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RTT BlogPoll Computer Rankings: Week 10 Draft

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Here are the raw computer rankings for week 10.  This is, as always, a draft for the RTT BlogPoll Ballot.  Explanations and the full computer data follow after the jump.  Human intervention will be applied based solely on feedback.  I have my thoughts, but I'm hesitant to apply any changes without verification.  This late in the season, it's pretty well certain I won't change a number without support.

Thoughts

  • TCU Horned Frogs  As you'll see in the numbers below, TCU is only ahead of Alabama by a sliver.  The biggest difference is that TCU is significantly more successful on offense on third downs.  (If you're looking for evidence that Greg McElroy is not as good as some suppose, check his performance in must-pass situations.)  But otherwise it's indistinguishable here.  Texas really isn't ahead by much either.  But as always, the BCS championship game appears to belong to undefeated Texas and Florida/Alabama first, and our computers tend to agree.
  • Ohio State Buckeyes, Penn State Nittany Lions, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, and Iowa Hawkeyes  These four teams are clustered together in a virtual tie.  In fact, the difference between Ohio State at #7 and Iowa at #10 is roughly half that between TCU and Alabama.  Talk to me.  I'm listening.
  • Arizona Wildcats They just feel weird this high up.  But again, the heart of their schedule is yet to come.  They'll be either validated or destroyed in short order.
  • Oklahoma Sooners They don't feel like they should be in the top 25 at this point.  This is why I want feedback on...
  • ...Houston Cougars  This team officially breaks the model.  We've known for a while now that offense is underrepresented in our rankings (an issue we'll address in the offseason).  The thing is, most teams aren't so significantly different between the two units as to be affected.  Houston, however, has a +3.46 for Total Offense (Yow!) and a -1.82 for Total Defense.  Depending on how you would want to go about estimating this, reversing those two numbers (and their corresponding passing and rushing metrics) would have them in the top 25.  They probably should have lost to Tulsa this last weekend, but they didn't.  Help me figure out where they should go.  Even though they're at #43 in our computers, I want to move them in the top 25 and drop Oklahoma out.  I just need the verification.

Computer Data

Here is all of the data for all 120 teams.  If you're one who likes to play with the numbers, here is the chart in Excel 2003 form and in Excel 2007 form.

Untitled Document
Rank Team WL SOS PED RD 3DO TD PEO OPPG TO 3DD SCORE
1 Florida 1.951 0.390 2.173 1.097 0.840 2.190 1.712 2.015 1.039 1.974 148.938
2 Texas 1.951 0.035 1.692 2.093 1.139 2.218 0.967 1.692 0.905 2.646 144.361
3 TCU 1.951 0.203 1.650 1.291 0.437 2.053 2.089 1.861 1.385 1.760 139.435
4 Alabama 1.951 0.805 1.922 1.792 -0.388 2.025 0.165 1.784 0.621 1.382 136.679
5 Boise St. 1.951 -0.426 1.486 1.001 -0.144 1.530 2.019 1.199 1.112 1.300 110.070
6 Cincinnati 1.951 -0.130 0.842 0.460 0.550 0.547 2.417 1.138 1.803 -0.029 104.053
7 Ohio St. 1.110 0.259 1.691 1.391 0.252 1.825 0.023 1.864 -0.091 1.200 95.594
8 Penn St. 1.110 -0.177 1.469 1.085 1.384 1.648 0.599 1.919 0.475 1.122 95.571
9 Georgia Tech 1.531 1.348 -0.881 0.435 2.050 0.154 1.222 -0.035 1.109 -0.395 95.229
10 Iowa 1.531 0.490 1.709 0.614 0.263 1.190 -0.332 1.213 -0.509 0.329 94.059
11 Arizona 0.900 1.150 0.337 1.144 1.321 1.073 0.368 0.367 1.212 0.572 90.806
12 Oregon 1.017 1.905 1.298 0.205 -0.590 0.652 0.165 0.521 0.675 0.655 88.272
13 Pittsburgh 1.484 -0.153 0.181 0.892 1.270 0.866 1.801 1.045 0.512 0.620 88.188
14 Southern Cal 1.017 1.928 1.017 0.711 -1.182 0.483 0.206 0.922 0.497 0.733 85.604
15 Miami (FL) 1.017 1.353 0.275 0.516 0.807 0.585 1.182 0.198 0.400 0.238 85.208
16 BYU 1.017 -0.037 -0.403 0.929 3.122 0.459 2.215 0.383 1.385 -0.594 83.556
17 Virginia Tech 0.550 1.994 1.601 -0.098 -0.322 0.842 0.807 0.999 -0.225 0.816 83.306
18 LSU 1.017 1.096 1.072 0.555 0.220 0.870 0.414 1.553 -1.078 0.158 83.280
19 Utah 1.484 -0.813 1.413 0.356 0.257 1.061 0.673 1.138 0.563 1.831 72.058
20 Oregon St. 0.550 1.488 -0.260 1.043 0.993 -0.038 0.865 0.136 0.569 0.355 67.925
21 Wisconsin 1.017 0.343 -0.091 0.986 1.243 0.846 0.052 0.306 0.429 0.431 66.515
22 Nebraska 0.550 -0.116 1.963 1.180 -0.102 1.489 -0.164 1.984 -0.558 0.974 64.605
23 Oklahoma St. 1.017 -0.167 0.583 1.190 0.346 0.521 1.079 0.506 0.507 0.667 63.982
24 West Virginia 1.017 -0.104 0.652 0.807 0.868 0.525 0.426 0.521 0.253 0.701 62.100
25 Oklahoma 0.083 0.565 1.354 1.359 -0.047 1.617 -0.081 1.707 0.590 0.935 61.491
26 Clemson 0.550 0.858 1.406 0.320 -0.373 1.208 -0.401 1.014 -0.296 0.645 58.720
27 Stanford 0.550 1.369 -0.526 0.151 0.667 -0.451 1.257 0.013 1.114 -0.031 50.917
28 Tennessee 0.083 0.616 1.332 0.607 -0.159 1.133 0.557 0.798 0.373 1.030 50.369
29 Navy 0.690 0.005 0.098 0.358 1.394 0.456 0.564 0.450 -0.389 1.287 47.217
30 North Carolina 0.550 -0.135 1.324 1.245 -0.433 1.903 -1.262 1.292 -1.475 1.341 46.856
31 Mississippi 0.550 -0.088 1.395 0.200 -0.107 0.759 -0.194 1.229 0.296 2.067 44.163
32 Auburn 0.690 0.215 0.935 -0.578 0.300 0.022 1.012 -0.270 1.241 1.013 42.278
33 South Fla. 0.900 -0.878 0.939 0.336 -0.039 0.786 1.200 0.973 0.098 0.148 42.196
34 Central Mich. 1.017 -1.233 0.361 0.636 1.189 0.382 0.745 1.075 0.187 0.266 41.334
35 South Carolina 0.270 0.844 0.598 -0.013 0.025 0.954 -0.136 0.589 -0.199 0.115 38.746
36 Notre Dame 0.550 0.697 -0.484 -0.088 0.081 -0.405 1.809 0.244 1.474 -0.121 36.907
37 Air Force 0.270 -0.897 1.530 0.199 0.650 1.663 0.302 1.628 -0.655 1.533 36.786
38 California 0.550 1.082 -0.682 0.874 -0.341 -0.364 0.216 0.214 0.477 0.034 35.775
39 Texas Tech 0.550 -0.412 0.367 0.519 0.397 0.112 1.209 0.168 1.654 -0.137 34.814
40 Fresno St. 0.550 0.150 -0.034 -0.575 1.418 -0.357 1.024 0.306 1.106 0.589 34.216
41 Boston College 0.550 0.390 0.358 0.742 -0.899 0.547 -0.052 0.722 -0.709 1.098 33.743
42 Georgia 0.083 1.394 -0.401 0.563 -0.167 0.510 0.056 -0.202 -0.606 0.715 30.808
43 Houston 1.484 -0.785 -0.654 -1.752 1.553 -1.816 1.653 -0.756 3.463 -0.742 21.700
44 Michigan St. -0.150 0.355 -0.357 1.018 -0.024 0.483 1.013 0.340 0.696 -0.122 20.461
45 UCLA -0.384 2.115 0.462 -0.277 -1.120 0.060 -0.664 0.229 -0.985 0.501 15.412
46 Kansas 0.083 -0.463 0.183 0.638 0.462 0.292 0.439 0.060 0.915 0.173 13.886
47 Arizona St. -0.384 0.548 0.673 1.343 -1.374 1.189 -1.070 0.861 -0.440 1.290 13.072
48 Northwestern 0.270 -0.978 -0.119 0.652 1.521 0.336 -0.103 0.187 -0.068 0.492 11.447
49 Wake Forest -0.571 1.299 -0.047 -0.552 0.731 -0.140 0.853 0.090 0.170 -0.587 11.031
50 Missouri 0.083 0.066 -0.084 1.001 -0.681 0.371 0.191 0.029 0.135 -0.380 10.747
51 Rutgers 0.900 -1.834 0.544 0.893 -0.756 0.664 -0.125 0.991 -0.597 0.896 9.600
52 Troy 1.017 -1.298 -0.379 0.260 -0.097 -0.473 0.826 -0.202 1.377 0.221 9.391
53 Kentucky 0.083 0.562 1.064 -1.008 0.120 0.069 -1.132 0.274 -0.577 -0.338 8.588
54 Texas A&M 0.083 -0.282 -0.351 -0.246 1.852 -0.717 0.652 -0.819 1.716 0.626 7.716
55 Idaho 0.690 -0.601 -1.186 -0.247 1.615 -0.802 1.346 -0.894 1.013 -2.877 6.521
56 Arkansas 0.083 1.015 -1.222 0.208 -1.035 -0.760 1.295 -0.202 0.963 0.222 5.141
57 Kansas St. 0.270 -0.379 -0.046 0.983 -0.876 0.410 -0.288 0.298 -0.422 -0.236 3.958
58 Florida St. -0.384 1.928 -1.676 -1.036 1.546 -1.227 0.967 -0.865 1.025 -0.545 3.898
59 La.-Monroe 0.083 -0.841 0.110 1.118 0.445 0.185 0.105 -0.449 0.354 -0.421 3.806
60 Temple 1.017 -1.606 0.003 0.895 -0.764 0.549 -0.725 0.413 -1.041 0.356 2.917
61 Washington -0.851 2.614 -1.285 -0.453 1.556 -1.094 -0.397 -0.618 -0.200 -0.492 2.889
62 Northern Ill. 0.550 -2.181 -0.094 0.939 0.833 0.741 0.241 1.091 -0.250 0.151 2.595
63 East Carolina 0.083 -0.242 -0.091 0.516 0.546 0.035 -1.106 0.383 -0.635 -0.017 0.160
64 Duke 0.083 -0.750 0.453 0.135 -0.288 0.658 0.369 0.151 -0.161 -0.395 -0.624
65 Mississippi St. -0.384 0.968 0.408 -0.056 -1.210 0.174 -0.866 0.013 0.098 0.662 -3.360
66 Purdue -0.571 0.886 0.771 -0.655 0.003 -0.123 -0.365 -0.575 0.092 -0.436 -4.685
67 Connecticut -0.384 0.656 -0.795 0.257 -0.139 -0.066 -0.105 0.151 0.520 0.370 -6.045
68 Minnesota -0.150 1.084 -0.409 -0.489 -0.024 -0.589 -0.314 -0.326 -1.171 -1.989 -7.000
69 North Carolina St. -0.384 -0.699 -0.385 0.646 0.993 0.482 0.768 -0.680 0.665 -0.451 -7.226
70 Nevada 0.375 -0.694 -1.900 0.718 1.052 -1.031 0.612 -0.759 2.183 -0.300 -7.868
71 Southern Miss. 0.083 -1.508 -0.288 0.617 0.518 0.002 1.067 0.105 0.863 0.222 -8.590
72 Marshall 0.083 -0.125 0.405 -0.401 -0.050 -0.443 -0.790 0.506 -0.927 -0.519 -8.861
73 UCF 0.083 -0.703 -0.762 1.390 -0.517 0.155 -0.127 0.506 -1.097 -0.667 -10.968
74 Ohio 0.550 -1.673 1.144 -0.124 -1.075 0.499 -0.637 0.567 -1.109 0.771 -11.738
75 SMU 0.083 -0.118 0.749 -0.266 -1.773 -0.265 -0.060 -0.633 -0.126 -0.580 -14.966
76 Middle Tenn. 0.550 -1.489 0.721 -0.243 -1.285 -0.143 -0.708 -0.064 0.739 0.777 -18.976
77 Virginia -0.851 1.329 1.057 -0.505 -1.469 0.208 -1.783 -0.064 -2.017 0.382 -21.798
78 San Diego St. -0.384 -0.221 -0.054 -0.437 0.516 -0.169 0.080 -0.741 -0.720 -1.139 -23.092
79 Baylor -0.384 0.001 0.186 -0.365 -0.504 -0.561 -0.077 -0.003 -0.351 -0.738 -24.155
80 Iowa St. -0.150 -0.041 -0.485 -0.578 0.371 -0.711 -0.936 0.270 -0.215 -0.519 -24.511
81 Bowling Green -0.384 -0.044 0.051 -1.663 0.494 -0.479 -0.035 -0.525 0.336 1.083 -27.794
82 Michigan -0.150 -0.827 -0.193 -0.310 0.120 -0.525 -0.093 -0.242 0.435 0.283 -28.058
83 Tulsa -0.384 -1.261 -0.305 0.555 -0.648 -0.349 1.102 0.183 0.462 0.329 -32.253
84 Louisville -0.851 0.756 -1.104 -0.121 -0.118 0.024 -0.838 -0.248 -0.325 0.049 -33.404
85 Buffalo -0.851 -1.083 0.282 0.148 0.675 0.142 0.077 -0.202 0.555 -0.742 -34.653
86 Illinois -0.851 0.604 -0.513 -0.401 0.219 -0.561 -0.818 -0.265 -0.169 -1.198 -34.924
87 Louisiana Tech -0.851 -0.596 0.016 -0.793 0.813 -0.432 -0.109 -0.202 -0.244 0.025 -43.115
88 Indiana -0.571 -0.004 -0.651 -0.359 -0.401 -0.820 -0.214 -0.533 -0.380 -1.434 -44.012
89 Kent St. -0.150 -1.815 0.372 0.512 -1.530 0.116 -0.576 0.464 -0.587 0.066 -44.636
90 Colorado -0.851 0.369 -0.551 -0.152 -0.288 -0.317 -1.491 -0.741 -1.326 0.852 -46.073
91 La.-Lafayette 0.083 -1.806 -0.391 -0.412 0.513 -0.507 -0.622 -0.664 -0.465 -0.990 -47.278
92 Wyoming -0.384 -0.121 -0.357 -0.160 -1.373 -0.479 -1.638 -0.265 -1.324 0.124 -49.243
93 Toledo -0.384 -0.995 0.033 -0.764 -0.266 -1.058 0.464 -1.772 1.072 -1.404 -50.381
94 Syracuse -0.851 0.697 -1.825 0.900 -1.876 -0.237 -0.472 -0.525 -1.210 -0.009 -50.556
95 Hawaii -0.851 -0.249 -1.087 -1.308 1.378 -1.103 0.442 -1.187 1.439 -1.214 -51.747
96 Colorado St. -0.991 0.609 -1.140 -0.020 -1.077 -0.559 -0.226 -0.907 -0.526 -3.045 -55.440
97 Maryland -1.318 0.532 -0.914 0.091 -0.228 -0.479 -0.639 -1.064 -1.038 0.044 -55.983
98 Vanderbilt -1.411 0.502 0.399 -0.968 -0.643 0.152 -2.310 0.298 -1.063 0.227 -59.323
99 UNLV -0.571 -0.200 -1.515 -1.544 1.615 -1.435 -0.496 -1.018 -0.443 -1.864 -60.294
100 Western Mich. -0.571 -0.862 -0.707 -0.832 0.281 -1.374 -0.367 -0.658 -0.067 -0.188 -62.507
101 UAB -0.384 -0.675 -1.492 -0.093 -0.778 -1.887 0.021 -1.142 0.321 -1.869 -68.170
102 Arkansas St. -1.201 -1.337 -0.228 0.750 -1.268 0.267 -0.696 0.644 -0.830 -0.579 -70.613
103 Army -0.851 -1.433 0.112 0.568 -1.878 1.209 -2.389 0.090 -1.821 -0.009 -72.131
104 Utah St. -1.318 0.066 -0.454 -1.676 -0.697 -1.497 0.552 -1.172 1.021 -0.815 -77.591
105 Miami (OH) -1.832 0.721 -0.418 -0.949 -0.781 -0.255 -0.850 -1.198 -0.606 -0.530 -77.674
106 Tulane -0.851 -0.298 -1.799 -1.531 0.788 -1.002 -0.316 -1.772 -0.887 -2.510 -81.312
107 Akron -1.318 -0.717 0.091 -0.497 -1.593 0.084 -0.996 -0.156 -1.523 -1.020 -82.752
108 San Jose St. -1.651 2.066 -0.927 -2.279 -1.908 -1.535 -0.954 -1.453 -1.769 -0.749 -89.943
109 UTEP -0.851 -0.759 -0.950 -1.539 0.157 -1.775 -0.980 -1.449 0.236 -1.426 -90.469
110 Fla. Atlantic -1.201 -0.729 -1.250 -2.166 0.941 -1.545 0.199 -1.711 1.253 -0.348 -91.625
111 Memphis -1.318 -0.587 -0.920 -1.072 -0.576 -1.197 -0.537 -1.187 -0.147 0.154 -94.092
112 North Texas -1.318 -1.358 -0.342 -1.101 0.257 -1.236 -0.239 -1.895 0.512 -0.076 -94.766
113 New Mexico St. -0.851 -0.990 0.082 -1.290 -1.112 -0.479 -2.750 -0.726 -2.545 -0.872 -96.613
114 Washington St. -1.785 2.133 -1.772 -1.949 -2.484 -2.439 -1.135 -1.927 -1.866 -0.204 -113.046
115 FIU -1.318 -0.545 -0.496 -2.283 -0.582 -2.131 -1.197 -1.295 -0.857 0.221 -113.680
116 Ball St. -1.785 -1.717 -1.209 -0.290 -0.783 -0.338 -2.068 -0.587 -1.210 0.222 -130.110
117 New Mexico -2.252 -0.172 -1.425 -0.608 -1.924 -1.135 -1.150 -1.650 -1.212 -1.691 -137.847
118 Rice -2.252 0.283 -2.422 -1.215 -0.919 -1.551 -1.675 -2.666 -1.337 -0.786 -147.105
119 Eastern Mich. -2.252 -0.459 -0.756 -3.447 -0.794 -1.242 -1.750 -1.958 -1.982 -1.027 -160.721
120 Western Ky. -2.252 -0.815 -2.847 -2.801 -1.083 -2.559 -1.127 -2.759 -1.039 -2.678 -195.269