UPDATE: If you're interested in seeing the numbers with the increased weight for strength of schedule, take a look here. That list is the next iteration in this week's draft, and may need a bit more tweaking. A small bump to the Win/Loss weighting may be warranted, but that's up to you all. -[Note by Hooper, 10/06/09 7:40 AM EDT ]
Ok, the numbers are finally in. The moves I anticipated earlier did pretty much happen, as well as a few I didn't notice. Midmajors appear to have a tough road ahead (mostly), especially if midmajors include "Big East". Everything is after the jump.
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Rank | Team | Delta |
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1 | Florida | |
2 | Alabama | |
3 | Texas | |
4 | TCU |
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5 | Southern Cal |
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6 | Kansas |
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7 | Iowa |
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8 | South Florida |
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9 | Penn State |
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10 | Boise State |
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11 | LSU |
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12 | Ohio State |
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13 | Cincinnati |
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14 | Virginia Tech |
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15 | Nebraska |
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16 | Auburn | |
17 | Wisconsin | |
18 | Connecticut |
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19 | Arizona |
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20 | Stanford | |
21 | West Virginia | |
22 | Oklahoma |
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23 | Brigham Young |
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24 | Miami (Florida) |
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25 | Oregon | |
Last week's ballot |
More motion than I expected...
- TCU??? They have numbers that are very considerably above average, with the exception of strength of schedule. But basically, the undefeated record and the considerably better third down offense offsets their SOS difference with Southern Cal.
- Kansas and Iowa. I'd feel better with these reversed, which is easily doable with a tweak to SOS weight. This may happen, depending on how much it appears to improve things. More on that below.
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South Florida, Boise State, Cincinnati would all move down further if SOS is increased. Virginia Tech would move upward in a big way.
- Oklahoma ahead of Miami despite a worse W/L record and SOS because their actual on-field metrics are still far and away better. They're very close, though (see below), so a small SOS bump would reverse that.
- Georgia Tech is the next one to climb up if SOS is bumped, even though they're behind NC State. The difference is small and Ga Tech overtakes before either climbs above a current top 25 team.
THE QUESTION TO YOU IS: SHOULD THE STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE BE WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY?
Most of the oddness that I see would be fixed by increasing the importance of strength of schedule. But take a look at the numbers below. When you read the table, remember that positive numbers mean above average (i.e. better) and negative numbers mean below average (i.e. worse). If you see a factor that seems to consistently improve the ballot by increasing it or decreasing it, leave a comment.
Oh, and look at this graphical representation to see how closely most of the top 25 teams are rated.
Basically, TCU through Virginia Tech are all within a reasonable margin of error of each other. So don't hesitate to fire away. I have no compulsion to switch Alabama and Texas, even though they are close, though.
Ok, the numbers (explanation here):
Rank | Team | WL | SOS | PED | RD | 3DO | TD | PEO | OPPG | TO | 3DD | W SUM |
1 | Florida | 1.629 | -0.357 | 2.333 | 0.999 | 2.361 | 2.113 | 2.063 | 2.124 | 2.316 | 1.358 | 149.597 |
2 | Alabama | 1.629 | 0.004 | 1.401 | 1.623 | 0.644 | 1.968 | 1.472 | 1.199 | 1.319 | 1.496 | 124.574 |
3 | Texas | 1.629 | -0.098 | 1.233 | 2.001 | 0.931 | 1.395 | 0.901 | 1.089 | 2.237 | 2.347 | 122.892 |
4 | TCU | 1.629 | -1.096 | 0.964 | 2.007 | 0.105 | 1.698 | 1.428 | 1.153 | 0.701 | 1.330 | 93.377 |
5 | Southern Cal | 0.889 | 0.611 | 1.619 | 1.615 | -1.371 | 1.716 | 0.200 | 1.950 | 0.813 | 1.168 | 89.237 |
6 | Kansas | 1.629 | -0.925 | -0.015 | 1.737 | 1.438 | 0.608 | 1.093 | 1.315 | 2.084 | 1.367 | 88.578 |
7 | Iowa | 1.629 | 0.581 | 1.563 | 0.350 | 0.380 | 0.733 | -0.213 | 1.328 | -0.262 | -0.155 | 88.359 |
8 | South Fla. | 1.629 | -1.399 | 1.423 | 0.734 | 0.712 | 1.341 | 1.932 | 1.846 | 0.546 | 1.232 | 86.329 |
9 | Penn St. | 0.889 | 0.016 | 0.998 | 1.139 | 1.990 | 1.301 | 0.097 | 1.561 | 0.370 | 0.758 | 85.545 |
10 | Boise St. | 1.629 | -1.164 | 1.430 | 0.795 | 0.088 | 1.175 | 1.795 | 1.199 | 0.951 | 0.758 | 82.904 |
11 | LSU | 1.629 | 0.610 | 1.282 | 0.469 | 0.301 | 0.441 | 0.469 | 1.147 | -0.900 | -0.560 | 82.296 |
12 | Ohio St. | 0.889 | 0.589 | 1.255 | 1.205 | 0.116 | 1.501 | 0.060 | 1.535 | -0.152 | 0.121 | 81.915 |
13 | Cincinnati | 1.629 | -1.033 | 0.854 | 0.716 | 1.233 | 0.552 | 1.558 | 1.276 | 1.404 | -0.110 | 81.056 |
14 | Virginia Tech | 0.889 | 1.891 | 1.104 | -0.033 | 0.041 | 0.162 | 0.742 | 0.681 | -0.029 | 0.977 | 78.140 |
15 | Nebraska | 0.704 | -0.140 | 1.248 | 0.492 | 0.872 | 0.996 | 1.061 | 2.157 | 0.960 | 0.316 | 72.316 |
16 | Auburn | 1.629 | -0.432 | 0.966 | -0.337 | 0.800 | 0.094 | 1.298 | -0.018 | 2.104 | -0.114 | 72.312 |
17 | Wisconsin | 1.629 | 0.052 | -0.454 | 0.223 | 2.001 | -0.194 | 1.063 | -0.122 | 0.854 | -0.583 | 68.073 |
18 | Connecticut | 0.704 | 0.266 | 0.457 | 1.544 | 0.273 | 1.814 | -0.537 | 1.121 | -0.249 | 1.795 | 67.437 |
19 | Arizona | 0.704 | 0.978 | 0.679 | 0.960 | 0.051 | 0.954 | -0.119 | 0.409 | 0.520 | -0.554 | 66.644 |
20 | Stanford | 0.889 | 0.557 | 0.119 | 0.527 | 1.129 | 0.392 | 0.645 | 0.888 | 0.489 | 0.492 | 64.240 |
21 | West Virginia | 0.704 | -0.180 | 0.572 | 1.109 | 1.860 | 0.282 | 0.957 | -0.335 | 1.357 | -0.381 | 62.433 |
22 | Oklahoma | -0.220 | 0.712 | 0.740 | 1.599 | -0.083 | 1.495 | 0.930 | 1.930 | 0.721 | 0.105 | 60.388 |
23 | BYU | 0.889 | 0.012 | -0.252 | 0.209 | 2.462 | 0.162 | 1.394 | 0.215 | 0.844 | -0.989 | 58.544 |
24 | Miami (FL) | 0.704 | 2.008 | -0.468 | -0.427 | 0.496 | 0.224 | 1.010 | -0.238 | -0.136 | -0.011 | 56.202 |
25 | Oregon | 0.889 | 0.674 | 1.385 | 0.236 | -1.130 | 0.853 | -0.154 | 0.784 | -0.114 | 0.632 | 55.628 |
26 | North Carolina St. | 0.150 | -0.341 | -0.011 | 1.570 | 1.325 | 1.707 | 0.920 | 0.759 | 0.341 | 1.326 | 53.800 |
27 | Georgia Tech | 0.889 | 0.748 | -0.621 | 0.254 | 1.062 | -0.062 | 1.499 | 0.085 | 0.420 | -0.054 | 52.842 |
28 | UCLA | 0.704 | 0.595 | 1.451 | 0.856 | -1.225 | 1.061 | -0.730 | 1.056 | -1.228 | 0.711 | 48.375 |
29 | Missouri | 1.629 | -1.876 | 0.490 | 0.096 | 0.598 | -0.022 | 1.696 | 1.056 | 1.165 | -0.515 | 43.974 |
30 | Utah | 0.704 | -0.523 | 1.432 | 0.069 | -0.384 | 0.854 | -0.040 | 0.603 | 0.847 | 2.601 | 42.607 |
31 | Wake Forest | 0.150 | 1.284 | -0.203 | 0.161 | 1.071 | -0.139 | 1.024 | 0.500 | 0.458 | -0.645 | 41.856 |
32 | Boston College | 0.889 | -0.309 | 0.450 | 0.817 | -0.629 | 0.865 | 0.242 | 1.069 | -0.796 | 1.297 | 38.831 |
33 | Idaho | 0.889 | -0.001 | -1.092 | 0.632 | 1.792 | -0.016 | 0.997 | -0.251 | 0.414 | -2.029 | 38.739 |
34 | South Carolina | 0.889 | -0.751 | 0.605 | 0.527 | -0.238 | 1.320 | -0.121 | 0.888 | -0.105 | 0.153 | 38.456 |
35 | Mississippi | 0.704 | -1.306 | 1.752 | 0.443 | -0.132 | 1.115 | -0.070 | 1.671 | -0.084 | 1.962 | 38.363 |
Don't let the decimal points freak you out if you're not a numbers person. In the W SUM column (the actual blogpoll rankings), everything up to the decimal point is really all you need.