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SEC Power Poll: Rocky Top Talk Ballot

By David Hooper
Powerpoll2009logo_medium

 

As always, our Power Poll ballot is taken directly from the RTT computer rankings for the BlogPoll.

  1. Florida Gators
  2. Alabama Crimson Tide
  3. LSU Tigers
  4. South Carolina Gamecocks
  5. Mississippi Rebels
  6. Tennessee Volunteers
  7. Georgia Bulldogs
  8. Auburn Tigers
  9. Kentucky Wildcats
  10. Arkansas Razorbacks
  11. Mississippi St. Bulldogs
  12. Vanderbilt Commodores

First, the table:

SEC Team WL SOS PED RD 3DO TD PEO OPPG TO 3DD SCORE
1 Florida 1.892 0.420 2.013 1.105 0.897 2.178 1.484 1.940 1.457 2.374 146.225
2 Alabama 1.892 0.805 1.908 1.792 -0.171 1.985 0.123 1.768 0.610 1.356 135.925
3 LSU 1.303 0.878 1.283 0.355 -0.110 0.903 0.479 1.424 -1.253 -0.363 84.657
4 South Carolina 0.861 0.512 1.113 -0.123 0.122 1.162 0.015 0.919 -0.176 0.281 60.270
5 Mississippi 0.714 -0.239 1.794 0.212 0.232 0.971 0.084 1.464 0.288 2.241 58.245
6 Tennessee -0.465 1.163 1.323 0.659 -0.194 1.490 -0.053 0.790 0.165 0.846 41.791
7 Georgia 0.124 1.604 -0.366 0.348 -0.043 -0.153 0.002 -0.498 -0.746 0.955 28.901
8 Auburn 0.345 0.685 0.706 -0.733 0.122 -0.205 0.227 -0.383 0.986 0.244 26.202
9 Kentucky 0.124 1.295 0.699 -0.737 -0.202 0.075 -1.296 0.156 -0.700 -0.777 17.014
10 Arkansas -0.465 2.017 -1.165 -0.287 -1.802 -1.079 0.812 -0.459 0.726 -0.054 -11.311
11 Mississippi St. -0.686 0.595 0.272 0.002 -0.814 -0.013 -0.883 -0.070 -0.090 0.743 -19.259
12 Vanderbilt -1.202 -0.526 0.995 -0.505 -0.899 0.628 -2.335 0.884 -0.957 0.751 -56.466

 

As always, the green highlights are the best in each column and the red highlights are the worst.  Since Florida doesn't have Alabama on the schedule and they can't play themselves, they will likely never sniff the 'toughest schedule' mark, but they're close to a clean sweep on everything else.  Some other observations:

  • Teams are settling into niches.  The spread between teams is growing.  The only team with a real opportunity to make wholesale changes in their favor is Tennessee, who plays both of the teams immediately ahead of them.  Win those, and Tennessee shoots up to #4.
  • Somebody tell Arkansas that defense matters.  Seriously.
  • While you're at it, have them look at third downs.  The Hogs are great when it's not an obvious passing down but seem to struggle when it's either obvious or trying to run for 3rd and short.  Boom or bust + bad defense is not a good combination.
  • And the worst schedule to boot.  Poor Vandy.  Poor, poor Vandy.
  • Third and Chavis gets a respite.  Kentucky takes the 'worst 3rd down defense' award for the week.
  • Spurrier/Nutt are close, as are Richt/Chizik.  UGA and AU appear to be on a collision for 7th in the SEC.

And in graphical form, for those who prefer pretty charts to raw numbers:

Sec_scores_week_8_medium

Other thoughts:

The "no Win/Loss" modification that Incipient_Senescence is a pretty neat trick and helps gauge teams without their win/loss records (i.e. purely by on-field performance without regards to end result).  Doing so produces the following grid:

SEC Team WL SOS PED RD 3DO TD PEO OPPG TO 3DD SCORE
1 Florida 1.892 0.420 2.013 1.105 0.897 2.178 1.484 1.940 1.457 2.374 127.024
2 Alabama 1.892 0.805 1.908 1.792 -0.171 1.985 0.123 1.768 0.610 1.356 112.126
3 Tennessee -0.465 1.163 1.323 0.659 -0.194 1.490 -0.053 0.790 0.165 0.846 81.214
4 LSU 1.303 0.878 1.283 0.355 -0.110 0.903 0.479 1.424 -1.253 -0.363 64.282
5 Mississippi 0.714 -0.239 1.794 0.212 0.232 0.971 0.084 1.464 0.288 2.241 52.390
6 South Carolina 0.861 0.512 1.113 -0.123 0.122 1.162 0.015 0.919 -0.176 0.281 48.742
7 Georgia 0.124 1.604 -0.366 0.348 -0.043 -0.153 0.002 -0.498 -0.746 0.955 36.258
8 Auburn 0.345 0.685 0.706 -0.733 0.122 -0.205 0.227 -0.383 0.986 0.244 22.487
9 Kentucky 0.124 1.295 0.699 -0.737 -0.202 0.075 -1.296 0.156 -0.700 -0.777 19.064
10 Arkansas -0.465 2.017 -1.165 -0.287 -1.802 -1.079 0.812 -0.459 0.726 -0.054 4.405
11 Mississippi St. -0.686 0.595 0.272 0.002 -0.814 -0.013 -0.883 -0.070 -0.090 0.743 2.775
12 Vanderbilt -1.202 -0.526 0.995 -0.505 -0.899 0.628 -2.335 0.884 -0.957 0.751 -28.019

 

And also in pretty graphic form:

Sec_scores_week_8_-_no_wl_medium

Tennessee is the team whose on-field performance is most above their win/loss record.  South Carolina dips the most because of being passed by Tennessee and losing a sliver of ground to Ole Miss, but that's really inconsequential.  For this, you would expect Tennessee to outperform their remaining competition, assuming everybody plays to their typical level.  But Florida and Alabama are still clearly the best, without or without the wins and losses.

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