A weekly look at our upcoming opponent's recent history, with animated drive charts and links to SB Nation game pages.
This is a long post full of moving pictures and stats, so I'm putting the conclusions and predictions both at the beginning and at the end.
Conclusions
- To say Vanderbilt's passing attack is woeful is generous. They have had some success running the ball this season, though, so expect them to live or die with that.
- The Commodores do an excellent job defending the pass, but have a Montario Hardesty-sized and -shaped hole in the running game. It's perfect for us!
- Special teams should be an absolute battle of averages. They're nothing special, but neither are we.
- Watch out for Warren Norman. Challenging Herschel Walker's freshman all-purpose record while dressed in a Vandy uniform is cause for amazement.
Predictions
- Tennessee 24, Vanderbilt 6
Schedule and Animated Drive Charts
 |
||||
| Western Carolina Catamounts | 9/5/09 | win 45 - 0 | coverage | |
| @ LSU Tigers | 9/12/09 | loss 9 - 23 | coverage | |
| Mississippi St. Bulldogs | 9/19/09 | loss 3 - 15 | coverage | |
| @ Rice Owls | 9/26/09 | win 36 - 17 | coverage | |
| Mississippi Rebels | 10/3/09 | loss 7 - 23 | coverage | |
| @ Army Black Knights | 10/10/09 | loss 13 - 16 | coverage | |
| Georgia Bulldogs | 10/17/09 | loss 10 - 34 | coverage | |
| @ South Carolina Gamecocks | 10/24/09 | loss 10 - 14 | coverage | |
| Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 10/31/09 | loss 31 - 56 | coverage | |
| @ Florida Gators | 11/7/09 | loss 3 - 27 | coverage | |
| Kentucky Wildcats | 11/14/09 | loss 13 - 24 | coverage | |
Vanderbilt and Tennessee against common opponents:
National Unit Rankings
Now on to the national rankings.
|
OFFENSIVE RANKINGS
|
|||||||
|
Category
|
National
Rank |
Actual
|
National
Leader |
Actual
|
Conf
Rank |
Southeastern
Conference Leader |
Actual
|
| Rushing Offense |
47
|
163.36
|
Nevada |
353.10
|
7
|
Florida |
230.60
|
| Passing Offense |
113
|
144.73
|
Houston |
428.20
|
12
|
Arkansas |
310.00
|
| Total Offense |
108
|
308.09
|
Houston |
562.60
|
12
|
Arkansas |
450.10
|
| Scoring Offense |
114
|
16.36
|
Boise St. |
43.60
|
12
|
Arkansas |
37.60
|
| Passing Efficiency |
119
|
89.31
|
Cincinnati |
170.01
|
12
|
Arkansas |
159.97
|
| Sacks Allowed |
T-64
|
2.00
|
Boise St. |
.50
|
8
|
Alabama |
.90
|
Offensive observations. Yikes for them. A mediocre rushing attack coupled with a rotten passing attack that sifts out to triple digit national rankings in the majority of offensive statistical categories. I repeat: Yikes on them.
|
DEFENSIVE RANKINGS
|
|||||||
|
Category
|
National
Rank |
Actual
|
National
Leader |
Actual
|
Conf
Rank |
Southeastern
Conference Leader |
Actual
|
| Rushing Defense |
107
|
197.55
|
Texas |
50.40
|
12
|
Alabama |
72.80
|
| Pass Efficiency Defense |
33
|
115.47
|
Florida |
87.18
|
8
|
Florida |
87.18
|
| Total Defense |
60
|
357.36
|
Texas |
232.30
|
9
|
Florida |
233.90
|
| Scoring Defense |
47
|
22.64
|
Florida |
10.50
|
8
|
Florida |
10.50
|
| Pass Defense |
7
|
159.82
|
Air Force |
127.91
|
2
|
Florida |
139.60
|
| Sacks |
67
|
1.82
|
Pittsburgh |
4.10
|
8
|
Florida |
2.90
|
| Tackles For Loss |
56
|
5.82
|
Cincinnati |
8.80
|
10
|
Mississippi |
7.20
|
Defensive observations. Well, this is better. Vandy is excellent at defending the pass, so much so that when balanced with their rotten rush defense, the total defense climbs all the way up to middle-of-the-pack. Of course, that means that they have a huge hole in their defense, one that is oddly sized and shaped just like Montario Hardesty.
|
SPECIAL TEAMS AND TURNOVERS RANKINGS
|
|||||||
|
Category
|
National
Rank |
Actual
|
National
Leader |
Actual
|
Conf
Rank |
Southeastern
Conference Leader |
Actual
|
| Net Punting |
70
|
35.28
|
Georgia |
43.73
|
7
|
Georgia |
43.73
|
| Punt Returns |
115
|
3.96
|
Central Mich. |
18.47
|
12
|
LSU |
16.23
|
| Kickoff Returns |
40
|
23.15
|
Stanford |
30.78
|
9
|
Florida |
26.12
|
| Turnover Margin |
48
|
.27
|
Rutgers |
2.33
|
6
|
Arkansas |
1.20
|
Special teams and turnovers observations. Eh. Okay at kickoff returns and turnovers. Not so much at punting and the opposite of okay (inokay? imokay? non-okay? misokay? malokay?) at returning punts.
Stastical Comparison
Here's how the two teams stack up against each other in each of the key statistical categories in Hooper's wizbang BlogPoll Computerer:
|
Team
|
WL
|
SOS
|
PED
|
RD
|
3DO
|
TD
|
PEO
|
OPPG
|
TO
|
3DD
|
RTT RANK
|
 |
64
|
24
|
17
|
60
|
72
|
25
|
41
|
31
|
57
|
25
|
36
|
|
112
|
30
|
33
|
107
|
93
|
60
|
119
|
47
|
108
|
47
|
97
|
Well that's the first time this season that that's happened. All orange make Jackson say woo. Vandy's not shabby on defense, though.
Players to watch for
| Category | Player | National Rank |
Actual |
| Rushing | Warren Norman | 75 | 64.55 |
| Zac Stacy | 49.11 | ||
| Passing Efficiency (Min. 15 Att./Game) | Larry Smith | 88.01 | |
| Total Offense | Larry Smith | 148.78 | |
| Warren Norman | 64.55 | ||
| Zac Stacy | 49.11 | ||
| Receptions Per Game | Cole | 3.56 | |
| Receiving Yards Per Game | Cole | 37.67 | |
| Interceptions | Myron Lewis | T-39 | .36 |
| Punting (Min. 3.6 Punts/Game) | Brett Upson | 24 | 43.25 |
| Punt Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game) | Alex Washington | 54 | 4.72 |
| Kickoff Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game) | Warren Norman | 29 | 26.73 |
| Field Goals | Ryan Fowler | T-45 | 1.18 |
| Scoring | Ryan Fowler | 5.27 | |
| Warren Norman | 3.82 | ||
| All-Purpose Runners | Warren Norman | 13 | 162.64 |
| Sacks | Theron Kadri | .33 | |
| Greg Billinger | .32 | ||
| Tackles | Chris Marve | T-16 | 10.00 |
| Patrick Benoist | 89 | 7.73 | |
| Brent Trice | 7.00 | ||
| Sean Richardson | 6.91 | ||
| Tackles For Loss | Casey Hayward | .77 |
Observations
Running backs. All you really need to know here is this: "Stormin'" Warren Norman (1,789 yards) is very close to breaking Herschel Walker's freshman all-purpose yards record (1,805 yards), and it looks like he's going to get it against us. Nice. Still, that is about all they can do on offense.
Quarterbacks. Larry Smith is their quarterback. That is all. Wait. That is not all. Vandy's passing efficiency is the second-worst in the FBS. Now that is all.
Receivers/Tight Ends. Heh. Just who is this mysterious "Cole?" Poor man is missing his first name. Or his last name. And his position and class as well, unless "null" is oneathem fancy new classifications of the modern educational system. Now that I think about it, Nu'Keese Richardson's and Mike Edwards's positions and classes might as well be "null," too.
Defense. Sophomore linebacker Chris Marve is tied for 10th in the nation in tackling, and he's forced three fumbles this season. Theron Kadri and Greg Billinger combine to have nearly 2/3 of a sack per game. Perhaps the rounding occurred last week.
Special teams. Brett Upson is a solid punter, and there's that Norman guy again returning kickoffs. Somebody stop him because if he goes McCluster on us, well, I'd rather not think about that.
Head to Head Comparisons
|
|
Best Comparable
|
Result Against Best Comparable
|
Prediction
|
|
| UT rush v. Vandy rush defense |
161.30
(#51) |
197.55
(#107) |
Memphis
(183) (#101) |
137
|
180
|
| UT pass v. Vandy pass defense |
226.60
(#50) |
159.85
(#7) |
South Carolina
(163.64) (#8) |
142
|
140
|
| Vandy rush v. UT rush defense |
143.10
(#60) |
163.36
(#47) |
WKU
(177) (#38) |
34
|
100
|
| Vandy pass v. UT pass defense |
171.70
(#13) |
144.73
(#113) |
WKU
(148.70) (#110) |
49
|
120
|
| UT scoring offense v. Vandy scoring defense |
30.60
(#34) |
22.64
(#47) |
UCLA
(21.40) (#35) |
15
|
24
|
| Vandy scoring offense v. UT scoring defense |
21.20
(#31) |
16.36
(#114) |
WKU
(20.20) (#104) |
7
|
6
|
Again, not math, but informed guesses. I think we'll rush for more yards than we did against Memphis (because we came out passing against Memphis, but probably won't against Vandy) and have about as much success in the passing game against the 'Dores as we did against South Carolina. Based on how our defense has been playing the last six quarters, I can't believe that we'll strangle Vanderbilt like we did WKU. In the end, though, I feel pretty good about keeping them mostly off the scoreboard and hopefully out of the end zone and about us putting up points to within one score of our average.
Conclusions
- To say Vanderbilt's passing attack is woeful is generous. They have had some success running the ball this season, though, so expect them to live or die with that.
- The Commodores do an excellent job defending the pass, but have a Montario Hardesty-sized and -shaped hole in the running game. It's perfect for us!
- Special teams should be an absolute battle of averages. They're nothing special, but neither are we.
- Watch out for Warren Norman. Challenging Herschel Walker's freshman all-purpose record while dressed in a Vandy uniform is cause for amazement.
Predictions
- Tennessee 24, Vanderbilt 6