tennessee -0.189 0.635 1.204 0.696 -0.248 1.365 0.025 0.619 0.271 0.828 38.280
34 Notre Dame 0.482 1.424 -0.827 0.093 -0.043 -1.074 1.787 -0.210 1.318 -0.265 37.838
35 California 0.482 1.213 -0.312 0.406 0.030 -0.335 -0.130 0.112 0.549 0.446 37.178
36 Arizona St. 0.482 -0.569 0.837 1.894 -1.048 1.765 -0.870 1.103 -0.129 1.239 36.308
37 Fresno St. -0.189 1.219 -0.068 0.181 1.324 -0.184 0.663 -0.164 1.463 0.502 35.557
38 Mississippi 0.482 -0.491 1.833 -0.166 -0.291 0.899 -0.213 1.518 -0.205 2.173 35.144
39 Stanford 0.098 1.113 -0.530 0.334 0.565 -0.374 1.070 0.057 0.918 -0.137 32.091
40 Auburn 0.674 0.200 0.906 -0.935 0.270 -0.215 0.413 -0.319 1.527 0.283 31.567
41 North Carolina 0.482 -0.655 1.849 0.643 -1.341 1.933 -0.856 1.356 -1.652 1.160 29.474
42 Michigan St. 0.098 0.549 -0.553 0.952 0.296 0.326 0.911 0.333 0.692 -0.605 29.262
43 Georgia 0.098 1.587 -0.386 0.304 -0.058 -0.182 -0.003 -0.515 -0.738 0.863 26.623
44 Michigan 0.674 -0.582 0.416 0.232 0.334 -0.145 0.235 0.293 0.861 0.541 24.092
45 Clemson -0.189 0.756 1.291 0.418 -1.027 1.396 -1.289 1.196 -0.863 1.030 23.702
46 Connecticut 0.482 -0.459 -0.193 0.719 0.259 0.695 0.289 0.803 -0.077 0.315 23.685
47 Houston 1.154 -0.459 -0.001 -1.879 1.401 -1.548 1.378 -0.555 3.189 -1.462 21.698
48 Missouri 0.482 -0.358 0.461 0.303 -0.332 0.293 0.260 0.505 0.485 -0.265 20.031
49 Virginia -0.189 0.493 1.528 0.208 -0.691 1.004 -0.895 0.734 -1.267 1.299 19.456
50 Washington -0.477 2.554 -1.071 -0.500 1.597 -1.158 -0.065 -0.536 -0.283 -0.011 17.868
51 Air Force 0.098 -1.071 1.324 0.298 0.277 1.453 -0.748 1.675 -0.539 1.498 16.118
52 UCLA -0.189 1.415 0.908 -0.242 -1.107 0.566 -1.243 0.297 -1.162 0.770 14.191
53 Boston College 0.674 -0.465 0.146 0.537 -1.031 0.418 -0.048 0.452 -0.884 1.258 14.035
54 Wake Forest 0.098 -0.063 -0.295 0.239 0.894 -0.156 1.077 -0.022 0.234 -0.559 13.988
55 Tulsa 0.482 -1.361 0.203 0.670 -0.333 0.693 1.393 0.803 0.300 0.715 13.983
56 La.-Monroe 0.482 -0.860 0.009 1.082 0.328 -0.021 0.255 -0.532 0.303 -0.937 11.617
57 Troy 0.482 0.034 -0.422 0.418 -0.524 -0.473 0.584 -0.555 0.749 0.487 10.927
58 Ohio 0.674 -0.911 1.292 -0.330 -0.662 0.252 -0.239 0.393 -0.700 0.669 10.245
59 Kentucky -0.189 1.702 0.285 -1.013 -0.181 0.105 -1.269 -0.095 -0.672 -0.102 8.078
60 Arkansas -0.189 1.742 -1.030 -0.071 -1.846 -0.708 1.092 -0.417 1.025 0.487 1.410
61 Southern Miss. 0.098 -1.249 0.194 0.507 0.341 0.437 0.583 0.176 0.570 0.616 -0.331
62 Kansas St. 0.098 -0.384 -0.216 0.782 -0.698 0.250 0.151 0.017 -0.178 0.377 -1.896
63 East Carolina 0.098 -0.674 -0.346 0.667 0.824 0.040 -0.887 0.116 -0.822 -0.204 -6.609
64 Minnesota 0.098 0.771 -0.248 -0.552 -0.313 -0.636 -0.712 0.096 -1.451 -1.868 -8.237
65 Purdue -1.053 0.999 0.607 -0.281 0.578 -0.197 -0.062 -0.653 0.453 -0.588 -8.882
66 Northwestern 0.098 -1.654 -0.478 0.569 1.519 0.193 0.319 0.136 0.068 0.328 -9.678
67 Florida St. -0.861 1.951 -1.757 -0.738 1.148 -1.193 1.041 -0.579 0.851 -0.628 -10.553
68 Marshall 0.098 0.172 0.419 -0.605 -0.161 -0.428 -1.169 0.136 -1.121 -1.302 -10.735
69 Northern Ill. -0.189 -0.390 -0.269 0.078 0.201 0.045 0.314 0.712 -0.338 -1.066 -10.783
70 Nevada -0.189 -0.015 -1.689 0.525 1.220 -0.752 0.254 -0.717 1.782 -0.480 -12.007
71 Iowa St. 0.098 -0.666 -0.481 -0.006 0.669 -0.532 -0.654 0.333 0.553 0.297 -13.926
72 Rutgers 0.482 -2.167 -0.054 1.124 -0.454 0.657 -0.470 0.872 -0.451 0.149 -14.408
73 Colorado St. -0.477 1.277 -0.572 0.138 -1.295 -0.560 0.436 -0.653 -0.494 -2.028 -14.865
74 NC St. -0.477 -0.726 -0.914 1.027 0.738 0.718 0.296 -0.436 0.237 0.029 -15.662
75 Buffalo -0.477 -0.896 0.282 -0.199 0.897 0.387 0.556 -0.062 0.264 -0.428 -16.213
76 Temple 0.482 -1.766 -0.186 0.803 -0.656 0.566 -0.433 0.665 -1.191 0.149 -16.400
77 Mississippi St. -0.477 -0.015 0.041 0.311 -0.518 -0.003 -0.719 -0.002 0.229 0.297 -19.498
78 La.-Lafayette 0.482 -0.965 -0.393 -0.635 0.639 -0.399 -0.668 -0.739 -0.637 -1.100 -20.852
79 Indiana 0.098 -0.452 -0.799 -0.068 -0.244 -0.435 -0.202 -0.298 -0.161 -0.496 -23.588
80 UCF -0.189 -1.088 -0.776 1.150 0.259 0.172 -0.534 0.389 -1.264 -0.428 -25.253
81 Toledo 0.098 -0.433 -0.010 -1.024 0.030 -1.331 0.769 -1.937 1.413 -1.661 -25.789
82 SMU -0.189 0.248 0.889 -0.841 -1.609 -0.636 -0.569 -0.924 -0.211 -0.392 -26.239
83 Texas A&M -0.189 -0.976 -0.462 -0.601 1.109 -0.644 0.479 -1.292 1.744 0.945 -26.522
84 Duke -0.189 -0.817 -0.436 -0.235 -0.203 -0.071 0.783 -0.441 0.355 -0.417 -26.844
85 Wyoming 0.098 -0.726 0.285 0.000 -0.963 -0.300 -1.455 0.057 -0.845 0.136 -28.475
86 Bowling Green -0.477 0.086 0.039 -1.445 0.123 -0.511 0.131 -0.693 0.550 1.188 -28.622
87 Baylor -0.189 -0.573 0.768 -0.964 -0.764 -0.650 -0.165 0.181 -0.167 -1.066 -30.929
88 Louisiana Tech -0.189 -1.327 0.216 -1.234 0.716 -0.137 -0.088 0.274 -0.138 -0.543 -35.583
89 Western Mich. -0.477 -0.302 -0.429 -0.968 0.518 -0.813 0.029 -0.398 0.257 0.215 -36.576
90 Hawaii -0.861 -0.043 -0.528 -1.372 1.500 -0.846 0.764 -0.786 1.150 -2.013 -37.922
91 San Diego St. -0.861 0.006 -0.078 -0.223 -0.357 0.194 -0.365 -0.532 -0.977 -1.363 -39.480
92 Colorado -0.861 0.892 -0.972 -0.002 -0.082 -0.672 -1.419 -0.832 -1.142 0.546 -40.560
93 Middle Tenn. -0.189 -0.560 0.118 -0.796 -1.288 -0.432 -0.963 -0.394 -0.092 0.353 -44.283
94 Louisville -0.861 0.301 -1.064 -0.414 -0.313 -0.085 -0.290 -0.532 -0.011 -0.657 -44.830
95 Arkansas St. -1.398 0.263 -1.334 0.709 -0.220 0.029 -0.513 0.329 -0.876 -0.137 -52.069
96 Vanderbilt -1.053 -1.043 1.452 -0.687 -0.885 0.834 -2.232 0.787 -0.817 0.757 -55.867
97 Syracuse -0.861 0.103 -1.519 0.990 -1.979 -0.454 -0.075 -0.763 -1.113 -0.052 -58.312
98 Maryland -1.053 -0.026 -0.709 -0.405 -0.266 -0.371 -0.485 -1.344 -0.706 0.482 -59.025
99 Army -0.477 -2.068 0.320 0.622 -1.315 1.150 -1.914 0.274 -1.538 -0.102 -60.896
100 North Texas -1.532 -0.435 0.284 -0.872 -0.272 -0.595 -0.578 -1.592 0.485 0.494 -75.214
101 Illinois -1.532 0.448 -0.748 -0.891 -0.034 -1.096 -1.187 -0.601 -0.324 -1.392 -76.608
102 Akron -1.532 -0.151 -0.385 -0.406 -0.546 0.009 -1.402 -0.302 -1.432 -1.385 -78.051
103 Tulane -0.861 -0.558 -1.647 -1.181 0.544 -0.953 -0.201 -1.615 -0.530 -1.834 -80.021
104 Kent St. -0.477 -1.758 0.079 -0.173 -2.441 -0.445 -0.962 0.155 -1.121 0.070 -80.548
105 New Mexico St. -0.477 -1.641 0.088 -1.046 -0.390 -0.152 -2.284 -0.436 -2.210 -0.621 -80.903
106 Miami (OH) -2.204 1.458 -0.473 -0.755 -0.492 -0.515 -1.612 -1.582 -1.116 -0.776 -81.328
107 UNLV -1.053 -0.377 -1.848 -1.534 1.471 -1.657 -0.305 -1.542 -0.019 -2.188 -85.055
108 Utah St. -1.532 -0.121 -0.200 -1.605 -1.248 -1.364 0.651 -1.223 1.109 -0.456 -86.822
109 San Jose St. -1.532 1.915 -0.802 -2.730 -1.776 -1.694 -0.699 -1.315 -1.577 -0.511 -89.320
110 Memphis -1.053 -1.346 -0.376 -1.056 -0.616 -0.834 -0.532 -0.734 -0.261 0.560 -89.489
111 Fla. Atlantic -1.398 0.329 -1.329 -2.143 0.393 -1.767 -0.314 -1.771 0.628 -1.000 -90.854
112 UTEP -0.861 0.032 -0.799 -1.719 -0.701 -2.290 -1.254 -1.499 -0.779 -1.182 -91.521
113 UAB -0.861 -0.601 -1.691 -0.170 -0.701 -1.769 -1.425 -1.453 -0.333 -1.376 -94.021
114 Washington St. -1.532 1.667 -1.306 -1.356 -2.104 -2.235 -1.649 -1.523 -1.876 0.510 -98.884
115 FIU -1.532 0.316 -0.877 -2.120 -0.608 -2.403 -0.554 -1.615 -0.686 -0.052 -106.320
116 Eastern Mich. -2.204 -0.388 -0.354 -2.360 -0.089 -0.564 -1.646 -1.453 -1.861 -0.895 -128.643
117 Ball St. -2.204 -1.066 -1.834 -0.409 -0.616 -0.953 -1.842 -0.891 -1.404 -0.145 -142.877
118 New Mexico -2.204 -0.205 -1.561 -0.708 -2.460 -1.253 -1.247 -1.914 -1.406 -1.038 -146.229
119 Rice -2.204 0.420 -1.996 -1.573 -1.186 -1.914 -1.873 -2.905 -1.315 -0.847 -148.996
120 Western Ky. -2.204 -0.069 -3.014 -3.020 -1.537 -2.180 -1.532 -2.006 -1.409 -2.757 -185.813

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