A weekly look at our upcoming opponent's recent history, with animated drive charts and links to SB Nation game pages.
This is a long post full of moving pictures and stats, so I'm putting the conclusions and predictions both at the beginning and at the end.
Conclusions
- Apart from Mark Ingram, who's become a legitimate contender for the Heisman Trophy, Alabama is a true team with no superstars. Julio Jones, Rolando McClain, and Terrence Cody are all superb players, but none shine in the national rankings. There can be no doubt, though, that the team is about as solid as they come, at least on defense.
- Field position will be key. This is purely anecdotal based on viewing the drive charts (see below), but Alabama seems to have benefitted greatly from excellent starting field position.
- The Crimson Tide's defense is absolutely suffocating, but their offense is merely very good. A woeful passing offense weighs down a terrific rushing attack.
Predictions
- Alabama 24, Tennessee 16.
Schedule and Animated Drive Charts
| @ Virginia Tech | Sat 09/05 | W 34 - 24 |
| Fla. International | Sat 09/12 | W 40 - 14 |
| North Texas | Sat 09/19 | W 53 - 7 |
| Arkansas | Sat 09/26 | W 35 - 7 |
| @ Kentucky | Sat 10/03 | W 38 - 20 |
| @ Mississippi | Sat 10/10 | W 22 - 3 |
| South Carolina | Sat 10/17 | W 20 - 6 |
| Tennessee | Sat 10/24 | 3:30 PM EDT |
| LSU | Sat 11/07 | TBA |
| @ Mississippi St. | Sat 11/14 | TBA |
| Chattanooga | Sat 11/21 | TBA |
| @ Auburn | Fri 11/27 | 2:30 PM EST |
Man, this game seems like forever ago. Note those three field goals early for 'Bama despite great starting field position. The beginning of a trend? Note, too, all of the segmented lines (punts) for Virginia Tech (going left). Definitely the beginning of a trend, there.
Hmm. Fifty-fifty TDs to FGs early in the game against an FCS opponent. No such problems late in the game. And man, they do seem to have good starting field position a lot of the time, don't they?
Yikes. That there is the picture of a dominating game, and it's not just because North Texas's school color is almost indistinguishable from the field. Seven TDs to two FGs for the Tide, and barely a whimper from the green flying thingies.
Wow. Defense. Against Ryan Mallett. Okay.
Again, what's with the starting field position? No wonder Lane Kiffin isn't willing to pay 15 yards a half for the right to wear orange jerseys.
There's that field position again. Ole Miss's defense did a pretty good job in this game, generally forcing the Tide into field goals instead of touchdowns. Don't look at the other end zone, though, because it's littered with four interceptions and a fumble. It's amazing this game was as close on the scoreboard as it was, but it could have been even closer if the Rebels could have done anything on offense other than turn the ball over.
Like someone I know (okay, me), this game is . . . ahem . . . well-muscled in the middle. And sloppy? Whoa. Turnovers galore, missed field goals on both sides, a continuance of the general trend of settling for field goals rather than touchdowns . . . I don't suppose we can hope for that this week, too, can we?
National Unit Rankings
Now on to the national rankings.
| Offensive Rankings | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Category | National Rank | Actual | National Leader | Actual | Conf Rank | Southeastern Conference Leader | Actual |
| Rushing Offense | 9 | 229.29 | Nevada | 292.83 | 3 | Florida | 259.83 |
| Scoring Offense | 13 | 34.57 | Texas | 42.00 | 3 | Florida | 36.33 |
| Total Offense | 21 | 432.00 | Houston | 560.33 | 4 | Florida | 470.50 |
| Sacks Allowed | T-26 | 1.14 | Oklahoma St. | .33 | 5 | Auburn | .71 |
| Passing Efficiency | 43 | 136.81 | Florida | 167.25 | 4 | Florida | 167.25 |
| Passing Offense | 76 | 202.71 | Houston | 431.50 | 8 | Arkansas | 302.50 |
Offensive observations. The Tide are 9th in the nation in rushing offense. Their total offense and scoring offense rankings of 21st and 13th would be much higher if it was not for their significantly below average passing offense. They actually put up more yards per game running the ball (229) than they do throwing it (203). They do not lead the league in any offensive category.
| Defensive Rankings | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Category | National Rank | Actual | National Leader | Actual | Conf Rank | Southeastern Conference Leader | Actual |
| Pass Efficiency Defense | 1 | 83.82 | Alabama | 83.82 | 1 | Alabama | 83.82 |
| Total Defense | 1 | 226.57 | Alabama | 226.57 | 1 | Alabama | 226.57 |
| Rushing Defense | 3 | 63.29 | Texas | 35.83 | 1 | Alabama | 63.29 |
| Scoring Defense | 4 | 11.57 | Florida | 8.67 | 2 | Florida | 8.67 |
| Sacks | 11 | 3.00 | Southern California | 4.33 | 1 | Alabama | 3.00 |
| Pass Defense | 12 | 163.29 | North Carolina | 125.17 | 6 | Florida | 133.33 |
| Tackles For Loss | 23 | 7.29 | Cincinnati | 10.17 | 2 | Arkansas | 7.83 |
Defensive observations. Oh, my. Alabama's defense is first in the nation in both pass efficiency defense and total defense, and it's first in the SEC in those two categories plus rushing defense and sacks. They're holding opponents to 226 yards per game (63 on the ground and 163 through the air), and they've averaging three sacks and over seven tackles for loss per game. They're 4th in the nation in scoring defense, holding opponents to an average of 11.57 points per game. They are good. Scary good.
| Special Teams and Turnovers Rankings | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Category | National Rank | Actual | National Leader | Actual | Conf Rank | Southeastern Conference Leader | Actual |
| Turnover Margin | 12 | 1.00 | Air Force | 2.43 | 3 | LSU | 1.17 |
| Punt Returns | 13 | 15.88 | Georgia Tech | 24.88 | 1 | Alabama | 15.88 |
| Kickoff Returns | 45 | 22.95 | Stanford | 32.48 | 7 | Arkansas | 30.36 |
| Net Punting | 90 | 33.87 | Georgia | 44.06 | 10 | Georgia | 44.06 |
Special teams and Turnovers. The Crimson Tide leads the league in punt returns and ranks high nationally in both punt returns and turnover margin. They're only a little better than average at returning kickoffs, and they're not good (hey, something they don't do well!) at punting.
Stastical Comparison
Here's how the two teams stack up against each other in each of the key statistical categories in Hooper's wizbang BlogPoll Computerer:
Yes, that's advantage Tide in everything that correlates to winning.
Players to watch for
| Category | Player | National Rank | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Mark Ingram | 4 | 129.29 |
| Trent Richardson | 51.29 | ||
| Passing Efficiency (Min. 15 Att./Game) | Greg McElroy | 40 | 137.57 |
| Total Offense | Greg McElroy | 74 | 193.14 |
| Mark Ingram | 129.29 | ||
| Trent Richardson | 51.29 | ||
| Receptions Per Game | Mark Ingram | 2.71 | |
| Colin Peek | 2.71 | ||
| Receiving Yards Per Game | Marquis Maze | 37.29 | |
| Colin Peek | 30.43 | ||
| Interceptions | Mark Barron | T-36 | .43 |
| Rolando McClain | .29 | ||
| Justin Woodall | .29 | ||
| Javier Arenas | .17 | ||
| Punting (Min. 3.6 Punts/Game) | P.J. Fitzgerald | T-33 | 42.33 |
| Punt Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game) | Javier Arenas | 7 | 16.88 |
| Kickoff Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game) | Javier Arenas | 18 | 27.80 |
| Field Goals | Leigh Tiffin | 3 | 2.29 |
| Scoring | Leigh Tiffin | T-7 | 10.29 |
| Mark Ingram | T-14 | 9.43 | |
| All-Purpose Runners | Mark Ingram | 17 | 155.86 |
| Javier Arenas | 94.17 | ||
| Sacks | Eryk Anders | T-68 | .57 |
| Javier Arenas | T-78 | .50 | |
| Marcell Dareus | T-78 | .50 | |
| Tackles | Rolando McClain | 7.00 | |
| Tackles For Loss | Eryk Anders | T-91 | 1.00 |
| Rolando McClain | .93 | ||
| Marcell Dareus | .79 | ||
| Terrence Cody | .71 |
Observations
Running backs. Alabama looks a lot like Tennessee here, but even better. Mark Ingram is a legit Heisman contender, ranking 4th in the nation in rushing at 129 yards per game. Complementing Ingram much like Bryce Brown complements Montario Hardesty, true freshman Trent Richardson is putting up an additional 51 yards per game. Ingram is also tied for 14th nationally in scoring, averaging 9.43 points per game.
Quarterbacks. Greg McElroy is about average, ranking 40th nationally in passing efficiency and 74th in total offense with 193 yards per game.
Receivers/Tight Ends. Huh. No Julio Jones listed here. The two leading receivers are Marquis Maze and Colin Peek with 37 and 30 yards per game respectively. Peek ties with RB Ingram for most receptions per game.
Defense. Mark Barron is tied for 36th nationally in interceptions, but other than that, no defensive players rank in the top half of the nation. Do not be fooled, though, as the team defensive rankings lead to the conclusion that while there may not be any superstar stat-gatherers on defense, the unit is solid at every position. No one seems to have found a weakness to exploit.
Special teams. Watch out for Javier Arenas (if he returns from injury) on both punt and kick returns. Leigh Tiffin is about as good a place-kicker as a team could hope for.
Head to Head Comparisons
 |
 |
Best Comparable
|
Result Against Best Comparable
|
Prediction
|
|
| UT rush v. AL rush defense |
184
|
63
|
Florida (95)
|
117
|
80
|
| UT pass v. AL pass defense |
209
|
163
|
Florida (133)
|
93
|
170
|
| AL rush v. UT rush defense |
110
|
229
|
Florida (260)
|
208
|
180
|
| AL pass v. UT pass defense |
162
|
202
|
Ohio (203)
|
319
|
200
|
| UT score |
32
|
12
|
Florida (9)
|
13
|
16
|
| AL score |
20
|
35
|
Florida (36)
Auburn (35) |
23
26 |
24
|
I supposed I should explain. This is not math. It's simply looking at each team's current respective performance in a particular aspect of the game (e.g., Tennessee's rushing game versus Alabama's rushing defense), then looking for the team that we've already played that compares best to Alabama's current performance and seeing how we did against that team, and then making a non-mathy but informed prediction about how we might do in that aspect of the game. Example: Tennessee is rushing for 184 yards per game, but Alabama is only allowing 63 yards per game on the ground. The best comparable (that we've already played) is Florida, which is allowing 95 yards on the ground, and we got 117 against them. So maybe we can expect to do just a little bit better than what Alabama typically allows -- 63 yards per game -- and manage 80 yards on the ground this Saturday.
The prediction then is that Alabama gains 120-150 more yards and scores 8-10 more points.
Conclusions
- Apart from Mark Ingram, who's become a legitimate contender for the Heisman Trophy, Alabama is not a team full of stars. Julio Jones, Rolando McClain, and Terrence Cody are all superb players, but none shine in the national rankings. There can be no doubt, though, that the team is about as solid as they come, at least on defense.
- Field position will be key. This is purely anecdotal based on viewing the drive charts, but Alabama seems to have benefitted greatly from excellent starting field position.
- The Crimson Tide's defense is absolutely suffocating, but their offense is merely very good. A woeful passing offense weighs down a terrific rushing attack.
Predictions
- Alabama gains 120-150 more yards than does Tennessee and wins 24-16.