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RTT BlogPoll Computer Rankings: Week 11 Draft

By David Hooper

Here is the rough draft for RTT's BlogPoll Ballot.  As always, the rough is taken straight from the computer rankings.  We will then use feedback and human judgment to make adjustments - and there are some adjustments that will be virtually mandatory this week.

Rank Team Delta
1 Florida
2 Texas
3 Alabama 1
4 TCU 1
5 Georgia Tech 2
6 Cincinnati
7 Boise State 2
8 Ohio State 6
9 Virginia Tech 9
10 Penn State 5
11 Pittsburgh
12 Oregon 2
13 Iowa 5
14 Brigham Young 3
15 Oklahoma
16 LSU 3
17 Arizona 8
18 Miami (Florida) 5
19 Oklahoma State 5
20 Nebraska 3
21 Oregon State
22 Wisconsin
23 Clemson
24 Southern Cal 12
25 Stanford
Last week's ballot
Dropped Out: Houston (#16), Utah (#20), West Virginia (#25).

 

Wow.  Lots of movement.  Topics of discussion follow, as well as all of the computer data.

  • Despite yesterday's trouncing, Alabama moves above TCU.  I can go either way with this, honestly, but I don't see that there's a reason to change things.  Looking at the scores below, you'll notice that the top four are way out in front.  At least in my poll, if TCU wins out, they'll be one of those four.
  • Georgia Tech has the Strength of Schedule.  They move up above Cincy and Boise becuase their SOS is more than compensating for their one loss.  The numbers are all close, but about the only way to make the computers change things is to weight W/L to near-absurdity.  But I wouldn't mind overriding here and keeping the undefeateds up.  It's not like Cincy and Boise look bad.
  • CPUs love Big Ten.  Because the Big Ten plays defense, man.  That, or offenses in the conferences are so bad that their defensive metrics skew.  And since offenses are underrated (an offseason fix), it does help Big Ten teams.  Scan through and make arguments for adjustments.
  • Oklahoma?  Oddly enough, their numbers are sky-high except for wins.  The Sooners still obliterate lesser foes, which really helps their metrics, but lose to tougher teams.  Should they slide down?  If so, how far?
  • Stanford and Southern Cal  Ok, I'm not about to go all AP Poll on you and leave that one alone.  Stanford clearly deserves the higher ranking.  Even without feedback, I will bump Stanford above USC.  The rest, however, will depend on feedback.  North Carolina is #26 and very close.  Should I bring them back in and drop USC out?  How far up should Stanford go?  Deep questions.
  • I'm sure there are others.  Those are the ones that caught my eye during a quick scan.  Feel free to open up discussion on other teams.

The Data

UPDATE:  Here are the numbers in Excel 2003 and Excel 2007 forms.

Untitled Document
Rank Team WL SOS PED RD 3DO TD PEO OPPG TO 3DD SCORE
1 Florida 1.968 0.618 2.172 1.224 0.690 2.251 1.613 2.064 0.891 2.114 153.446
2 Texas 1.968 0.231 1.707 2.253 1.159 2.279 0.817 1.762 0.896 2.525 150.033
3 Alabama 1.968 0.936 2.110 1.728 -0.424 2.157 0.425 2.007 0.694 1.713 144.787
4 TCU 1.968 0.259 1.612 1.390 0.643 2.060 1.843 1.718 1.581 1.890 141.955
5 Georgia Tech 1.584 1.271 -0.753 0.687 2.114 0.291 1.940 0.183 1.263 -0.380 106.578
6 Cincinnati 1.968 -0.074 0.728 0.317 0.488 0.478 2.381 1.141 1.766 -0.036 101.589
7 Boise St. 1.968 -0.697 1.380 0.790 -0.258 1.174 2.344 1.141 1.168 1.133 100.400
8 Ohio St. 1.201 0.236 1.607 1.471 0.353 1.827 0.010 1.796 -0.166 1.295 98.301
9 Virginia Tech 0.702 1.811 1.872 -0.023 -0.057 1.019 1.195 1.185 -0.010 1.037 95.858
10 Penn St. 1.201 -0.478 1.354 1.233 1.663 1.588 0.473 1.900 0.443 0.963 93.810
11 Pittsburgh 1.546 0.035 0.184 1.027 0.950 0.845 1.737 1.041 0.568 0.532 91.660
12 Oregon 1.124 1.617 1.394 0.363 -0.743 0.887 0.123 0.565 0.645 0.629 89.079
13 Iowa 1.201 0.661 1.673 0.417 0.142 1.198 -0.356 1.140 -0.589 0.188 82.904
14 BYU 1.124 -0.334 -0.362 1.008 3.024 0.449 2.215 0.464 1.237 -0.793 81.377
15 Oklahoma 0.280 0.471 1.572 1.465 0.364 1.755 0.230 1.834 1.013 1.141 77.587
16 LSU 1.124 0.747 1.157 0.460 -0.009 0.896 0.164 1.603 -1.215 0.396 76.913
17 Arizona 0.562 1.294 0.337 0.975 0.914 1.012 0.147 0.374 0.900 0.861 75.650
18 Miami (FL) 0.702 1.463 0.279 0.570 0.827 0.619 0.727 0.089 0.476 0.278 75.556
19 Oklahoma St. 1.124 0.033 0.690 1.334 0.522 0.511 0.849 0.608 0.393 0.790 73.877
20 Nebraska 0.702 0.060 1.943 1.210 -0.029 1.447 -0.117 1.992 -0.446 0.963 73.527
21 Oregon St. 0.702 1.289 -0.328 1.034 1.255 0.137 0.997 0.204 0.519 0.365 72.618
22 Wisconsin 1.124 0.060 -0.133 1.099 1.367 0.972 0.404 0.320 0.563 0.403 69.759
23 Clemson 0.702 0.851 1.360 0.340 -0.141 1.113 -0.088 0.997 -0.129 0.492 66.355
24 Southern California 0.702 1.773 0.942 0.256 -0.943 0.282 0.067 0.449 0.386 0.299 64.836
25 Stanford 0.702 1.391 -0.412 0.188 1.115 -0.350 1.225 0.089 1.191 -0.186 62.351
26 North Carolina 0.702 0.374 1.402 1.228 -0.457 1.658 -1.202 1.242 -1.431 1.426 60.044
27 Utah 1.124 -0.164 1.330 -0.105 -0.006 0.678 0.497 0.651 0.357 1.526 58.614
28 West Virginia 0.702 0.426 0.512 0.598 0.833 0.375 0.473 0.521 0.261 0.732 57.537
29 Mississippi 0.702 -0.001 1.364 0.324 0.116 0.875 -0.269 1.286 0.481 2.116 54.387
30 Navy 0.817 -0.146 0.114 0.295 1.505 0.434 0.741 0.537 -0.445 0.695 49.250
31 Air Force 0.434 -0.941 1.511 0.212 0.914 1.704 0.362 1.665 -0.310 1.835 45.268
32 California 0.702 1.126 -0.480 0.994 -0.582 -0.166 0.181 0.348 0.409 0.299 44.551
33 Boston College 0.702 0.523 0.565 0.865 -1.081 0.638 -0.275 0.911 -0.775 1.115 42.701
34 Central Mich. 1.124 -1.524 0.457 0.642 1.265 0.389 0.980 0.983 0.409 0.213 42.663
35 Auburn 0.434 0.602 0.838 -0.544 0.256 0.071 1.063 -0.315 1.117 0.924 40.506
36 Tennessee -0.141 0.871 1.349 0.080 -0.302 0.844 0.385 0.521 0.167 0.751 36.823
37 South Carolina 0.050 1.246 0.519 0.033 -0.172 0.949 -0.299 0.589 -0.387 0.185 35.876
38 Georgia 0.280 1.269 -0.502 0.614 -0.087 0.508 0.155 -0.156 -0.611 0.707 35.390
39 South Fla. 0.562 -0.291 0.905 0.296 -0.449 0.755 0.898 0.823 -0.335 0.102 34.526
40 Notre Dame 0.280 0.993 -0.521 -0.157 0.121 -0.474 1.615 0.219 1.308 0.142 31.420
41 Missouri 0.280 0.446 -0.066 1.017 -0.551 0.382 0.504 0.233 0.229 -0.416 28.329
42 Texas Tech 0.280 -0.067 0.473 0.274 0.203 0.174 0.948 0.190 1.487 -0.329 28.240
43 Rutgers 1.030 -1.592 0.691 1.132 -0.661 1.020 -0.191 1.335 -0.580 1.249 26.891
44 UCLA -0.141 1.599 0.643 -0.047 -0.961 0.389 -0.575 0.493 -0.580 0.921 24.481
45 Nevada 0.702 -0.573 -1.838 0.959 2.132 -0.862 0.521 -0.199 2.521 -0.041 20.808
46 Michigan St. 0.050 0.261 -0.413 0.952 -0.263 0.215 1.065 0.183 0.627 -0.645 18.512
47 Arkansas 0.280 0.826 -0.950 0.324 -0.813 -0.848 1.791 -0.099 1.271 0.275 17.457
48 Northwestern 0.434 -1.050 0.045 0.487 1.395 0.315 -0.046 0.314 0.051 0.668 15.477
49 Fresno St. 0.280 0.057 0.087 -1.226 1.224 -0.562 1.231 -0.084 1.193 0.102 15.348
50 Kentucky 0.280 0.175 1.162 -0.729 0.061 0.349 -1.306 0.449 -0.484 -0.190 12.899
51 Temple 1.124 -1.728 0.207 0.921 -0.442 0.729 -0.503 0.521 -0.902 0.416 12.786
52 Florida St. -0.141 1.791 -1.317 -1.094 1.533 -1.279 1.079 -0.834 1.053 -0.423 12.772
53 Houston 1.124 -0.720 -0.805 -1.566 1.548 -1.720 1.504 -0.863 3.266 -0.816 10.746
54 Arizona St. -0.563 0.979 0.665 0.961 -1.272 1.077 -1.197 0.550 -0.691 1.426 9.320
55 East Carolina 0.093 0.085 -0.079 0.554 0.557 0.055 -1.146 0.422 -0.637 0.013 7.173
56 UCF 0.280 -0.349 -0.661 1.524 -0.365 0.057 0.088 0.392 -0.972 -0.735 5.845
57 Kansas -0.141 -0.282 0.139 0.450 0.376 0.207 0.247 -0.012 0.770 0.093 4.683
58 Southern Miss. 0.280 -1.368 -0.109 0.872 0.323 0.019 1.088 0.190 0.650 0.259 2.997
59 Wake Forest -0.717 1.400 -0.202 -0.623 0.647 -0.231 0.649 -0.106 0.288 -0.605 2.868
60 Northern Ill. 0.702 -2.593 -0.111 0.874 0.858 0.844 0.456 1.113 -0.493 -0.048 0.383
61 Idaho 0.434 -0.288 -1.518 -0.197 1.601 -0.884 1.285 -1.324 1.166 -2.726 -0.932
62 Minnesota 0.050 0.747 0.008 -0.201 -0.409 -0.323 -0.545 -0.132 -1.313 -1.510 -1.408
63 Connecticut -0.376 0.835 -0.803 0.293 -0.153 -0.049 -0.114 0.181 0.540 0.416 -2.035
64 La.-Monroe 0.280 -1.538 0.286 0.928 0.437 0.154 -0.032 -0.300 0.444 0.105 -2.644
65 Washington -0.985 2.568 -1.409 -0.452 1.441 -1.013 -0.304 -0.892 -0.360 -0.868 -5.151
66 Troy 0.702 -0.912 -0.867 0.171 -0.146 -0.820 0.620 -0.618 1.407 0.057 -5.406
67 Ohio 0.702 -1.728 1.074 -0.030 -0.966 0.344 -0.416 0.565 -0.998 0.804 -6.431
68 Purdue -0.717 0.720 0.625 -0.583 0.516 -0.096 -0.251 -0.721 0.329 -0.193 -7.513
69 Kansas St. 0.050 -0.453 -0.349 0.954 -0.752 0.291 -0.292 0.131 -0.426 -0.340 -8.428
70 Duke -0.141 -0.191 0.073 -0.220 -0.307 0.356 0.294 -0.185 -0.312 -0.380 -9.393
71 Middle Tenn. 0.702 -1.730 0.810 -0.016 -1.048 0.007 -0.545 0.075 0.912 0.707 -10.498
72 Texas A&M -0.141 0.091 -0.676 -0.429 1.347 -1.130 0.280 -1.324 1.312 0.105 -10.952
73 Marshall -0.141 -0.108 0.310 -0.230 -0.097 -0.274 -0.888 0.464 -0.869 -0.336 -14.369
74 Mississippi St. -0.563 1.233 0.130 -0.267 -1.530 0.038 -1.182 -0.055 -0.195 0.695 -15.817
75 North Carolina St. -0.563 -0.399 -0.657 0.363 1.029 0.306 0.600 -0.877 0.616 -0.682 -16.188
76 Bowling Green -0.141 -0.322 0.356 -1.214 0.415 -0.308 0.006 -0.315 0.265 0.877 -16.456
77 Iowa St. 0.050 -0.252 -0.332 -0.465 0.358 -0.691 -1.023 0.471 -0.300 -0.045 -18.791
78 SMU 0.280 -0.327 0.548 -0.408 -1.937 -0.688 0.081 -0.661 -0.003 -0.702 -19.980
79 Virginia -0.985 1.438 1.172 -0.448 -1.451 0.315 -1.896 0.118 -1.983 0.591 -20.811
80 Baylor -0.563 0.516 0.232 -0.480 -0.559 -0.587 -0.289 -0.300 -0.548 -0.785 -24.383
81 Tulsa -0.376 -1.215 -0.302 0.593 -0.679 -0.345 1.132 0.214 0.481 0.373 -30.596
82 Louisville -0.563 0.428 -0.912 -0.101 -0.551 0.208 -0.881 0.017 -0.693 0.080 -30.789
83 Wyoming -0.141 -0.060 -0.296 -0.138 -0.941 -0.416 -1.383 -0.257 -1.085 -0.066 -33.598
84 Louisiana Tech -0.985 -0.028 0.198 -0.670 0.488 -0.178 -0.319 -0.156 -0.315 0.262 -35.453
85 San Diego St. -0.563 -0.446 -0.286 -0.490 0.680 -0.284 0.024 -0.747 -0.690 -1.413 -35.963
86 Michigan -0.333 -0.666 -0.448 -0.427 0.106 -0.642 -0.059 -0.472 0.229 0.121 -37.050
87 Buffalo -0.985 -0.982 0.099 0.239 0.554 0.113 -0.016 -0.199 0.629 -0.737 -39.697
88 Kent St. -0.141 -1.818 0.397 0.549 -1.593 0.139 -0.600 0.507 -0.588 0.100 -44.103
89 Hawaii -0.563 -0.752 -0.838 -1.120 1.230 -0.799 0.351 -0.819 1.517 -0.859 -45.144
90 Illinois -0.985 0.353 -0.547 -0.314 0.017 -0.644 -0.965 -0.171 -0.154 -1.041 -45.912
91 Indiana -0.717 0.028 -0.533 -0.369 -0.291 -0.770 -0.281 -0.564 -0.395 -1.741 -46.336
92 Colorado -0.985 0.437 -0.385 -0.218 -0.658 -0.185 -1.514 -0.560 -1.186 0.760 -49.207
93 Syracuse -0.985 0.541 -1.700 1.109 -1.766 0.167 -0.580 -0.257 -1.300 0.513 -49.455
94 Colorado St. -0.985 0.697 -1.157 0.014 -1.124 -0.557 -0.238 -0.920 -0.526 -3.136 -54.106
95 UAB -0.141 -0.749 -1.393 0.049 -0.842 -1.861 0.703 -0.992 0.495 -1.554 -54.325
96 Toledo -0.563 -0.729 -0.226 -0.705 -0.210 -1.215 0.318 -2.088 0.946 -1.475 -56.429
97 Vanderbilt -1.484 0.722 0.575 -1.196 -0.709 0.103 -2.362 0.314 -1.248 0.264 -59.388
98 La.-Lafayette -0.141 -1.723 -0.538 -0.670 0.488 -0.702 -0.756 -0.733 -0.569 -1.067 -59.955
99 Western Mich. -0.333 -1.382 -0.594 -0.796 0.282 -1.272 -0.199 -0.459 0.045 -0.260 -60.449
100 Maryland -1.407 0.907 -1.155 -0.049 -0.475 -0.637 -0.984 -1.137 -1.195 -0.190 -62.240
101 Utah St. -0.985 -0.363 -0.321 -1.273 -0.689 -1.264 0.280 -0.848 1.038 -0.823 -68.439
102 UNLV -0.717 0.195 -1.513 -1.985 1.179 -1.634 -0.550 -1.206 -0.557 -2.176 -68.752
103 Army -0.563 -1.929 0.140 0.120 -1.537 1.167 -1.684 0.219 -1.694 -0.084 -68.869
104 Fla. Atlantic -0.844 -0.978 -1.209 -1.980 1.150 -1.362 0.404 -1.452 1.178 -0.214 -77.559
105 Arkansas St. -1.313 -1.500 -0.477 0.681 -1.237 0.198 -0.592 0.454 -0.811 -0.816 -81.076
106 Miami (OH) -1.867 0.453 -0.456 -0.834 -0.638 -0.199 -1.011 -1.245 -0.687 -0.437 -82.625
107 Tulane -0.985 -0.620 -2.027 -1.284 0.852 -0.857 -0.280 -1.685 -0.762 -1.750 -88.098
108 UTEP -0.985 -0.738 -1.062 -1.469 0.312 -1.758 -0.766 -1.483 0.666 -1.222 -90.797
109 North Texas -1.407 -1.448 -0.315 -1.026 0.671 -0.947 -0.088 -1.901 0.717 0.066 -90.813
110 Akron -1.407 -0.817 -0.051 -0.680 -1.552 0.026 -1.160 -0.574 -1.621 -1.233 -93.860
111 Memphis -1.407 -0.718 -1.394 -0.855 -0.730 -1.309 -0.486 -1.180 -0.024 0.261 -103.762
112 New Mexico St. -0.985 -1.120 0.111 -1.071 -1.346 -0.639 -2.834 -0.646 -2.563 -0.790 -104.036
113 FIU -0.985 -0.991 -0.603 -2.156 -0.674 -2.221 -1.193 -1.238 -0.991 -0.237 -113.719
114 San Jose St. -1.782 1.237 -0.591 -3.330 -1.575 -1.931 -0.887 -1.741 -1.765 -1.582 -117.676
115 Washington St. -1.829 1.931 -1.609 -1.931 -2.778 -2.581 -1.300 -2.045 -2.052 -0.303 -121.803
116 Ball St. -1.829 -1.475 -1.322 -0.201 -0.571 -0.056 -1.975 -0.545 -1.270 0.146 -122.945
117 New Mexico -2.250 -0.058 -1.484 -0.272 -1.535 -1.022 -1.066 -1.512 -1.135 -1.687 -127.599
118 Rice -1.829 -0.053 -2.164 -1.055 -1.300 -1.490 -1.407 -2.406 -1.302 -0.876 -136.055
119 Eastern Mich. -2.250 -0.688 -1.047 -3.127 -0.664 -1.267 -1.763 -1.959 -1.834 -0.982 -163.724
120 Western Ky. -2.250 -0.962 -2.585 -2.838 -1.522 -2.492 -1.299 -2.506 -0.936 -2.539 -198.389

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